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> It's very clear there hasn't been a big GOP win I guess it depends on how you define "big". A supermajority in the Senate was never in the cards. A majorit
by danans 4y ago
> It's very clear there hasn't been a big GOP win
I guess it depends on how you define "big". A supermajority in the Senate was never in the cards. A majority, however slim, would still be (per my own definition) a big win for the GOP.
> They'd need unity on fucking Ukraine over; it seems unlikely all ~51 would be on board here given the popularity of the Ukranians in the war in the US.
I think this is partially because Americans haven't felt the brunt of increased energy prices caused by the war to the degree that Europeans and others have.
If/when that impact hits, the fact that half the country listens to media personalities that are openly supportive of the Russian side and are happy to suggest that appeasing Russia would bring down energy prices, suggests to me that public opinion could change pretty quickly.
And I'll give the GOP credit for one thing: they have listened to what their base voters actually wanted (regardless of the morality of it) and they changed their tune.
I'd love to be wrong, but doubt many people are willing to put the Ukrainians rights to peoplehood over the price of gas at the pump.
- ceejayoz 4y agoA big win would've been what was predicted yesterday morning; the "red wave". Today it's quite clear that if they pulled it off, it was by the slimmest of margins. > I think this is partially because Americans haven't felt the brunt of increased energy prices caused by the war to the degree that Europeans and others have. European polling remains very strongly pro-Ukraine, despite already massive hits to energy costs. 62-14 in the UK (https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/public-continues-support-britains-role-ukraine-conflict https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/public-continues-support-britain...), 70-21 in Germany (https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/germans-resolved-to-support-ukraine-despite-gas-prices-as-fm-visits-kyiv/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/ger...). Those costs are easing now, as well, as Europe has successfully filled up significant reserves and had a very mild November.
- danans 4y ago> European polling remains very strongly pro-Ukraine, despite already massive hits to energy costs I agree, but Europeans are willing to stand their ground despite high energy prices because an uncountered Russia is literally an existential issue for them. They will keep their thermostats at 18C this winter if that's what it takes, just like Americans sacrificed at home during WW2 after the war came to our territory. But that's not the case in the US today. Biden knows this, which is why he went hat-in-hand to the Saudis asking them to increase oil production (only to get double-crossed shorty thereafter).
- ceejayoz 4y agoThe US produces enough oil natural gas to be energy independent; we're not really heavily subject to that particular bit of Russian blackmail. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/US_oil_production%2C_imports%2C_%26_exports.webp https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/US_oil_p... https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c1/US_Natural_Gas.webp https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c1/US_Natur...
- danans 4y agoPerhaps you are right and I should have more faith in my fellow Americans' resolve.