4 ms·

On the contrary, it’s a very, very good news for an average Joe. Every sufficiently advanced technology starts very expensive. Then capitalism and progress do t

by vtail 4y ago

On the contrary, it’s a very, very good news for an average Joe. Every sufficiently advanced technology starts very expensive. Then capitalism and progress do their job, and it becomes available for masses. The path to “make it cheaper” is generally easier than the path to “make it possible”.

marricks 4y ago
Couple points: - MRNA COVID vaccine patents weren’t open sourced or available for the third world but Cuba’s vaccine solutions are - simple things like dental care aren’t offered in the US I think you should replace “available for the masses” with available “to the middle classes” which may seem the same to the average HN reader but not the average inhabitant of our planet
- Firmwarrior 4y ago
  Good news: We cured cancer Bad news: Some people are still poor
  - smallnix 4y ago
    Good news: We will cure some people with cancer Bad news: We will not cure some people with cancer
    - praveen9920 4y ago
      Good news: We will cure some rich people with cancer Bad news: We will kill some rich people with cancer
  - marricks 4y ago
    I was directly calling out the bold and wrong claim that “it will be available for the masses” because that is entirely wrong. If I get cancer 10 years from now I could be in luck! But it doesn’t mean I should immediately assume everyone else is.
  - Tozen 4y ago
    Good news: We found new alternative methods to treat cancer Bad news: You need to be very rich and very lucky
- brigandish 4y ago
  > I think you should replace “available for the masses” with available “to the middle classes” which may seem the same to the average HN reader but not the average inhabitant of our planet The statistics simply don't back you up, as not only do the middle classes make up the vast majority of people on the planet now, but those coming from poverty into the middle class is increasing. The much missed Hans Rosling goes through it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JiYcV_mg6A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JiYcV_mg6A
- nine_k 4y ago
  MRNA vaccines are not banned to sell in poorer countries. They are currently just too expensive for them, I suppose. Once Moderna recoups the cost of R&D and pockets some profits, it will face the need to keep selling. With the pandemic basically over, they'll need to sell to wider markets, because they have the production capacity. They'll lower the price and try to use the economies of scale by selling large amounts. The fact that any technological advances first become available to those who can pay a high initial price (not only in money) is pretty inevitable. If something is a runaway success, the price goes down with volume, and ideally with pressure from competition. If you want to make something vitally important available at a low price, you have to find enough money to let the producers make some profit, or at least to recover the cost of development. If you don't, nobody will consider working on it, even if they wanted, because getting an investment would become impossible, and you can't do biotech on pocket money. (You could of course force them work at gunpoint, but not being forced to work at gunpoint is usually even more vitally important for the health of a society.)
  - chasil 4y ago
    Moderna was in the news this morning because heart problems are much higher with their vaccine. I think the R&D isn't quite done yet. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/04/though-rare-moderna-covid-vaccine-recipients-have-higher-risk-of-heart-inflammation-than-pfizer.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/04/though-rare-moderna-covid-va...
    - pmoriarty 4y ago
      This should stop absolutely nobody from vaccinating. From the article: "People face a much higher risk of developing myocarditis from Covid infection than the vaccines, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. The risk of myocarditis from Covid is 100 times higher than developing the condition after Covid vaccination, according to a recent paper in Nature Reviews Cardiology."
      - chasil 4y ago
        ...and for any other use, the safety profile is unacceptable. The R&D is far from done.
cmeacham98 4y ago
> Every sufficiently advanced technology starts very expensive. Then capitalism and progress do their job, and it becomes available for masses. http://media2.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2016_33/1676741/epipen_price_hike_chart_ea751a0276b621824fddbe7a26965984.nbcnews-ux-2880-1000.png http://media2.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2016_33/1676741/epipen...
- tjohns 4y ago
  There are generic epi-pens available now. With GoodRx (no insurance), retail price is now about $100 - and with insurance, it's sometimes closer to $0.
  - cmeacham98 4y ago
    While not as bad as $400, $100 would still be a significant price _increase_ compared to 2008 (even when accounting for inflation).
    - tjohns 4y ago
      Keep in mind $100 is the retail price, not the wholesale price (which is what's plotted on the above graph). I do not know what the current wholesale price is for a generic epi-pen. My point is merely that the price is trending back down now that there's competition. And again, with insurance it's effectively free for most people - either through private insurance or medicaid.

