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For those who were wondering if we would officially be in a recession after November 8 elections, the answer is still "no".

InTheArena 4y ago
It will take a quarter, but given the massive layoffs occurring now, the projections of early next year are looking spot on. Inflation is a different problem.
- SantalBlush 4y ago
  The argument being repeated here on HN wasn't that recession might happen in the future (which would be a true statement); the argument was that we've been in a recession since summer, but due to government propaganda and a media conspiracy, it was swept under the rug (which was false).
  - juve1996 4y ago
    Yea just like "COVID" would go away when Biden became president. You just have to roll your eyes at these people. They're too far gone now.
- mi_lk 4y ago
  > the projections of early next year where do you see that projection?
  - InTheArena 4y ago
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/goldman-ceo-says-reasonable-chance-us-recession-2023-2022-10-18/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/goldman-ceo-says-reasonab... https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/09/15/risk-of-global-recession-in-2023-rises-amid-simultaneous-rate-hikes https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/09/15/r... https://abc11.com/recession-prediction-2023-imf-world-economic-outlook/12316495/ https://abc11.com/recession-prediction-2023-imf-world-econom... https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/bank-of-england-uk-faces-longest-ever-recession.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/bank-of-england-uk-faces-lon...
iav 4y ago
GDP grew +2% in Q3, after declining in Q1 and Q2. Gross Domestic Income (similar to GDP but measured differently) grew consistently the entire year. And unemployment rate has declined consistently every single month and stands at 3.57%. I think it would be hard to thread a needle to call any part of YTD 2022 as a recession with this kind of fact pattern. Only if unemployment rate starts to increase in a dramatic way can we really go back and say we were in a recession this year.
- eloff 4y ago
  I agree with that, but mind you there are two kinds of job numbers. The household survey numbers and the official ones which mysteriously diverge from the survey before elections, but otherwise track nicely. There's some two million jobs that only exist on paper to benefit the incumbent government. This anomaly appears regardless of which party is in power.

InTheArena 4y ago

It will take a quarter, but given the massive layoffs occurring now, the projections of early next year are looking spot on. Inflation is a different problem.

SantalBlush 4y ago
The argument being repeated here on HN wasn't that recession might happen in the future (which would be a true statement); the argument was that we've been in a recession since summer, but due to government propaganda and a media conspiracy, it was swept under the rug (which was false).
- juve1996 4y ago
  Yea just like "COVID" would go away when Biden became president. You just have to roll your eyes at these people. They're too far gone now.
mi_lk 4y ago
> the projections of early next year where do you see that projection?
- InTheArena 4y ago
  https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/goldman-ceo-says-reasonable-chance-us-recession-2023-2022-10-18/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/goldman-ceo-says-reasonab... https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/09/15/risk-of-global-recession-in-2023-rises-amid-simultaneous-rate-hikes https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/09/15/r... https://abc11.com/recession-prediction-2023-imf-world-economic-outlook/12316495/ https://abc11.com/recession-prediction-2023-imf-world-econom... https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/bank-of-england-uk-faces-longest-ever-recession.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/bank-of-england-uk-faces-lon...

iav 4y ago

GDP grew +2% in Q3, after declining in Q1 and Q2. Gross Domestic Income (similar to GDP but measured differently) grew consistently the entire year. And unemployment rate has declined consistently every single month and stands at 3.57%. I think it would be hard to thread a needle to call any part of YTD 2022 as a recession with this kind of fact pattern. Only if unemployment rate starts to increase in a dramatic way can we really go back and say we were in a recession this year.

eloff 4y ago
I agree with that, but mind you there are two kinds of job numbers. The household survey numbers and the official ones which mysteriously diverge from the survey before elections, but otherwise track nicely. There's some two million jobs that only exist on paper to benefit the incumbent government. This anomaly appears regardless of which party is in power.