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There will be plenty of devs desperate for work as large companies cuts a significant portion of the work. Bottomline, the last time tech truly saw a recession

There will be plenty of devs desperate for work as large companies cuts a significant portion of the work. Bottomline, the last time tech truly saw a recession and slow-down was in 2001. So, the entire dev cohort has never seen economic conditions that they are about to face. Even high performers at Meta, Coinbase, Netflix will have to navigate this. There are two choices in front of them a) work at Twitter and other startups which requires 60+ hours of work. High workload / High Reward or b) Join services firm like IBM, TCS and have work-life balance but do menial tasks with steady but medium pay. Elon Musk will have no trouble hiring them. Most devs are completely out of touch about the economic reality. Now they have to work hard like the rest of other industries.

mikkergp 4y ago
> Elon Musk will have no trouble hiring them. He just held an all hands where he said he doesn't know how long a run rate Twitter has, Twitter may lose billions next year, and bankruptcy isn't out of the question, so it sounds like it's possible he may have trouble hiring anyone.
- deltree7 4y ago
  Yes, just like Tesla, SpaceX, probably NeuraLink. That's how he motivates people
  - mikkergp 4y ago
    By sending all of his companies into bankruptcy? He motivated 5 top execs to leave!
    - deltree7 4y ago
      Good Riddance
  - agrajag 4y ago
    You can’t realistically argue that twitter will have as easy a time hiring as SpaceX and Tesla. They might have the same shitty working conditions, but without the risk of the company going under in a year or two. Plus everyone already there knew what they were signing up for when they joined, but at twitter you should expect a 50-75%+ employee churn over the next year. You don’t join twitter today unless you treat it like a short term contracting job.
    - deltree7 4y ago
      There is always a fresh supply of extremely bright engineers from Stanford/MIT/Berkeley and thousands of universities who will have trouble finding jobs in a hiring freeze environment and wouldn't mind working for a startup like Twitter (driven by mission and large upside with equity if successful). Not everyone in this world is a coaster
      - mikkergp 4y ago
        See, I’ve been wondering this, so you think that he’s driving all the advertisers and employees away to start fresh, with advertisers and employees who are loyal? Do you think the subscription service will be enough to make up the lost revenue or, how do you think he’ll earn the billion in interest payments he needs, sell Tesla stock?
  - 7952 4y ago
    Surely the mission of those companies act as a motivation. Going to mars etc. Twitter is just a utility. It isn't exciting in that way .
Cyph0n 4y ago
Remove Twitter from a) and add a third option: c) work at any company that isn’t clearly being run into the ground.
- deltree7 4y ago
  Can you give me an example of this unicorn company which isn't facing cash-crunch and burn rate?
  - Cyph0n 4y ago
    I can give you many examples of unicorns that weren’t firing people one week after a takeover by a billionaire who doesn’t understand how account verification works.
    - deltree7 4y ago
      Musk was firing useless departments (DEI, Human Rights, Ethics, Communications) -- Mostly rent-seeking roles that has no place in startups. Musk also fired Engineers who weren't productive in the past two months. Musk has enough software expertise to see through people who bullshit and people who know their shit. That's why the best Car Designer, the best rocket engineer, the best AI expert were all working for Tesla/SpaceX. Is Musk clueless about Social Media? absolutely. Do you think he isn't spending every waking second to figure out the nuances and deliver something amazing in 2-3 years? This is where HN/Reddit/Blind/Media are clueless about Musk. They look at current state of Musk and mock him (they mocked him for his rocket dream, his electric car dream, they mocked his tents) True to form and cluelessness, they are currently mocking his lack of expertise in creator economy and other social aspects of social media. Let's try 2 years from now. Musk is a fast learner and has always pivoted when data shows him where he is wrong. He will make plenty of mistakes and clueless media will be there to highlight that because there is an audience of clueless people who are thirsty for Elon Musk thrashing articles to feel good about themselves. At the end of the day, Twitter will be successful, Elon will be a Trillionaire (from all his ventures) and there will be salty HN/Redditers who will still be mocking him in 2030 because he probably would be doing some stupid thing in some new industry
tablespoon 4y ago