by vtail 4y ago

marricks 4y ago

Couple points: - MRNA COVID vaccine patents weren’t open sourced or available for the third world but Cuba’s vaccine solutions are - simple things like dental care aren’t offered in the US I think you should replace “available for the masses” with available “to the middle classes” which may seem the same to the average HN reader but not the average inhabitant of our planet

Firmwarrior 4y ago
Good news: We cured cancer Bad news: Some people are still poor
- smallnix 4y ago
  Good news: We will cure some people with cancer Bad news: We will not cure some people with cancer
  - praveen9920 4y ago
    Good news: We will cure some rich people with cancer Bad news: We will kill some rich people with cancer
- marricks 4y ago
  I was directly calling out the bold and wrong claim that “it will be available for the masses” because that is entirely wrong. If I get cancer 10 years from now I could be in luck! But it doesn’t mean I should immediately assume everyone else is.
- Tozen 4y ago
  Good news: We found new alternative methods to treat cancer Bad news: You need to be very rich and very lucky
brigandish 4y ago
> I think you should replace “available for the masses” with available “to the middle classes” which may seem the same to the average HN reader but not the average inhabitant of our planet The statistics simply don't back you up, as not only do the middle classes make up the vast majority of people on the planet now, but those coming from poverty into the middle class is increasing. The much missed Hans Rosling goes through it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JiYcV_mg6A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JiYcV_mg6A
nine_k 4y ago
MRNA vaccines are not banned to sell in poorer countries. They are currently just too expensive for them, I suppose. Once Moderna recoups the cost of R&D and pockets some profits, it will face the need to keep selling. With the pandemic basically over, they'll need to sell to wider markets, because they have the production capacity. They'll lower the price and try to use the economies of scale by selling large amounts. The fact that any technological advances first become available to those who can pay a high initial price (not only in money) is pretty inevitable. If something is a runaway success, the price goes down with volume, and ideally with pressure from competition. If you want to make something vitally important available at a low price, you have to find enough money to let the producers make some profit, or at least to recover the cost of development. If you don't, nobody will consider working on it, even if they wanted, because getting an investment would become impossible, and you can't do biotech on pocket money. (You could of course force them work at gunpoint, but not being forced to work at gunpoint is usually even more vitally important for the health of a society.)
- chasil 4y ago
  Moderna was in the news this morning because heart problems are much higher with their vaccine. I think the R&D isn't quite done yet. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/04/though-rare-moderna-covid-vaccine-recipients-have-higher-risk-of-heart-inflammation-than-pfizer.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/04/though-rare-moderna-covid-va...
  - pmoriarty 4y ago
    This should stop absolutely nobody from vaccinating. From the article: "People face a much higher risk of developing myocarditis from Covid infection than the vaccines, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. The risk of myocarditis from Covid is 100 times higher than developing the condition after Covid vaccination, according to a recent paper in Nature Reviews Cardiology."
    - chasil 4y ago
      ...and for any other use, the safety profile is unacceptable. The R&D is far from done.

cmeacham98 4y ago

> Every sufficiently advanced technology starts very expensive. Then capitalism and progress do their job, and it becomes available for masses. http://media2.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2016_33/1676741/epipen_price_hike_chart_ea751a0276b621824fddbe7a26965984.nbcnews-ux-2880-1000.png http://media2.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2016_33/1676741/epipen...

tjohns 4y ago
There are generic epi-pens available now. With GoodRx (no insurance), retail price is now about $100 - and with insurance, it's sometimes closer to $0.
- cmeacham98 4y ago
  While not as bad as $400, $100 would still be a significant price _increase_ compared to 2008 (even when accounting for inflation).
  - tjohns 4y ago
    Keep in mind $100 is the retail price, not the wholesale price (which is what's plotted on the above graph). I do not know what the current wholesale price is for a generic epi-pen. My point is merely that the price is trending back down now that there's competition. And again, with insurance it's effectively free for most people - either through private insurance or medicaid.