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Another crypto crash? I'm surprised anyone would have serious money still in crypto after the last megacrash, which came after the previous crypto crash.

yieldcrv 4y ago
because everyone following the best practices is unscathed. everyone had a choice to just never touch TerraLuna. everyone had a choice to not keep their funds on exchanges. I'll give some sympathy to custodial smart contracts being drained and advertised as non-custodial, a legal distinction that has little practical distinction for the user except unlimited amounts and no permission needed to use. But you didn't have to use those either. and overcollateralized stablecoins type fiat are still fine (for now) and overcollateralized stablecoins type crypto are still fine with redemptions functioning smoothly through pretty amazing stress tests other kinds of stablecoins are the ones that actually have implosions and make the news, with the notable exception and danger of Tether which still have passed every stress test despite such a large attack surface being consistently attacked by state actors very publicly regardless, it has been entirely possible to have stable value in crypto the whole time, and in fact that's where a majority of the capital is, far beyond any hacks, exploits and exchange implosions. overcollateralized stablecoins are still $120bn and has been a steady amount for the past year. redemptions go well when desired, people just don't desire. and then for the people that actually have the risk profile for volatile assets and self-custody those assets? they're fine too. let the VC and bankruptcy trustees fire-sale, let everything trade for another 90% discount, that's not controversial, commodities trade like that, digital commodities are trading similarly.
- machina_ex_deus 4y ago
  You're cute. In the end of the day this entire shenanigan is a game of musical chairs and as every chair is taken out, you should be more anxious to sit down quickly before the music stops. The actual details hardly matter, this is a game played only by investors, and money is slowly draining. Nobody is inserting new chairs into your musical game, only new participants with their own chairs. Unlike musical chairs, you can leave right now.
  - yieldcrv 4y ago
    > The actual details hardly matter, this is a game played only by investors, and money is slowly draining. and that's not controversial, I'm perfectly fine with that and everyone in the space should be just as objective about their risk profile. We both agree that any other sales pitch for crypto was grifter bingo. I don't consider this platform for investors to be perfect yet, for example I don't consider any stablecoin overcollateralized by fiat to be 'good' and I don't consider any of the stablecoins overcollateralized by crypto to be great yet, there is a lot to build and a lot of value to extract building.
- twblalock 4y ago
  > regardless, it has been entirely possible to have stable value in crypto the whole time Where? Which crypto investments would have resulted in that during the "whole time"? Or even just the last few years?
  - yieldcrv 4y ago
    the point was about storing value in the crypto ecosystem without losing it, after 4 references to stablecoins, so stablecoins. USDC would have been fine. USDT would have been as well, with fluctutations in notional value for brief periods mitigated by redemptions remaining at 100% when redeemed through the issuer in direct contrast to storing on exchanges, or non-stablecoin crypto assets
    - DebtDeflation 4y ago
      What good is a "stablecoin" if the exchange can simply halt withdrawals? If the answer is that they need to be kept in air gapped hardware wallets like all other crypto, then how do you convert from USDT/C to USD? Assuming you can't find someone off exchange to buy it from you.
      - yieldcrv 4y ago
        yes you keep them in the same kind of wallets as other cryptos you can convert them on DEX’s to other cryptos you can sell them on OTC desks you can redeem them for their underlying collateral if using onchain collateral, or with the issuer stop using exchanges. in crypto they are occasionally part of the journey but people act like they are the destination.
        twblalock 4y ago
        > stop using exchanges. in crypto they are occasionally part of the journey but people act like they are the destination. If you ever want normal people to use crypto, exchanges or banks or something similar have to be part of it. Securely storing crypto is just too hard for normal people.
- yunohn 4y ago
  > redemptions go well when desired, people just don't desire Why hold stables? I’m confused why you’re interested in coin pegged to inflationary fiat. The yield accounts are all scams, so that’s definitely not a good idea.
  - yieldcrv 4y ago
    the answer entirely depends on if you are asking from a crypto user perspective or a crypto skeptic perspective for users its just a convenience for staying onchain and having stable value while awaiting other opportunities, if you have the risk profile to hold something else then do that. Its just a trade and a few months of single digit inflationary pressures really is a non-issue
throwup 4y ago
Nothing but crashes. Bitcoin crashed to $2 in 2011, then it crashed to $250 in 2015, then it crashed to $3000 in 2019, and now it's crashed again to $15000. Smart money knows to stay away and avoid the crashes.
- binkHN 4y ago
  So, future crash to $75000 in 2026?
- DonHopkins 4y ago
  Just because your cryptocurrency just lost 90% of its value today, doesn't mean it can't also lose 90% of its value tomorrow too.
- woodruffw 4y ago
  This is a joke, but it also misses the point: a volatile asset doesn’t have to crash to any particular baseline. It only has to crash below the stake price for its investors.
  - throwup 4y ago
    You're talking about MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value). If it's below 1, it means the average investor is carrying a loss, and > 1 means carrying profit. Historically every halving it has spent some time below 1, and we are right on schedule. https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/ https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/
    - yunohn 4y ago
      Crypto (esp BTC) is a well defined zero or negative sum game. How do you propose /most/ people make a profit?
      - throwup 4y ago
        I didn't propose that. I just linked a relevant indicator. If you'd like me to predict the future, I predict that eventually BTC will fill a similar niche as gold - it will outperform cash under the mattress, but underperform index funds. You'll be able to spot the transition when the MVRV starts to center around 1.0 instead of its current ~1.5. But I couldn't begin to guess when that will happen. Maybe this crash is the catalyst, or maybe it will happen a decade from now. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