> a) work at Twitter and other startups which requires 60+ hours of work. High workload / High Reward Twitter is not a startup, and my understanding is startups are only "high reward" if your bet pays off (e.g. you got in early enough AND the startup was successful enough). > Most devs are completely out of touch about the economic reality. Now they have to work hard like the rest of other industries. Your a/b binary choice is out of touch in its own way.
- deltree7 4y ago
  This is exactly what I mean by 99% HN dev cohort completely out of touch with reality. Twitter is absolutely a startup. They are trying to a) find product market fit with a new vision b) Have negative cash-flow, so everyone has to workhard to reduce burn rate. c) Will have new fresh equity issued them with high upside rewards. d) Will have a liquidity event in a couple of years (IPO) For all practical purpose, Twitter is a startup. Musk will issue new equity
  - tablespoon 4y ago
    > Twitter is absolutely a startup. They are trying to a) find product market fit with a new vision b) Have negative cash-flow, so everyone has to workhard to reduce burn rate. c) Will have new fresh equity issued them with high upside rewards. d) Will have a liquidity event in a couple of years (IPO) That sounds like a very idiosyncratic definition of a "startup" that would match all kinds of poorly performing companies no one would label a "startup." I think being new, small, and chasing orders-of-magnitude upside from that small start are pretty key to the conventional definition, neither of which apply to Twitter anymore.
lovich 4y ago
The labor market is still incredibly tight for engineers. Even these current layoffs have targeted non tech departments for the majority of their cuts, if they included engineering at all. Companies still want to build and there’s not enough hands. From everyone I’m in contact with it’s a terrible time to be in sales, marketing, or hr, and the engineers are mostly bitching about no raises this year
- deltree7 4y ago
  This is an out of touch comment, not understanding the supply / demand context. It's not only about layoffs, but not enough absorbing capacity for freshly printed Tech graduates the universities are churning out at the rate expecting previous level of hiring. Most HN guys demanding work-life balance have seen nothing yet. This is a great time for Startups and Startup-like firms like Twitter to hire and require 60+ hours workload. There will be fresh graduates from Stanford, MIT, Berkeley who have no choice but to put pressure on existing coasters on various companies
  - lovich 4y ago
    You can keep claiming it’s out of touch but that doesn’t make it real. There is still a heavy demand for software engineers. It’s not as great as it was a year ago but it’s not so dire companies can’t now start demanding no work life balance.
ryanbrunner 4y ago
There's a third option of joining a small, lean, bootstrapped company with good work-life balance, which tend to thrive when the market isn't as frothy.
AJ007 4y ago
Down votes make me think a lot of HNers are in for a brutal shock.
baxtr 4y ago
Here’s the thing: I never said he had issues hiring anyone. I simply said you might argue Twitter is not entirely his even though he owns it. That’s where all your startup analogies (which I find interesting!) break: Twitter is a “turn around” case. Musk had never to deal with such. He always build up companies from the ground. That’s very very different to acquiring a large company with an existing culture. Now I’m not saying it cannot work. Maybe it does. But you can’t argue he’s done it before.
jtuple 4y ago
The big difference between 2001 and now is that high compensation at top jobs enables greater savings. Most people in 2001 had to find work quickly to keep surviving. Mid-career high performers from Meta, Twitter, Netflix, etc have millions in savings and assets. Those people could sit out a few years if they wanted, or even just retire early if they were happy with the $60-100k/year income from interest/capital gains at a consevative withdrawl rate. Most of these people still choose to work today because they have well paying jobs which they enjoy. High performers gonna perform, etc. But, if the only option was toxic jobs combined with low pay many would simply opt-out. Many in this dev cohort have been extremely lucky and have the privilege to take a stand. 2022 isn't really a great time to be an asshole captialist banking on qualified employees having no other options. Fresh graduates and early career individuals are a possibility. But, you still need experienced devs to mentor them and maintain the large complex systems/infrastructure that fresh hires can't yet handle without more experience. Attracting and retaining this senior talent is the hard part.
- deltree7 4y ago
  Yes, The Tech Rich people aren't the right people to work for Twitter / Elon Musk anyway. Now, it's mostly self-selecting people of believing in the mission/elon and people looking for hungry or success. Every industry works like this. It's only out-of-touch techies who enjoyed unprecedented rewards/hard-work ratio that need to adjust their lifestyle and expectations

