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> It turned out that the model developed from that question was a worse predictor, but that isn't wrong any more than carrying out an experiment that didn't mat

> It turned out that the model developed from that question was a worse predictor, but that isn't wrong any more than carrying out an experiment that didn't match the expected results is wrong. I don't know if that's entirely true. From the article: > Oddly enough, NPR just reported these numbers with a straight face, without saying anything about how off they seemed to be. Which is to say, they performed an experiment. That experiment failed—which, as you say, is a totally acceptable outcome of an experiment. But when reporting their results, they don't seem to have indicated that (a) what they were reporting on was an experiment, or that (b) the results didn't seem promising, or in line with expectations. Instead, the article implied that they reported the results as if they were meaningful predictions.

shagie 4y ago
Give the transcript a read - https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1134434712 https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1134434712 --- FOUNTAIN: ... So, Barbara, we have a question for you. CARVALHO: Uh-oh. FOUNTAIN: Would you be willing to let us test one of these methods in one of your polls? CARVALHO: Oh, sure. FOUNTAIN: Really? CARVALHO: Well, if they're - I mean, if they're appropriate, objective, you know, questions, that would be great. GUO: So here's the exciting news. We worked with Barbara to draft two questions - one, where we ask people to predict the election and another asking them who the folks in their social circles are voting for. FOUNTAIN: She said she would slip them into a poll Marist is doing before the midterms, run some analyses and let us know how useful they might be for the future of polling. ... CARVALHO: When we look at who people think that their social contacts are going to vote for, we actually found among registered voters a plus-10 Republican... GUO: That's a big difference. CARVALHO: ...And a plus-14 among those who say that they're definitely going to vote. When we look at who they think is most likely to win the election in their district, we see among registered voters a plus-12 Republican. FOUNTAIN: Wow. CARVALHO: ...And a definite vote of a plus-16. FOUNTAIN: The wisdom-of-the-crowds type questions are heavily favoring the Republicans, much more than the standard question, though Barbara is careful to mention that all of this is just preliminary, and the real test is when she puts all this data together and does some analysis. And besides, it's a little hard to figure out which questions are working better on a national poll. But... GUO: If the election goes more toward the Republicans, is that a little bit more evidence for maybe the usefulness of these questions? CARVALHO: Absolutely. And so what we will take a look at - and mind you, we're not ending the experiment here.

shagie 4y ago

Give the transcript a read - https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1134434712 https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1134434712 --- FOUNTAIN: ... So, Barbara, we have a question for you. CARVALHO: Uh-oh. FOUNTAIN: Would you be willing to let us test one of these methods in one of your polls? CARVALHO: Oh, sure. FOUNTAIN: Really? CARVALHO: Well, if they're - I mean, if they're appropriate, objective, you know, questions, that would be great. GUO: So here's the exciting news. We worked with Barbara to draft two questions - one, where we ask people to predict the election and another asking them who the folks in their social circles are voting for. FOUNTAIN: She said she would slip them into a poll Marist is doing before the midterms, run some analyses and let us know how useful they might be for the future of polling. ... CARVALHO: When we look at who people think that their social contacts are going to vote for, we actually found among registered voters a plus-10 Republican... GUO: That's a big difference. CARVALHO: ...And a plus-14 among those who say that they're definitely going to vote. When we look at who they think is most likely to win the election in their district, we see among registered voters a plus-12 Republican. FOUNTAIN: Wow. CARVALHO: ...And a definite vote of a plus-16. FOUNTAIN: The wisdom-of-the-crowds type questions are heavily favoring the Republicans, much more than the standard question, though Barbara is careful to mention that all of this is just preliminary, and the real test is when she puts all this data together and does some analysis. And besides, it's a little hard to figure out which questions are working better on a national poll. But... GUO: If the election goes more toward the Republicans, is that a little bit more evidence for maybe the usefulness of these questions? CARVALHO: Absolutely. And so what we will take a look at - and mind you, we're not ending the experiment here.