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>Demographic breakdown is a lot more important than a single number Yes, and people fixate on the pyramid when they should be focusing on the talent pool (prob

>Demographic breakdown is a lot more important than a single number Yes, and people fixate on the pyramid when they should be focusing on the talent pool (probably because of Zeihan), in which case PRC is only starting to exploit the largest educated / skilled worker demographics divident in human history. Basically what drove JP,SKR,TW to double/triple their GDP while their TFR crashed. >single number That single number of 1.4B relative to PRC geography is difficult to ecologically sustain. Roughly 600M are excess people, too old and uneducated to be properly integrated in modern economy. They're the first to age/die out, which will incrementally increase PRC strategic autonomy. >attempts at population control PRC family planning prevented estimated 200-300M of births, which would only add to net drain. Yeah present pyramid will make transitioning from 1.4B to 1B over next century painful, though not that painful given PRC high savings rate. There's both cause for concern and celebration. But the general trend points to PRC having some of the best demographics in recorded history for improving national power which =/= human flourishing.

SkyMarshal 4y ago
Good analysis, I agree. Zeihan is good at creating confident-sounding narratives that seem reasonable on the surface, but often missing deeper, important considerations like this. The main generator of innovation is how many clever people you have hacking and tinkering with new ideas and trying to reify them. It's primarily a weighted numbers game, with education, cultural work ethic, and poltical-economic system adding some weight to more favorable outcomes. As you observe, much of the coming population culling in China will be people less able to contribute to that dynamic. What's left will be a smaller but still immense population of people, ~3x the US and ~2x Europe, a greater proportion of which are able to contribute as innovation generators.

SkyMarshal 4y ago

Good analysis, I agree. Zeihan is good at creating confident-sounding narratives that seem reasonable on the surface, but often missing deeper, important considerations like this. The main generator of innovation is how many clever people you have hacking and tinkering with new ideas and trying to reify them. It's primarily a weighted numbers game, with education, cultural work ethic, and poltical-economic system adding some weight to more favorable outcomes. As you observe, much of the coming population culling in China will be people less able to contribute to that dynamic. What's left will be a smaller but still immense population of people, ~3x the US and ~2x Europe, a greater proportion of which are able to contribute as innovation generators.