5 ms·

>Will this over flood the market and bring expectations and salaries down? Well I predict two things: One, the days of $200-500k TC being common and widesprea

>Will this over flood the market and bring expectations and salaries down? Well I predict two things: One, the days of $200-500k TC being common and widespread are going to end. If you're in this bracket, or about to break into it, yeah be worried, it's probably going to evaporate. Two, the CV value of Meta, Snap, Stripe, etc. is also going to end. I don't think they will command the same premium in the jobs market from now(ish) onward.

alfalfasprout 4y ago
Not really. If anything junior engineers are not going to see comp like this going forward. But it's still incredibly hard to hire more senior folks even with big comp packages and they do command a premium. Expect the median to go down, doubtful the top 25% will change much.
- 015a 4y ago
  Its also worth noting: Its easy to get scared by a number like "11,000", but just pulling estimates out of my ass; engineering likely represented less than 20%, and the bias toward those let go in engineering is likely junior. Not asserting no one senior was let go; just proportionality. Here's what I'd add: Its extremely difficult to hire really talented senior engineers. Its easy to look at layoffs as "great, we should be able to find senior talent now"; but the opposite may actually be true. Layoffs, at least in otherwise "fine" companies, will predominately not impact senior engineers, and they'll also be less likely to leave. Moreover, the industry is effectively building a wall to breach into seniority; the pathway from junior to senior is harder and harder, even going back a year or two, and many of these junior/normal devs were massively compensated at these roles. My heart goes out to the junior devs right now; there really are two industries and job markets.
ripper1138 4y ago
It was obvious that those days were going to end eventually, it was never going to be sustainable. A few people I knew were deciding between job offers at beginning of this year and I straight up said take the most comp, this shit isn’t gonna last forever…
- type-r 4y ago
  on the face, it should be pretty easily sustainable based on the profit per employee these companies make. i guess we just really hate anyone but shareholders actually getting a piece of the pie.
  - trgn 4y ago
    The total revenue of some of these companies is absolutely just mindblowing, normalized by number of employees even more so.
    - shagie 4y ago
      https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=AAPL+GOOG+META https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=AAPL+GOOG+META | Apple | Google | Meta market cap | $2.245 trillion | $1.163 trillion | $261.8 billion revenue | $387.5 billion | $278.1 billion | $117.9 billion employees | 154000 | 174014 | 71970 revenue / employee | $2.517 million | $1.598 million | $1.639 million
      - pishpash 4y ago
        Revenue isn't profit. Now show profit/employee.
        shagie 4y ago
        AAPL - $1.09M https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=AAPL+gross+profit+per+employee https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=AAPL+gross+profit+per+e... GOOG - $907k https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=GOOG+gross+profit+per+employee https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=GOOG+gross+profit+per+e... META - $1.32M https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=META+gross+profit+per+employee https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=META+gross+profit+per+e...
      - steviesands 4y ago
        I checked a few days ago and the revenue per employee at big tech is eerily similar to "Biglaw" and non retail banking (Jones day, >200k entry level, goldman is similar) at 1-2mil per employee. One could argue the market for IB/trading has been saturated by applicants for years but they pay is still well above norms ~>150k entry level. Pretty interesting.
spacemadness 4y ago
Non-developers in the Bay Area dream of this happening.
- gretch 4y ago
  Why? The top end comp creates a competitive pressure where the middle and low end benefit and get skewed upward If bay-area comp drops, what do you think will happen to developer comp in the midwest? (refer to programmer compensation before 90s+ SV was a thing)
  - spacemadness 4y ago
    I don’t think you understand what group I’m referring to. I’m referring to people not in tech.
    - volkk 4y ago
      i would imagine other industries are going to suffer as well. my partner worked in fashion for a decade and realized it was horrendous and nothing was changing so she went to a bootcamp for UX design and got a job not too long ago. the pressure of the success of another industry would force bad industries to change certain ways of working for the better. when there is 0 competition, there is nothing stopping outdated and overworked industries from becoming any better. like it or not, the tech industry has helped elevate the broader market to a certain degree
    - gretch 4y ago
      Oh yeah you're right. I read it as "developers in the non-Bay Area" Nonetheless, I don't think the point changes. One group getting less doesn't usually mean that it's going to transfer over and some other group will get less. Most likely, everyone is going to get less. Rising tide lifts all ships as they say (and the opposite is true as well)
Vibgyor5 4y ago
I think the folks who rode the ride a couple years back got it good: somewhere around 2012-2019 was great time for someone who had worked at marquee tech companies, had massive stock options, and commanded premium on the job market when they moved on from their orgs.
- draw_down 4y ago
ar_lan 4y ago
I just can't really believe this at all, unless these companies entirely crumble. It's just not feasible for the majority of folks to live comfortably in the Bay Area with a family at less than $200k TC. I make ~$300k/yr and could probably swing $200k/yr if I didn't save anything (I save ~$100k/yr currently). I just can't imagine it being reasonable with housing + other costs. 1. Housing costs are elevated here more than anywhere else in the world. 2. Cost of goods is drastically higher here than other parts. The (roughly) same amount of groceries from a local Sprouts here (we spend ~$100/wk), is almost always $30 less everytime we go back home for some durations of time to be with family. 3. Cost of services like daycare or anything else necesary to let the work happen take note and charge enormously. As it stands, between housing + utilities, our spend is about $8000/mo (factoring in the odd things as well like car repairs over time). To accomodate that, I'd need $100k/yr after-tax, and that assumes that nothing drastic ever happens, and factors in no savings at all. We could downsize and save $10k/yr, but that's not really making a substantial dent long-term. $200k realistically feels like a minimum to keep any kind of young families in the area. I could definitely do with less salary if I could move, but companies are very wishy-washy about remote work. Until that is solved, or the Bay Area calms down, these salaries aren't going anywhere. But if remote work is embraced even more, than returning to say $150k is completely reasonable.
- pedrosorio 4y ago
  If you earn $300k before tax and save $100k, clearly you could do just fine while earning less than $200k.
- hnfong 4y ago
  The housing costs in the Bay Area are primarily caused by 300k salaries from companies in the area. It's not going to crumble immediately, but I can imagine that if the (to-be-)recession drags on, there's be a downward pressure on both salary and housing prices (and other costs of living). Nobody is going to cut your pay in half, but those 8k/month rents are just a function of the demand (of housing) and supply (of money) in the area, not really a law of nature..

