4 ms·

Year-over-year inflation doesn't tell us anything about whether prices are going up or down right now.

• giantg2 4y ago
  No historical data is going to tell us the future. But it can give us an idea of the trend, which is useful since in a large system like the economy the trend tends to change relatively slowly as compared to individual compentents.
  • lottin 4y ago
    A statistic is only useful if you know how to interpret it. Case in point: you can have double digit year-over-year inflation, while simultaneously falling prices for the last 11 months.
    • giantg2 4y ago
      This doesn't make sense. Falling prices for what? CPI is a measure of cost of a basket of goods. You can't have net aggregate falling prices and a rising CPI unless you are measuring different prices.
      • danielmarkbruce 4y ago
        CPI up 20% month on month in month 1. CPI down 1% month on month for the remaining 11 months. That would result in what they are saying.
        • giantg2 4y ago
          Ah, so not mismatched prices/goods, but mismatched temporally.
          • dcow 4y ago
            Which is still stupid to even be arguing about. It’s like people are trying to find a problem with data that is objectively reported by arguing that if you change the x axis you get an entirely different conclusion. No shit… that’s how data works.
            • danielmarkbruce 4y ago
              No one is suggesting there is a problem with the data. They are discussing how best to interpret it. And nobody is suggesting changing the x-axis. It's still time. The distinction people are making is which points does one use to calculate the slope? The most recent two? The most recent one and the one from a year ago? What are the implications of each?
              • dcow 4y ago
                From what I can gather you’re trying to suggest that prices are going down because “recently” they have been (which isn't even true MoM they’ve still increased). That’s a pretty sloppy and inaccurate statement without a very precise definition of recently, which has been omitted. And YoY it’s not true. I didn't see any thread of discussion that you’re alluding to where people were trying to interpret what the data actually means. There was simply a word of caution about making sure not to let the headline confuse you. Then some incorrect and sloppy comments appeared like “actually this is incorrect data because the price is trending down MoM don’t be fooled”. That’s an entirely different thing. Hence why you see all the people trying to explain how it’s silly. I didn't introduce confusion by changing the slope calculation… I’m just responding to it trying to clean up the mess it’s made. I’m seriously confused: what is your actual point?
                • danielmarkbruce 4y ago
                  No, definitely not, and they haven't, not yoy or mom. Terrible gathering. The comment was in response to a comment that was speaking to nuance and basically said there's even more nuance. It's right there to see.