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I agree. The only sensible option at this point is a peace deal.

by mushbino 4y ago

timbit42 4y ago
...which won't last unless Ukraine becomes a member of NATO.
Yizahi 4y ago
Yes, Putin would very much like to popeacedealet and then attack again with fresh forces.
- mcphage 4y ago
  > and then attack again with fresh forces Can they afford fresh forces? Can they afford to replace the hardware they've already lost?
  - Yizahi 4y ago
    Yes they can, unfortunately. Much worse and slower that west would expect, but they can. They have a lot of broken soviet stuff in the storage, which can be somehow repaired at least to the drive and shoot condition, even without fancy active armor or heat optics. They have a capability to manufacture dozens of ballistic missiles per month, so each new month is another 2-3 days of new bombardments in the future. Iran and NK are supplying them with contraband chips and other small but hard to get stuff, while these sources are just a trickle in the active war, but during the peace time they can accumulate a lot of stuff such way. And humans - their mobilization capability is approximately idk 100k-150k of soldiers at one time, due to lack of equipment for them, officers to train them and locations to quarter them. That's why half of new mobilised soldiers recently were sent directly to the active army. But a peace time would afford them to a) train a lot of troops in a batches of 100k, and b) expand mobilisation capacity by a lot, maybe x2 times for example. That's why Putin dropped all of his public demands recently and just about begs USA and Ukraine for the peace talks. ANd it's not because he will admit his defeat, it's to gain a tactical peace for his war.
synu 4y ago
It has to include Ukraine joining NATO or Putin will be back.
ceejayoz 4y ago
They already had a peace deal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum > The memoranda, signed in Patria Hall at the Budapest Convention Center with US Ambassador Donald M. Blinken amongst others in attendance, prohibited the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, "except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations." As a result of other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. There's no reason to believe any new one would be better respected by Russia; it'd be just an opportunity for Russia to rest, rearm, and invest in propaganda efforts.
mrguyorama 4y ago
Nope, Russia can unilaterally walk away from their unprovoked war of aggression and expansion any time.

I agree. The only sensible option at this point is a peace deal.

timbit42 4y ago

...which won't last unless Ukraine becomes a member of NATO.

Yizahi 4y ago

Yes, Putin would very much like to popeacedealet and then attack again with fresh forces.

mcphage 4y ago
> and then attack again with fresh forces Can they afford fresh forces? Can they afford to replace the hardware they've already lost?
- Yizahi 4y ago
  Yes they can, unfortunately. Much worse and slower that west would expect, but they can. They have a lot of broken soviet stuff in the storage, which can be somehow repaired at least to the drive and shoot condition, even without fancy active armor or heat optics. They have a capability to manufacture dozens of ballistic missiles per month, so each new month is another 2-3 days of new bombardments in the future. Iran and NK are supplying them with contraband chips and other small but hard to get stuff, while these sources are just a trickle in the active war, but during the peace time they can accumulate a lot of stuff such way. And humans - their mobilization capability is approximately idk 100k-150k of soldiers at one time, due to lack of equipment for them, officers to train them and locations to quarter them. That's why half of new mobilised soldiers recently were sent directly to the active army. But a peace time would afford them to a) train a lot of troops in a batches of 100k, and b) expand mobilisation capacity by a lot, maybe x2 times for example. That's why Putin dropped all of his public demands recently and just about begs USA and Ukraine for the peace talks. ANd it's not because he will admit his defeat, it's to gain a tactical peace for his war.

synu 4y ago

It has to include Ukraine joining NATO or Putin will be back.

ceejayoz 4y ago

They already had a peace deal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum > The memoranda, signed in Patria Hall at the Budapest Convention Center with US Ambassador Donald M. Blinken amongst others in attendance, prohibited the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, "except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations." As a result of other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. There's no reason to believe any new one would be better respected by Russia; it'd be just an opportunity for Russia to rest, rearm, and invest in propaganda efforts.

mrguyorama 4y ago

Nope, Russia can unilaterally walk away from their unprovoked war of aggression and expansion any time.