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Funny how markets and analysts lose their minds when the numbers don't match exactly the predicted when there are no error bars associated to either the estimat
by passwordoops 4y ago
Funny how markets and analysts lose their minds when the numbers don't match exactly the predicted when there are no error bars associated to either the estimate or the value.
Coming under or over is a lot different when we're talking +/- 0.05 vs. 0.5...
And yes, I tried checking. The Fed does put out their data, but nary a precision factor to be found
- whimsicalism 4y agoMy guess is that many of the actors in the market have their own error bounds.
- ChicagoBoy11 4y agoI'm always reminded of economists wonderful sense of humor whenever I start seeing decimal points on some of these forecasts!
- yCombLinks 4y agoIt wouldn't matter at all if the fed didn't put in a prediction. You can calculate what inflation level the market is predicting by looking at inflation swaps. When the official rates come out the market reacts to divergence from that prediction.
- techlover14159 4y agoIs the pricing data for inflation swaps publicly available?