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Just want to point out that lists like these do suffer from <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias>.
by paulluuk 4y ago
Just want to point out that lists like these do suffer from <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias>.
Also: it's quite possible that luck and generational wealth is a huge factor to whether or not you become profitable, in which case their book recommendations may or may not be useful.
And finally: did these founders read these books _before_ they became profitable, or afterwards? As the website says: "a few [succesful founders] weren't into reading books at all"
- rroot 4y agoA brilliant XKCD for survivorship bias: https://m.xkcd.com/1827/ https://m.xkcd.com/1827/
- kkoncevicius 4y agoSurvivorship bias - yes; but I think it's still better than getting recommendations about books and productivity systems from people who do nothing but peddle advice.
- cinntaile 4y agoThis is a false dichotomy. And it is also not clear that these books had any effect on the company outcome.
- wyem 4y agoNo. If you see the quotes of the founders in the same article, a few have clearly discussed how the books had an impact on their business strategy. This is what I truly found insightful.
- readthenotes1 4y agoGiven the apparent lack of consistency (no book suggested by more than 3/100), the results seem pretty random. Not sure you wouldn't have done as well asking the advice peddlers for recommendations of other author's books.
- upen946 4y agoYeah, that's the core point.
- arvidkahl 4y agoThis is something I wondered about too, and always do when looking at recommendations, particularly by single individuals. What I like about this list in particular is that it clearly admits that reading these books by far does not guarantee anything. After all, they're recommendations. However, having read almost all of these books before and during my own entrepreneurial journey, I positively noticed the absence of many fluffy "self-help" types that usually get recommended for new founders (the Napoleon Hill kinds of monstrosities). This suggests that filtering who's recommendations to follow was a good idea. That suggests that no matter how much survivorship bias is in the books themselves, the act of recommending them indicates that the founder who read the book AND built a successful business found SOMETHING valuable in the work that they deem worth reading.
- upen946 4y agoThis is so true. Irrespective of whether the founder read the book before or after building the business, this still makes sense to see a recommendation from a successful founder.
- wyem 4y agoYeah, definitely. A few really good recommendations are actually in the quotes by the founders in the same article.
- blowski 4y agoIndeed. You'd view recommendations from Sam Bankman-Fried differently today compared to 3 months ago.
- eterevsky 4y agoYeah, in this light, it would be interesting to see the books that were recommended by the successful founders, but not recommended by unsuccessful ones.
- upen946 4y agoWell, the interviews are from successful founders only for now.
- 6502nerdface 4y agoWhat they should really do is collect book recommendations from ALL founders right when they start up (make it a required field in the incorporation paperwork, lol), then after N years, group them into the recommendations by failed founders and the recommendations by successful founders, and use a Chi-square test or something to select the most significant differences between the two sets of recommendations.
- upen946 4y agoHope you are kidding with this statement :)
- 6502nerdface 4y agoYes :). I'm just saying that it could theoretically be done properly in a way that addresses GP's criticisms, but it would be impractical.
- thaw13579 4y agoIt seems like an impractical but useful thought experiment, which I think makes a good point about why these lists should be taken with a grain of salt. To take things further, we could improve the experiment by randomly assigning books to founders when they start! HN folks are quick to point out when many scientific results as “correlation not causation”, and this isn’t any different, in my opinion.
- readthenotes1 4y agoIf only there was an organization with access to a bunch of founders just before they start up with OPM...
- yrgulation 4y ago> Just want to point out that lists like these do suffer from <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias>. Worse. These books are like porn. They are not real but a mimic the real act. No one I know and is rich can thank their success to reading these types of books. It's like people living to 100 when asked what helped them live that long and they come up with all sorts of made up reasons.
- wyem 4y agoWell, a few of the founders have clearly mentioned how their business has been influenced by their recommended book. It depends on the book. And of course reading alone doesn't make anyone successful. A good book is like having a mentor.
- yrgulation 4y agoHelps with sales. I would endorse books for a fee as well.
- chiefalchemist 4y agoReading is the closest thing we have to a Vulcan mindmeld. In terms of transfer it's faster than listing and watching. It's like having multiple mentors.
- flonkyflonk 4y agoMy immediate thought was a more useful list would be “Books recommended by repeatedly profitable founders”.
- wyem 4y agoIf you read the interviews, you'll find some of the founders are actually 'repeatedly profitable'!
- DebtDeflation 4y agoThis is a good HBR article on the topic, "Stop Reading Lists of Things Successful People Do": https://hbr.org/2017/03/stop-reading-lists-of-things-successful-people-do https://hbr.org/2017/03/stop-reading-lists-of-things-success... Most analyses show unsuccessful business people do all of the exact same things that successful business people do, at least when it comes to the sorts of things you find in these books.
- kamaal 4y agoIf you have the same routine as Mike Tyson, you are definitely guaranteed to not win the world boxing championship. But you can be sure it will make you very fit, healthy and a decent boxer along the way. You might not become the next Jeff Bezos and that is ok. Being the millionaire next door is good enough for most people. Besides nothing bad ever happened to anybody when they read more books, got more disciplined, did more exercise, eat healthy, took more proactive action and whatever it takes to improve their lives. Even the worst case scenario leaves you in a better state than where you started.
- pydry 4y agoElizabeth Holmes wore black turtlenecks, gave engaging speeches, was massively paranoid about secrecy and promised more than had currently been delivered. She slightly missed becoming Steve Jobs or a millionaire next door.
- whatshisface 4y agoThat's probably a bad example because she did succeed in replicating the part of Steve Jobs that really came from him, which was the ability to enthrall people with whatever was said, like some kind of guru.
- doorman2 4y agoYou’ve jumped to conclusions. “If you work out like Mike Tyson, then you’ll definitely get into shape.” Ok I agree. “If you act like Jeff Bezos, you’ll definitely become a millionaire.” How?
- chiefalchemist 4y agoGood point. And frankly, we can't even be sure they read the books, or at the very least what they took away from them. Don't get me wrong. I love such lists and am constantly on the hunt for new reading matetial. But there are flaws in these lists that are worth being aware of.