4 ms·

I think that is the point: Polling/Outlets had them getting a massive lead, keep in mind too that this was the worst performance for midterms for the party that

I think that is the point: Polling/Outlets had them getting a massive lead, keep in mind too that this was the worst performance for midterms for the party that does not hold the presidency in a very long time. Usually the party that has the presidency takes a larger share of the house in midterms. The fact that the polling was calling for a "Red Wave" and that the "Red Wave" severely underperformed is the thing that is being investigated now.

PaulHoule 4y ago
538 has been all through this. 538 expected the Senate to be close and for Republicans to win the house, which seems to be the outcome. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-best-tool-for-predicting-midterm-elections-doesnt-show-a-republican-wave-but-history-is-on-the-gops-side/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-best-tool-for-predi... It's normal for the president's party to lose some ground in the midterms. Biden's approval numbers were poor which was not good for the dems... but, that's countered by Trumpism being unpopular. Republicans who were sane did pretty well, lunatics like Oz didn't. Trumpism was so toxic that it was a winning strategy for Democrats to promote the worst Republicans in their primaries.
- 0x500x79 4y ago
  It was the outcome... on a much, much smaller margin that usually happens around this time in the cycle.