“nobody — nobody — was predicting that the Republicans would win by 12 or 16 percentage points.” An excess 14% thinking republicans will win doesn’t predict a

“nobody — nobody — was predicting that the Republicans would win by 12 or 16 percentage points.” An excess 14% thinking republicans will win doesn’t predict a 14% margin, it predicts 14% excess probability that republicans win, by some amount. Even that I’d be skeptical over though. I think this question is basically measuring which media narrative has become predominant & by how much.