4 ms·

That’s the one. Thanks for linking it. Was he in denial? Lying? Clueless? I have no idea at this point. He seemed earnest and genuine, but everything he’s say

That’s the one. Thanks for linking it. Was he in denial? Lying? Clueless? I have no idea at this point. He seemed earnest and genuine, but everything he’s saying is the exact opposite of reality. Maybe he was having an anxiety attack. I had one once, and it completely sucks. It ruins your ability to form logical thoughts. (It’s rare to see someone so powerful be so confidently mistaken. The confidence is the part I’m struggling to figure out. There doesn’t seem to be much benefit for him to knowingly lie about FTX US not being impacted, so it seemed like something else was going on.)

ahelwer 4y ago
If he comes out the other side massively wealthy, then what was there to be "mistaken" about? You're extending an incredibly generous quantity of sympathy to someone that has absolutely not earned even a little of it. Speculating that he had an anxiety attack! I mean, really.
- sillysaurusx 4y ago
  It’s not really sympathy though. From a game theory perspective, what benefit did he get from saying FTX US wouldn’t be impacted? It seems like there was negative benefit: not only did it accomplish nothing in practice, but it couldn’t have helped even theoretically. So when someone does something like that, I can’t help but speculate.
  - ahelwer 4y ago
    It kept some number of people from withdrawing their funds from FTX US yesterday, leaving more money in the pot to return to other stakeholders. This has nothing to do with game theory, what would that even mean!?
    - shigawire 4y ago
      It's like saying modulo or orthogonal - people just parrot these words on HackerNews
  - ethanbond 4y ago
    More time to get his and his friends' money out?
    - sillysaurusx 4y ago
      Oh, good point. Thanks!
  - yunohn 4y ago
    Ah yes, yet another “game theory” perspective. Seriously, what is it with crypto enthusiasts and making everything about game theory? What does it even mean in reality?
    - bigDinosaur 4y ago
      It's a way of ignoring basic fundamentals and construing any move by anyone the way you want it because of 'rationality' as opposed to actual evidence or the most obvious reason.
  - mrguyorama 4y ago
    Stop assuming rich people are rational
skeeter2020 4y ago
AlexandrB 4y ago
> It’s rare to see someone so powerful be so confidently mistaken. I struggle to see how this could be true after 4 years of President Trump and Elon Musk's various undelivered promises. It's not rare, it seems to be extremely commonplace.
- TedShiller 4y ago
  Remember when Biden said the Hunter Biden laptop was fake? It is very common
  - peppermint_gum 4y ago
    >Remember when Biden said the Hunter Biden laptop was fake? I don't think Joe Biden has ever said that.
    - TedShiller 4y ago
      FBI was told not to investigate https://www.nationalreview.com/news/fbi-officials-told-agents-not-to-investigate-hunter-biden-laptop-ahead-of-2020-election-whistleblower-says/ https://www.nationalreview.com/news/fbi-officials-told-agent...
dottrap 4y ago
Rumors were that he was still trying to raise some kind of last minute savior financing after Binance backed out. If so, his best cards are to show that not everything he has is a shitshow and there may still be some real value financiers might be able to buy for pennies on the dollar if they save him from complete collapse.
gilrain 4y ago
> He seemed earnest and genuine, but everything he’s saying is the exact opposite of reality. Con man is short for “confidence” man for a reason. What they’re good at is gaining the unmerited confidence of others. You got played by his charisma. Remember this for next time.

ahelwer 4y ago

If he comes out the other side massively wealthy, then what was there to be "mistaken" about? You're extending an incredibly generous quantity of sympathy to someone that has absolutely not earned even a little of it. Speculating that he had an anxiety attack! I mean, really.

sillysaurusx 4y ago
It’s not really sympathy though. From a game theory perspective, what benefit did he get from saying FTX US wouldn’t be impacted? It seems like there was negative benefit: not only did it accomplish nothing in practice, but it couldn’t have helped even theoretically. So when someone does something like that, I can’t help but speculate.
- ahelwer 4y ago
  It kept some number of people from withdrawing their funds from FTX US yesterday, leaving more money in the pot to return to other stakeholders. This has nothing to do with game theory, what would that even mean!?
  - shigawire 4y ago
    It's like saying modulo or orthogonal - people just parrot these words on HackerNews
- ethanbond 4y ago
  More time to get his and his friends' money out?
  - sillysaurusx 4y ago
    Oh, good point. Thanks!
- yunohn 4y ago
  Ah yes, yet another “game theory” perspective. Seriously, what is it with crypto enthusiasts and making everything about game theory? What does it even mean in reality?
  - bigDinosaur 4y ago
    It's a way of ignoring basic fundamentals and construing any move by anyone the way you want it because of 'rationality' as opposed to actual evidence or the most obvious reason.
- mrguyorama 4y ago
  Stop assuming rich people are rational

skeeter2020 4y ago

AlexandrB 4y ago

> It’s rare to see someone so powerful be so confidently mistaken. I struggle to see how this could be true after 4 years of President Trump and Elon Musk's various undelivered promises. It's not rare, it seems to be extremely commonplace.

TedShiller 4y ago
Remember when Biden said the Hunter Biden laptop was fake? It is very common
- peppermint_gum 4y ago
  >Remember when Biden said the Hunter Biden laptop was fake? I don't think Joe Biden has ever said that.
  - TedShiller 4y ago
    FBI was told not to investigate https://www.nationalreview.com/news/fbi-officials-told-agents-not-to-investigate-hunter-biden-laptop-ahead-of-2020-election-whistleblower-says/ https://www.nationalreview.com/news/fbi-officials-told-agent...

dottrap 4y ago

Rumors were that he was still trying to raise some kind of last minute savior financing after Binance backed out. If so, his best cards are to show that not everything he has is a shitshow and there may still be some real value financiers might be able to buy for pennies on the dollar if they save him from complete collapse.

gilrain 4y ago

> He seemed earnest and genuine, but everything he’s saying is the exact opposite of reality. Con man is short for “confidence” man for a reason. What they’re good at is gaining the unmerited confidence of others. You got played by his charisma. Remember this for next time.