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Only necessity commodities are a good asset to own in a recession. And in practice due to retail patterns volatility in bad times nothing is a "good" thing to o

Only necessity commodities are a good asset to own in a recession. And in practice due to retail patterns volatility in bad times nothing is a "good" thing to own. (If you know a vertically integrated food producer that produces their own water and fertilizer, do let me know though.) Also note we have a global currency war, where U.S. is forcing policy/pick your side to countries and also "exports" inflation. This is done in part by the rate of increase of interests rate -- a derivative other countries can not simply follow up. In big part in the way energy gets exported. So as DXY goes up everything else free-falls, and causes extra strain -- as the fixed costs to pay debt increase rapidly due to the rates too -- things break. And when things break, people sell everything they can to save the boat. So you are looking at a table full of fireworks randomly popping trying to guess what is going to stay there. I wouldn't say there is a good asset thus. Note this is simply unsustainable. My perspective.

neural_thing 4y ago
Counterpoint: Stanley Druckenmiller, who many, including myself, think is the most successful investor/trader alive (something like 30% a year average for 30 years with not a single down year) is on the record saying that during recessions he makes money by buying bonds.
- eftychis 4y ago
  Would you pick a random bond? The question is if there is a good type of asset. One anyone would just keep. To your words Druckenmiller "makes money by buying bonds." That involves a) picking them b) selling them and doing both right. I don't think the average person does 30%. If Druckenmiller can send us his tips on the ultimate bond that is inefficient, I am all ears. But I wouldn't know how to pick a mispriced bond myself. Edit: But yes, you can make money during a recession. If there is a lot of inflation that might not count as much. I don't think I implied you can't with my statement. But even where you place your money is a game then -- think Lehman Brothers taking hedge fund liquidity down with it.

neural_thing 4y ago

Counterpoint: Stanley Druckenmiller, who many, including myself, think is the most successful investor/trader alive (something like 30% a year average for 30 years with not a single down year) is on the record saying that during recessions he makes money by buying bonds.

eftychis 4y ago
Would you pick a random bond? The question is if there is a good type of asset. One anyone would just keep. To your words Druckenmiller "makes money by buying bonds." That involves a) picking them b) selling them and doing both right. I don't think the average person does 30%. If Druckenmiller can send us his tips on the ultimate bond that is inefficient, I am all ears. But I wouldn't know how to pick a mispriced bond myself. Edit: But yes, you can make money during a recession. If there is a lot of inflation that might not count as much. I don't think I implied you can't with my statement. But even where you place your money is a game then -- think Lehman Brothers taking hedge fund liquidity down with it.