mikkergp 4y ago

> Elon Musk will have no trouble hiring them. He just held an all hands where he said he doesn't know how long a run rate Twitter has, Twitter may lose billions next year, and bankruptcy isn't out of the question, so it sounds like it's possible he may have trouble hiring anyone.

deltree7 4y ago
Yes, just like Tesla, SpaceX, probably NeuraLink. That's how he motivates people
- mikkergp 4y ago
  By sending all of his companies into bankruptcy? He motivated 5 top execs to leave!
  - deltree7 4y ago
    Good Riddance
- agrajag 4y ago
  You can’t realistically argue that twitter will have as easy a time hiring as SpaceX and Tesla. They might have the same shitty working conditions, but without the risk of the company going under in a year or two. Plus everyone already there knew what they were signing up for when they joined, but at twitter you should expect a 50-75%+ employee churn over the next year. You don’t join twitter today unless you treat it like a short term contracting job.
  - deltree7 4y ago
    There is always a fresh supply of extremely bright engineers from Stanford/MIT/Berkeley and thousands of universities who will have trouble finding jobs in a hiring freeze environment and wouldn't mind working for a startup like Twitter (driven by mission and large upside with equity if successful). Not everyone in this world is a coaster
    - mikkergp 4y ago
      See, I’ve been wondering this, so you think that he’s driving all the advertisers and employees away to start fresh, with advertisers and employees who are loyal? Do you think the subscription service will be enough to make up the lost revenue or, how do you think he’ll earn the billion in interest payments he needs, sell Tesla stock?
- 7952 4y ago
  Surely the mission of those companies act as a motivation. Going to mars etc. Twitter is just a utility. It isn't exciting in that way .

Cyph0n 4y ago

Remove Twitter from a) and add a third option: c) work at any company that isn’t clearly being run into the ground.

deltree7 4y ago
Can you give me an example of this unicorn company which isn't facing cash-crunch and burn rate?
- Cyph0n 4y ago
  I can give you many examples of unicorns that weren’t firing people one week after a takeover by a billionaire who doesn’t understand how account verification works.
  - deltree7 4y ago
    Musk was firing useless departments (DEI, Human Rights, Ethics, Communications) -- Mostly rent-seeking roles that has no place in startups. Musk also fired Engineers who weren't productive in the past two months. Musk has enough software expertise to see through people who bullshit and people who know their shit. That's why the best Car Designer, the best rocket engineer, the best AI expert were all working for Tesla/SpaceX. Is Musk clueless about Social Media? absolutely. Do you think he isn't spending every waking second to figure out the nuances and deliver something amazing in 2-3 years? This is where HN/Reddit/Blind/Media are clueless about Musk. They look at current state of Musk and mock him (they mocked him for his rocket dream, his electric car dream, they mocked his tents) True to form and cluelessness, they are currently mocking his lack of expertise in creator economy and other social aspects of social media. Let's try 2 years from now. Musk is a fast learner and has always pivoted when data shows him where he is wrong. He will make plenty of mistakes and clueless media will be there to highlight that because there is an audience of clueless people who are thirsty for Elon Musk thrashing articles to feel good about themselves. At the end of the day, Twitter will be successful, Elon will be a Trillionaire (from all his ventures) and there will be salty HN/Redditers who will still be mocking him in 2030 because he probably would be doing some stupid thing in some new industry

tablespoon 4y ago

> a) work at Twitter and other startups which requires 60+ hours of work. High workload / High Reward Twitter is not a startup, and my understanding is startups are only "high reward" if your bet pays off (e.g. you got in early enough AND the startup was successful enough). > Most devs are completely out of touch about the economic reality. Now they have to work hard like the rest of other industries. Your a/b binary choice is out of touch in its own way.