yieldcrv 4y ago

because everyone following the best practices is unscathed. everyone had a choice to just never touch TerraLuna. everyone had a choice to not keep their funds on exchanges. I'll give some sympathy to custodial smart contracts being drained and advertised as non-custodial, a legal distinction that has little practical distinction for the user except unlimited amounts and no permission needed to use. But you didn't have to use those either. and overcollateralized stablecoins type fiat are still fine (for now) and overcollateralized stablecoins type crypto are still fine with redemptions functioning smoothly through pretty amazing stress tests other kinds of stablecoins are the ones that actually have implosions and make the news, with the notable exception and danger of Tether which still have passed every stress test despite such a large attack surface being consistently attacked by state actors very publicly regardless, it has been entirely possible to have stable value in crypto the whole time, and in fact that's where a majority of the capital is, far beyond any hacks, exploits and exchange implosions. overcollateralized stablecoins are still $120bn and has been a steady amount for the past year. redemptions go well when desired, people just don't desire. and then for the people that actually have the risk profile for volatile assets and self-custody those assets? they're fine too. let the VC and bankruptcy trustees fire-sale, let everything trade for another 90% discount, that's not controversial, commodities trade like that, digital commodities are trading similarly.

machina_ex_deus 4y ago
You're cute. In the end of the day this entire shenanigan is a game of musical chairs and as every chair is taken out, you should be more anxious to sit down quickly before the music stops. The actual details hardly matter, this is a game played only by investors, and money is slowly draining. Nobody is inserting new chairs into your musical game, only new participants with their own chairs. Unlike musical chairs, you can leave right now.
- yieldcrv 4y ago
  > The actual details hardly matter, this is a game played only by investors, and money is slowly draining. and that's not controversial, I'm perfectly fine with that and everyone in the space should be just as objective about their risk profile. We both agree that any other sales pitch for crypto was grifter bingo. I don't consider this platform for investors to be perfect yet, for example I don't consider any stablecoin overcollateralized by fiat to be 'good' and I don't consider any of the stablecoins overcollateralized by crypto to be great yet, there is a lot to build and a lot of value to extract building.
twblalock 4y ago
> regardless, it has been entirely possible to have stable value in crypto the whole time Where? Which crypto investments would have resulted in that during the "whole time"? Or even just the last few years?
- yieldcrv 4y ago
  the point was about storing value in the crypto ecosystem without losing it, after 4 references to stablecoins, so stablecoins. USDC would have been fine. USDT would have been as well, with fluctutations in notional value for brief periods mitigated by redemptions remaining at 100% when redeemed through the issuer in direct contrast to storing on exchanges, or non-stablecoin crypto assets
  - DebtDeflation 4y ago
    What good is a "stablecoin" if the exchange can simply halt withdrawals? If the answer is that they need to be kept in air gapped hardware wallets like all other crypto, then how do you convert from USDT/C to USD? Assuming you can't find someone off exchange to buy it from you.
    - yieldcrv 4y ago
      yes you keep them in the same kind of wallets as other cryptos you can convert them on DEX’s to other cryptos you can sell them on OTC desks you can redeem them for their underlying collateral if using onchain collateral, or with the issuer stop using exchanges. in crypto they are occasionally part of the journey but people act like they are the destination.
      - twblalock 4y ago
        > stop using exchanges. in crypto they are occasionally part of the journey but people act like they are the destination. If you ever want normal people to use crypto, exchanges or banks or something similar have to be part of it. Securely storing crypto is just too hard for normal people.
yunohn 4y ago
> redemptions go well when desired, people just don't desire Why hold stables? I’m confused why you’re interested in coin pegged to inflationary fiat. The yield accounts are all scams, so that’s definitely not a good idea.
- yieldcrv 4y ago
  the answer entirely depends on if you are asking from a crypto user perspective or a crypto skeptic perspective for users its just a convenience for staying onchain and having stable value while awaiting other opportunities, if you have the risk profile to hold something else then do that. Its just a trade and a few months of single digit inflationary pressures really is a non-issue

throwup 4y ago

Nothing but crashes. Bitcoin crashed to $2 in 2011, then it crashed to $250 in 2015, then it crashed to $3000 in 2019, and now it's crashed again to $15000. Smart money knows to stay away and avoid the crashes.

binkHN 4y ago
So, future crash to $75000 in 2026?
DonHopkins 4y ago
Just because your cryptocurrency just lost 90% of its value today, doesn't mean it can't also lose 90% of its value tomorrow too.
woodruffw 4y ago
This is a joke, but it also misses the point: a volatile asset doesn’t have to crash to any particular baseline. It only has to crash below the stake price for its investors.
- throwup 4y ago
  You're talking about MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value). If it's below 1, it means the average investor is carrying a loss, and > 1 means carrying profit. Historically every halving it has spent some time below 1, and we are right on schedule. https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/ https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/
  - yunohn 4y ago
    Crypto (esp BTC) is a well defined zero or negative sum game. How do you propose /most/ people make a profit?
    - throwup 4y ago
      I didn't propose that. I just linked a relevant indicator. If you'd like me to predict the future, I predict that eventually BTC will fill a similar niche as gold - it will outperform cash under the mattress, but underperform index funds. You'll be able to spot the transition when the MVRV starts to center around 1.0 instead of its current ~1.5. But I couldn't begin to guess when that will happen. Maybe this crash is the catalyst, or maybe it will happen a decade from now. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