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"There are low risk strategies like the wheel that basically guarantee you income for doing nothing but being patient." I haven't found any. And every time an
by hristov 4y ago
"There are low risk strategies like the wheel that basically guarantee you income for doing nothing but being patient."
I haven't found any. And every time an option trader tells me about their "low risk" strategy I see a disaster waiting to happen. The "low risk strategies" of option trading are usually strategies where you make a bet that will give you a low income if things go about the way they have been going about for the past couple of years, and massive disastrous losses if a very unlikely seeming market event happens.
The problem is that the market loves serving up unlikely and impossible seeming events. So really what you think is a low risk income strategy is actually you providing insurance to someone against an unlikely but an entirely possible event without you pricing in the risk of the event in your insurance fees. Because you have managed to convince yourself the event will not happen.
For example, a couple of years ago people were so used to low interest rates that they kind of started believing that interest rates would be low forever. And they came up with all kinds of options and derivative strategies which seemed to generate free money but in reality were bets that interest rates would stay low, or would not breach a certain impossibly high seeming level. Well interest rates went up and in some places (for example, the UK) they hit levels many people thought impossible. And boy were there blow - ups.
More specifically, to your point, "the wheel" strategy is basically a bet against volatility. It will work if the volatility of the primary market is lower than the implied volatility priced by the options market. If not, it will not work and you will lose money. Oh, and if there is one high volatility event, bad enough to wipe you out ... well then you are wiped out. Even if the average volatility was in your favor. So, no, the wheel is not a safe strategy.
If you think you can predict volatility go ahead. But some of the highest paid traders try to do that and get it wrong, so, good luck. But do not fool yourself that you are being safe.
- logicalmonster 4y agoAnytime you're holding stock, you obviously take a theoretical risk. How risky something is is a judgement call that each individual needs to make for themselves. That said, using something like a wheel strategy on stock XYZ is inherently less risky than merely buying the stock outright because the premiums can at least be collected until your target price is hit.
- hristov 4y agoWrong, it is inherently more risky. You are fooling yourself.
- logicalmonster 4y agoPlease explain how so. If you buy the stock outright: you can lose everything if the company goes out of business. If you use a simple wheel, you can still lose everything, but the blow is blunted by any premiums you collect.
- hristov 4y agoIf you use a wheel, you will lose more on average. You will be guaranteed to sell below market value and to buy above market value. Yes, with the wheel you may end up with a little bit of premiums if your stock goes to zero, but in most cases you end up worse with the wheel than owning a stock. That is because, when you own a stock you buy it at market and when you decide to sell, you sell it at market. With the wheel you end up buying and selling at prices worse than market. And if volatility is high -- significantly worse.
- logicalmonster 4y ago> If you use a wheel, you will lose more on average. You will be guaranteed to sell below market value and to buy above market value. I'm not understanding your comment. Who is forcing you to sell below market value and buy above market value?
- hristov 4y agoThe option contracts you wrote are forcing you.
- mikeyouse 4y agoMany option bets have uncapped losses.. If you buy a share of Coca Cola for $60, you could lose $60 if the company goes bankrupt. If you sell a naked call to earn the premium, you can in theory, lose an infinite amount of money.