deltree7 4y ago
This is exactly what I mean by 99% HN dev cohort completely out of touch with reality. Twitter is absolutely a startup. They are trying to a) find product market fit with a new vision b) Have negative cash-flow, so everyone has to workhard to reduce burn rate. c) Will have new fresh equity issued them with high upside rewards. d) Will have a liquidity event in a couple of years (IPO) For all practical purpose, Twitter is a startup. Musk will issue new equity
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > Twitter is absolutely a startup. They are trying to a) find product market fit with a new vision b) Have negative cash-flow, so everyone has to workhard to reduce burn rate. c) Will have new fresh equity issued them with high upside rewards. d) Will have a liquidity event in a couple of years (IPO) That sounds like a very idiosyncratic definition of a "startup" that would match all kinds of poorly performing companies no one would label a "startup." I think being new, small, and chasing orders-of-magnitude upside from that small start are pretty key to the conventional definition, neither of which apply to Twitter anymore.

lovich 4y ago

The labor market is still incredibly tight for engineers. Even these current layoffs have targeted non tech departments for the majority of their cuts, if they included engineering at all. Companies still want to build and there’s not enough hands. From everyone I’m in contact with it’s a terrible time to be in sales, marketing, or hr, and the engineers are mostly bitching about no raises this year

deltree7 4y ago
This is an out of touch comment, not understanding the supply / demand context. It's not only about layoffs, but not enough absorbing capacity for freshly printed Tech graduates the universities are churning out at the rate expecting previous level of hiring. Most HN guys demanding work-life balance have seen nothing yet. This is a great time for Startups and Startup-like firms like Twitter to hire and require 60+ hours workload. There will be fresh graduates from Stanford, MIT, Berkeley who have no choice but to put pressure on existing coasters on various companies
- lovich 4y ago
  You can keep claiming it’s out of touch but that doesn’t make it real. There is still a heavy demand for software engineers. It’s not as great as it was a year ago but it’s not so dire companies can’t now start demanding no work life balance.

ryanbrunner 4y ago

There's a third option of joining a small, lean, bootstrapped company with good work-life balance, which tend to thrive when the market isn't as frothy.

AJ007 4y ago

Down votes make me think a lot of HNers are in for a brutal shock.

baxtr 4y ago

Here’s the thing: I never said he had issues hiring anyone. I simply said you might argue Twitter is not entirely his even though he owns it. That’s where all your startup analogies (which I find interesting!) break: Twitter is a “turn around” case. Musk had never to deal with such. He always build up companies from the ground. That’s very very different to acquiring a large company with an existing culture. Now I’m not saying it cannot work. Maybe it does. But you can’t argue he’s done it before.

jtuple 4y ago

The big difference between 2001 and now is that high compensation at top jobs enables greater savings. Most people in 2001 had to find work quickly to keep surviving. Mid-career high performers from Meta, Twitter, Netflix, etc have millions in savings and assets. Those people could sit out a few years if they wanted, or even just retire early if they were happy with the $60-100k/year income from interest/capital gains at a consevative withdrawl rate. Most of these people still choose to work today because they have well paying jobs which they enjoy. High performers gonna perform, etc. But, if the only option was toxic jobs combined with low pay many would simply opt-out. Many in this dev cohort have been extremely lucky and have the privilege to take a stand. 2022 isn't really a great time to be an asshole captialist banking on qualified employees having no other options. Fresh graduates and early career individuals are a possibility. But, you still need experienced devs to mentor them and maintain the large complex systems/infrastructure that fresh hires can't yet handle without more experience. Attracting and retaining this senior talent is the hard part.

deltree7 4y ago
Yes, The Tech Rich people aren't the right people to work for Twitter / Elon Musk anyway. Now, it's mostly self-selecting people of believing in the mission/elon and people looking for hungry or success. Every industry works like this. It's only out-of-touch techies who enjoyed unprecedented rewards/hard-work ratio that need to adjust their lifestyle and expectations