5 ms·

Nothing but crashes. Bitcoin crashed to $2 in 2011, then it crashed to $250 in 2015, then it crashed to $3000 in 2019, and now it's crashed again to $15000. Sma

Nothing but crashes. Bitcoin crashed to $2 in 2011, then it crashed to $250 in 2015, then it crashed to $3000 in 2019, and now it's crashed again to $15000. Smart money knows to stay away and avoid the crashes.

binkHN 4y ago
So, future crash to $75000 in 2026?
DonHopkins 4y ago
Just because your cryptocurrency just lost 90% of its value today, doesn't mean it can't also lose 90% of its value tomorrow too.
woodruffw 4y ago
This is a joke, but it also misses the point: a volatile asset doesn’t have to crash to any particular baseline. It only has to crash below the stake price for its investors.
- throwup 4y ago
  You're talking about MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value). If it's below 1, it means the average investor is carrying a loss, and > 1 means carrying profit. Historically every halving it has spent some time below 1, and we are right on schedule. https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/ https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/
  - yunohn 4y ago
    Crypto (esp BTC) is a well defined zero or negative sum game. How do you propose /most/ people make a profit?
    - throwup 4y ago
      I didn't propose that. I just linked a relevant indicator. If you'd like me to predict the future, I predict that eventually BTC will fill a similar niche as gold - it will outperform cash under the mattress, but underperform index funds. You'll be able to spot the transition when the MVRV starts to center around 1.0 instead of its current ~1.5. But I couldn't begin to guess when that will happen. Maybe this crash is the catalyst, or maybe it will happen a decade from now. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    - ptudan 4y ago
      Please elaborate, how is it a negative sum game?
      - librish 4y ago
        For every person taking money out someone else has to put money in (which would be zero-sum) plus the miners taking their cut.
        doorman2 4y ago
        By that definition, which financial instruments aren't negative sum? E.g. stocks trade hands in a very similar way, and companies can always issue new shares.
        dragontamer 4y ago
        Company sells stock. The money builds a new factory. Or in the case of Google, a data center, or other such item that allows the company to make more money. Later, when the company is worth more, the shareholder sells the stock back and/or gets a dividend (aka, a slice of the profits). Everyone wins. -------- In contrast, the BTC you bought was likely made using stolen electricity. So we're already negative sum to the start.
        doorman2 4y ago
        The same thing could happen with crypto. A smart contract developer sells crypto to fund development of a smart contract. That smart contract can provide new utility and drive demand for the currency.
TylerE 4y ago
This time it's different. There's no giant pool of FOMOing suckers to drive the next wave.
- koolba 4y ago
  They said that last time. And the time before. And the time before that. An actual difference is that current inflation levels make another round of stimulus checks highly unlikely. And the current nominal rates for risk free treasuries are high enough to keep large scale cash parked outside as well.
  - cj 4y ago
    Another key difference is, IMO, crypto has reached peak saturation. During the previous run ups, we didn't have institutional investors buying billions of Bitcoin, we didn't have public companies (TSLA) buying a billion dollars of BTC for fun, we didn't have sports stadiums with the name "crypto.com", or ads on TV. BTC achieved mass adoption during 2020/2021/2022. It's available in 401k funds, derivatives on the stock market, etc. The only catalyst I can think of that could truly catapult BTC back to the heights of 2020/2021 is if we get to a point at some point in the future where BTC is actually useful for something other than asset speculation and people trying to get rich quick. This could take years.
    - paulpauper 4y ago
      It's sorta useful for illicit goods and as payment for decrypting people's computers which they hadn't consented to being encrypted.
      - propogandist 4y ago
        > useful for illicit goods a purchase traceable down to the KYC’d buyer dumb enough to put their purchase on a public, immutable ledger
  - lamontcg 4y ago
    We're still not into an actual recession as well either, and BTC has never been tested by a properly bad recession (2020 doesn't really count due to how sharp the recovery was). It is this bad for crypto right now, and there's going to be no cheap cash coming to rescue it for quite some time. I think it is still possible that there might be a floor down at $4k or so where all the True Believer billionaires may still step in to buy it up and rescue it. If the billionaires themselves are net sellers though needing to raise cash because everything else is in flames (e.g. Elon+Twitter) then it may just fail.
andrewstuart 4y ago
You didn't note the bitcoin high water mark was nearly exactly one year ago at $64,400, versus today at $15,696.

binkHN 4y ago

So, future crash to $75000 in 2026?

