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> most people would succeed if put into that position (from birth, which is why this is near-impossible to prove). It's actually very easy to disprove. There

> most people would succeed if put into that position (from birth, which is why this is near-impossible to prove). It's actually very easy to disprove. There are 22 million millionaires in the US. There are 720 billionaires. That gives you a 0.003% chance of going from millionaire tier to billionaire.

joshstrange 4y ago
I don't believe that actually is what I was talking about or that you can use those numbers in the way you are. Your success in life is made up of a lot of different and hard to quantify or even qualify things. I'm talking about being able to go back in time knowing what X person has accomplished and replacing them with Y number of people doing different "runs through life". I'm postulating that the majority of them would end up in very similar positions at the end. Also it's impossible since even if we had the ability to do this (outside a simulation... maybe) the ethics of it are all wrong. Heck if you could actually simulate it there would still be ethical ramifications. If you can simulate full human consciousness how can you ever, ethically, turn off the machine or subject people to even simulated pain/poverty/sickness/etc? I digress. Those numbers don't indicate your chance of going from millionaire to billionaire. How many of those millionaires became millionaires later in life instead of being born one? How many of those billionaires started as millionaires? You'd need instead a study of hundreds of billionaires that started as millionaires then compare them the the number of "peer millionaires" that were born around the same time. Even so it's the "experiment" I'm proposing. Maybe I should have left millionaires out of it completely because even though we throw around things like "millionaires/billionaire" they are very different. You can be a millionaire from your 401K, your 401K will never make you a billionaire (unless inflation really gets out of hand). For myself it's very easy to look at all the advantages I've had in life and see how they led to the "success" I have today. I have/have had friends/coworkers who I perceive as being just as hard working, just as smart, etc as me who aren't doing as well due to not having the same advantages, I see the opposite as well.
- triceratops 4y ago
  > You can be a millionaire from your 401K, your 401K will never make you a billionaire Fun fact: Peter Thiel's IRA made him a billionaire.

joshstrange 4y ago

I don't believe that actually is what I was talking about or that you can use those numbers in the way you are. Your success in life is made up of a lot of different and hard to quantify or even qualify things. I'm talking about being able to go back in time knowing what X person has accomplished and replacing them with Y number of people doing different "runs through life". I'm postulating that the majority of them would end up in very similar positions at the end. Also it's impossible since even if we had the ability to do this (outside a simulation... maybe) the ethics of it are all wrong. Heck if you could actually simulate it there would still be ethical ramifications. If you can simulate full human consciousness how can you ever, ethically, turn off the machine or subject people to even simulated pain/poverty/sickness/etc? I digress. Those numbers don't indicate your chance of going from millionaire to billionaire. How many of those millionaires became millionaires later in life instead of being born one? How many of those billionaires started as millionaires? You'd need instead a study of hundreds of billionaires that started as millionaires then compare them the the number of "peer millionaires" that were born around the same time. Even so it's the "experiment" I'm proposing. Maybe I should have left millionaires out of it completely because even though we throw around things like "millionaires/billionaire" they are very different. You can be a millionaire from your 401K, your 401K will never make you a billionaire (unless inflation really gets out of hand). For myself it's very easy to look at all the advantages I've had in life and see how they led to the "success" I have today. I have/have had friends/coworkers who I perceive as being just as hard working, just as smart, etc as me who aren't doing as well due to not having the same advantages, I see the opposite as well.

triceratops 4y ago
> You can be a millionaire from your 401K, your 401K will never make you a billionaire Fun fact: Peter Thiel's IRA made him a billionaire.