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This time it's different. There's no giant pool of FOMOing suckers to drive the next wave.

by TylerE 4y ago

koolba 4y ago
They said that last time. And the time before. And the time before that. An actual difference is that current inflation levels make another round of stimulus checks highly unlikely. And the current nominal rates for risk free treasuries are high enough to keep large scale cash parked outside as well.
- cj 4y ago
  Another key difference is, IMO, crypto has reached peak saturation. During the previous run ups, we didn't have institutional investors buying billions of Bitcoin, we didn't have public companies (TSLA) buying a billion dollars of BTC for fun, we didn't have sports stadiums with the name "crypto.com", or ads on TV. BTC achieved mass adoption during 2020/2021/2022. It's available in 401k funds, derivatives on the stock market, etc. The only catalyst I can think of that could truly catapult BTC back to the heights of 2020/2021 is if we get to a point at some point in the future where BTC is actually useful for something other than asset speculation and people trying to get rich quick. This could take years.
  - paulpauper 4y ago
    It's sorta useful for illicit goods and as payment for decrypting people's computers which they hadn't consented to being encrypted.
    - propogandist 4y ago
      > useful for illicit goods a purchase traceable down to the KYC’d buyer dumb enough to put their purchase on a public, immutable ledger
- lamontcg 4y ago
  We're still not into an actual recession as well either, and BTC has never been tested by a properly bad recession (2020 doesn't really count due to how sharp the recovery was). It is this bad for crypto right now, and there's going to be no cheap cash coming to rescue it for quite some time. I think it is still possible that there might be a floor down at $4k or so where all the True Believer billionaires may still step in to buy it up and rescue it. If the billionaires themselves are net sellers though needing to raise cash because everything else is in flames (e.g. Elon+Twitter) then it may just fail.
  - coffeebeqn 4y ago
    The true believer billionaires hold only BTC so they won’t be billionaires at that point any longer
    - lamontcg 4y ago
      I'd consider Musk to be a true believer.
paulpauper 4y ago
there is a finite amount of capital , probably half a trillion if I had to guess. It cannot keep going up forever.
- TylerE 4y ago
  You’re way off. Crypto market cap has fallen more than that just today.
  - projektfu 4y ago
    You're both right. The market cap doesn't represent the amount of capital in crypto, e.g. liquidation value, investment capital, etc. The systems have always been relatively shallow in volume, with lots of trades being washes and speculation. In fact, wash trades are like the most commonly offered explanation of crypto's value. (Poor farmer in Afghanistan buys crypto to move money to his summer home in Venezuela and cashes out there.)
geerlingguy 4y ago
The pyramid found its base and can't expand into any more gullible markets.
- tartoran 4y ago
  Every couple of years they groom a new generation, a new hype cycle of pump and dump starts anew. Some get hooked, some homeless, some are dreaming to get their money back one day…

This time it's different. There's no giant pool of FOMOing suckers to drive the next wave.

by TylerE 4y ago

This time it's different. There's no giant pool of FOMOing suckers to drive the next wave.

They said that last time. And the time before. And the time before that. An actual difference is that current inflation levels make another round of stimulus checks highly unlikely. And the current nominal rates for risk free treasuries are high enough to keep large scale cash parked outside as well.

cj 4y ago
Another key difference is, IMO, crypto has reached peak saturation. During the previous run ups, we didn't have institutional investors buying billions of Bitcoin, we didn't have public companies (TSLA) buying a billion dollars of BTC for fun, we didn't have sports stadiums with the name "crypto.com", or ads on TV. BTC achieved mass adoption during 2020/2021/2022. It's available in 401k funds, derivatives on the stock market, etc. The only catalyst I can think of that could truly catapult BTC back to the heights of 2020/2021 is if we get to a point at some point in the future where BTC is actually useful for something other than asset speculation and people trying to get rich quick. This could take years.
- paulpauper 4y ago
  It's sorta useful for illicit goods and as payment for decrypting people's computers which they hadn't consented to being encrypted.
  - propogandist 4y ago
    > useful for illicit goods a purchase traceable down to the KYC’d buyer dumb enough to put their purchase on a public, immutable ledger
lamontcg 4y ago
We're still not into an actual recession as well either, and BTC has never been tested by a properly bad recession (2020 doesn't really count due to how sharp the recovery was). It is this bad for crypto right now, and there's going to be no cheap cash coming to rescue it for quite some time. I think it is still possible that there might be a floor down at $4k or so where all the True Believer billionaires may still step in to buy it up and rescue it. If the billionaires themselves are net sellers though needing to raise cash because everything else is in flames (e.g. Elon+Twitter) then it may just fail.
- coffeebeqn 4y ago
  The true believer billionaires hold only BTC so they won’t be billionaires at that point any longer
  - lamontcg 4y ago
    I'd consider Musk to be a true believer.

paulpauper 4y ago

there is a finite amount of capital , probably half a trillion if I had to guess. It cannot keep going up forever.

TylerE 4y ago
You’re way off. Crypto market cap has fallen more than that just today.
- projektfu 4y ago
  You're both right. The market cap doesn't represent the amount of capital in crypto, e.g. liquidation value, investment capital, etc. The systems have always been relatively shallow in volume, with lots of trades being washes and speculation. In fact, wash trades are like the most commonly offered explanation of crypto's value. (Poor farmer in Afghanistan buys crypto to move money to his summer home in Venezuela and cashes out there.)

geerlingguy 4y ago

The pyramid found its base and can't expand into any more gullible markets.

tartoran 4y ago
Every couple of years they groom a new generation, a new hype cycle of pump and dump starts anew. Some get hooked, some homeless, some are dreaming to get their money back one day…