3 ms·

UAF can't exactly chase them all the way to the Dniepr can they? It seems quite obvious that they are trying to bait them to follow, and then blow the Kakhovka

UAF can't exactly chase them all the way to the Dniepr can they? It seems quite obvious that they are trying to bait them to follow, and then blow the Kakhovka dam and wash them all away.

roywiggins 4y ago
It seems like it would mostly flood the wrong side of the river to be useful to Russia. > The flooding isn’t enough to push artillery out of range, so the damage would be to all the settlements on the south side (which are not minor, but are claimed by Russia) and to the nuclear plant up river that could loose cooling water. It would seem like more of an own goal, flooding the south side — the left bank — more than any damage to liberated Kherson. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/20/2130299/-A-3D-Look-at-Nova-Kakhovka-Flood-Effect https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/20/2130299/-A-3D-Lo...
miohtama 4y ago
The city is likely filled with mines, so chasing won’t be fast. Russia had good time to dig in.
Yizahi 4y ago
Next Ukrainian deoccupation will likely happen directly south from Zaporizhzhia which would cut occupying forces in two halves. Then left bank Dnieper river forces can be attacked from the east, without crossing big rever (and right bank Ukrainian forces can meanwhile strategically blow up things with St. Himars and other artillery).
- varjag 4y ago
  A push along Svatove-Luhansk is equally likely.
  - Yizahi 4y ago
    They will probably threaten both areas and then attack whichever is weaker at the moment, just like in September.
  - int_19h 4y ago
    It seems that it would be more beneficial for them to split Russian-held territory in the south, since that would restrict one chunk to being supplied via Crimea and airdrops only.
LegitShady 4y ago
It's a trap - while visibly talking about retreating from Kherson, according to Ukrainian intelligence they've actually boosted troop numbers in Kherson in the last 2 weeks (from ~20k to ~30k) and dug into the city very hard. They want the Ukrainians fighting to take ground around Kherson and then spend months fighting street by street (as russians have failed to do in Bakhmut) all under pre-sighted Russian artillery sitting pretty on the south side of the Dniepr. They don't want to blow the damn, they want to embroil the ukrainians in a grind like the ukrainians did to them in bakhmut, with a prize the ukrainians are unlikely to turn down.
treis 4y ago
I'm not sure why you think the UAF can't do that. They've taken other territory and have shown a capacity for offense. A brief look at the map will show that holding Kherson is basically impossible and a huge risk for Russia. It has a single bridge across the Dneiper and it's on the outskirts of the city. That's the only supply/retreat line forces defending the city have. There's no good options. Defend the city then Ukraine attacks the supply line. Defend the supply line then Ukraine attacks the city. Try to do both and risk losing everything.

UAF can't exactly chase them all the way to the Dniepr can they? It seems quite obvious that they are trying to bait them to follow, and then blow the Kakhovka dam and wash them all away.

roywiggins 4y ago

It seems like it would mostly flood the wrong side of the river to be useful to Russia. > The flooding isn’t enough to push artillery out of range, so the damage would be to all the settlements on the south side (which are not minor, but are claimed by Russia) and to the nuclear plant up river that could loose cooling water. It would seem like more of an own goal, flooding the south side — the left bank — more than any damage to liberated Kherson. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/20/2130299/-A-3D-Look-at-Nova-Kakhovka-Flood-Effect https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/20/2130299/-A-3D-Lo...

miohtama 4y ago

The city is likely filled with mines, so chasing won’t be fast. Russia had good time to dig in.

Yizahi 4y ago

Next Ukrainian deoccupation will likely happen directly south from Zaporizhzhia which would cut occupying forces in two halves. Then left bank Dnieper river forces can be attacked from the east, without crossing big rever (and right bank Ukrainian forces can meanwhile strategically blow up things with St. Himars and other artillery).

varjag 4y ago
A push along Svatove-Luhansk is equally likely.
- Yizahi 4y ago
  They will probably threaten both areas and then attack whichever is weaker at the moment, just like in September.
- int_19h 4y ago
  It seems that it would be more beneficial for them to split Russian-held territory in the south, since that would restrict one chunk to being supplied via Crimea and airdrops only.

LegitShady 4y ago

It's a trap - while visibly talking about retreating from Kherson, according to Ukrainian intelligence they've actually boosted troop numbers in Kherson in the last 2 weeks (from ~20k to ~30k) and dug into the city very hard. They want the Ukrainians fighting to take ground around Kherson and then spend months fighting street by street (as russians have failed to do in Bakhmut) all under pre-sighted Russian artillery sitting pretty on the south side of the Dniepr. They don't want to blow the damn, they want to embroil the ukrainians in a grind like the ukrainians did to them in bakhmut, with a prize the ukrainians are unlikely to turn down.

treis 4y ago

I'm not sure why you think the UAF can't do that. They've taken other territory and have shown a capacity for offense. A brief look at the map will show that holding Kherson is basically impossible and a huge risk for Russia. It has a single bridge across the Dneiper and it's on the outskirts of the city. That's the only supply/retreat line forces defending the city have. There's no good options. Defend the city then Ukraine attacks the supply line. Defend the supply line then Ukraine attacks the city. Try to do both and risk losing everything.