DonHopkins 4y ago

Just because your cryptocurrency just lost 90% of its value today, doesn't mean it can't also lose 90% of its value tomorrow too.

woodruffw 4y ago

This is a joke, but it also misses the point: a volatile asset doesn’t have to crash to any particular baseline. It only has to crash below the stake price for its investors.

throwup 4y ago
You're talking about MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value). If it's below 1, it means the average investor is carrying a loss, and > 1 means carrying profit. Historically every halving it has spent some time below 1, and we are right on schedule. https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/ https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/
- yunohn 4y ago
  Crypto (esp BTC) is a well defined zero or negative sum game. How do you propose /most/ people make a profit?
  - throwup 4y ago
    I didn't propose that. I just linked a relevant indicator. If you'd like me to predict the future, I predict that eventually BTC will fill a similar niche as gold - it will outperform cash under the mattress, but underperform index funds. You'll be able to spot the transition when the MVRV starts to center around 1.0 instead of its current ~1.5. But I couldn't begin to guess when that will happen. Maybe this crash is the catalyst, or maybe it will happen a decade from now. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  - ptudan 4y ago
    Please elaborate, how is it a negative sum game?
    - librish 4y ago
      For every person taking money out someone else has to put money in (which would be zero-sum) plus the miners taking their cut.
      - doorman2 4y ago
        By that definition, which financial instruments aren't negative sum? E.g. stocks trade hands in a very similar way, and companies can always issue new shares.
        dragontamer 4y ago
        Company sells stock. The money builds a new factory. Or in the case of Google, a data center, or other such item that allows the company to make more money. Later, when the company is worth more, the shareholder sells the stock back and/or gets a dividend (aka, a slice of the profits). Everyone wins. -------- In contrast, the BTC you bought was likely made using stolen electricity. So we're already negative sum to the start.
        doorman2 4y ago
        The same thing could happen with crypto. A smart contract developer sells crypto to fund development of a smart contract. That smart contract can provide new utility and drive demand for the currency.

TylerE 4y ago

This time it's different. There's no giant pool of FOMOing suckers to drive the next wave.

koolba 4y ago
They said that last time. And the time before. And the time before that. An actual difference is that current inflation levels make another round of stimulus checks highly unlikely. And the current nominal rates for risk free treasuries are high enough to keep large scale cash parked outside as well.
- cj 4y ago
  Another key difference is, IMO, crypto has reached peak saturation. During the previous run ups, we didn't have institutional investors buying billions of Bitcoin, we didn't have public companies (TSLA) buying a billion dollars of BTC for fun, we didn't have sports stadiums with the name "crypto.com", or ads on TV. BTC achieved mass adoption during 2020/2021/2022. It's available in 401k funds, derivatives on the stock market, etc. The only catalyst I can think of that could truly catapult BTC back to the heights of 2020/2021 is if we get to a point at some point in the future where BTC is actually useful for something other than asset speculation and people trying to get rich quick. This could take years.
  - paulpauper 4y ago
    It's sorta useful for illicit goods and as payment for decrypting people's computers which they hadn't consented to being encrypted.
    - propogandist 4y ago
      > useful for illicit goods a purchase traceable down to the KYC’d buyer dumb enough to put their purchase on a public, immutable ledger
- lamontcg 4y ago
  We're still not into an actual recession as well either, and BTC has never been tested by a properly bad recession (2020 doesn't really count due to how sharp the recovery was). It is this bad for crypto right now, and there's going to be no cheap cash coming to rescue it for quite some time. I think it is still possible that there might be a floor down at $4k or so where all the True Believer billionaires may still step in to buy it up and rescue it. If the billionaires themselves are net sellers though needing to raise cash because everything else is in flames (e.g. Elon+Twitter) then it may just fail.

andrewstuart 4y ago

You didn't note the bitcoin high water mark was nearly exactly one year ago at $64,400, versus today at $15,696.