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> If China wants to go help itself to a chunk of Siberia, nobody is going to be able to stop it. As someone with north Chinese parents - this isn't as fantasy

> If China wants to go help itself to a chunk of Siberia, nobody is going to be able to stop it. As someone with north Chinese parents - this isn't as fantasy as you might think. We refer to eastern Siberia as "the lost country", and most Chinese believe China has a legitimate claim to it. But beyond historical claims, there is a much much more compelling reason for Chinese expansion into a collapsed Russia, and that is easily visible on Google Maps. The border is heavily developed on one side and completely undeveloped on the other. .....and China needs space to grow. The only thing holding China back is the strategic anti-US alliance and Russian nuclear weapons. If Russia collapses and disarms...

eternalban 4y ago
None of which is lost on Russian leadership. Which is why they are the tail wagging the dog of their nominal allies, China and Iran. Neither of these countries was really prepared for a showdown with the West, and all assumed the plan was to wait out the expected financial collapse of US dollar, using BRI and similar platforms and new organizations. This is still on-going, but RF has basically demonstrated that it sits along the BRI's end points in Europe (meaning it can trivially disrupt it), and has left 2 difficult choices for its allies, specially for China: to break from RF (which guarantees China will remain 2nd tier in global pecking order behind the "Anglo-Saxons" [1]), or, let its future be partly determined by the decisions of Putin's Russia. This is how Russia is addressing it's potential collapse [3]: if it happens, it will take down regional rivals [2] down with it. India may turn out to win big by default .. [1]: basically, Russia's line to them is: if we go down, then you are completely defenseless against the West. [2]: Russia's historic relations with Turkiye, Iran, and China were generally adversarial. [3]: meaning the recent decisions of RF were imo forced escalations (under pretext of Ukraine) that address not only their western front but also their eastern front insecurities. If there had been no war but rather a period culminating in a victorious China (via economic means) then Russia would be completely at the mercy of China, and reduced to energy provider for the end points of BRI: China and EU.
ziotom78 4y ago
> The border is heavily developed on one side and completely undeveloped on the other. .....and China needs space to grow. OMG, you're right, I saw this: https://goo.gl/maps/JMUwEHBixEgieHMb6 https://goo.gl/maps/JMUwEHBixEgieHMb6 Zooming in the area reveals a thick pattern of cultivated fields in the China side, but far fewer in the Russia side.

eternalban 4y ago

None of which is lost on Russian leadership. Which is why they are the tail wagging the dog of their nominal allies, China and Iran. Neither of these countries was really prepared for a showdown with the West, and all assumed the plan was to wait out the expected financial collapse of US dollar, using BRI and similar platforms and new organizations. This is still on-going, but RF has basically demonstrated that it sits along the BRI's end points in Europe (meaning it can trivially disrupt it), and has left 2 difficult choices for its allies, specially for China: to break from RF (which guarantees China will remain 2nd tier in global pecking order behind the "Anglo-Saxons" [1]), or, let its future be partly determined by the decisions of Putin's Russia. This is how Russia is addressing it's potential collapse [3]: if it happens, it will take down regional rivals [2] down with it. India may turn out to win big by default .. [1]: basically, Russia's line to them is: if we go down, then you are completely defenseless against the West. [2]: Russia's historic relations with Turkiye, Iran, and China were generally adversarial. [3]: meaning the recent decisions of RF were imo forced escalations (under pretext of Ukraine) that address not only their western front but also their eastern front insecurities. If there had been no war but rather a period culminating in a victorious China (via economic means) then Russia would be completely at the mercy of China, and reduced to energy provider for the end points of BRI: China and EU.

ziotom78 4y ago

> The border is heavily developed on one side and completely undeveloped on the other. .....and China needs space to grow. OMG, you're right, I saw this: https://goo.gl/maps/JMUwEHBixEgieHMb6 https://goo.gl/maps/JMUwEHBixEgieHMb6 Zooming in the area reveals a thick pattern of cultivated fields in the China side, but far fewer in the Russia side.