alfalfasprout 4y ago

Not really. If anything junior engineers are not going to see comp like this going forward. But it's still incredibly hard to hire more senior folks even with big comp packages and they do command a premium. Expect the median to go down, doubtful the top 25% will change much.

015a 4y ago
Its also worth noting: Its easy to get scared by a number like "11,000", but just pulling estimates out of my ass; engineering likely represented less than 20%, and the bias toward those let go in engineering is likely junior. Not asserting no one senior was let go; just proportionality. Here's what I'd add: Its extremely difficult to hire really talented senior engineers. Its easy to look at layoffs as "great, we should be able to find senior talent now"; but the opposite may actually be true. Layoffs, at least in otherwise "fine" companies, will predominately not impact senior engineers, and they'll also be less likely to leave. Moreover, the industry is effectively building a wall to breach into seniority; the pathway from junior to senior is harder and harder, even going back a year or two, and many of these junior/normal devs were massively compensated at these roles. My heart goes out to the junior devs right now; there really are two industries and job markets.

ripper1138 4y ago

It was obvious that those days were going to end eventually, it was never going to be sustainable. A few people I knew were deciding between job offers at beginning of this year and I straight up said take the most comp, this shit isn’t gonna last forever…

type-r 4y ago
on the face, it should be pretty easily sustainable based on the profit per employee these companies make. i guess we just really hate anyone but shareholders actually getting a piece of the pie.
- trgn 4y ago
  The total revenue of some of these companies is absolutely just mindblowing, normalized by number of employees even more so.
  - shagie 4y ago
    https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=AAPL+GOOG+META https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=AAPL+GOOG+META | Apple | Google | Meta market cap | $2.245 trillion | $1.163 trillion | $261.8 billion revenue | $387.5 billion | $278.1 billion | $117.9 billion employees | 154000 | 174014 | 71970 revenue / employee | $2.517 million | $1.598 million | $1.639 million
    - pishpash 4y ago
      Revenue isn't profit. Now show profit/employee.
      - shagie 4y ago
        AAPL - $1.09M https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=AAPL+gross+profit+per+employee https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=AAPL+gross+profit+per+e... GOOG - $907k https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=GOOG+gross+profit+per+employee https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=GOOG+gross+profit+per+e... META - $1.32M https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=META+gross+profit+per+employee https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=META+gross+profit+per+e...
    - steviesands 4y ago
      I checked a few days ago and the revenue per employee at big tech is eerily similar to "Biglaw" and non retail banking (Jones day, >200k entry level, goldman is similar) at 1-2mil per employee. One could argue the market for IB/trading has been saturated by applicants for years but they pay is still well above norms ~>150k entry level. Pretty interesting.

spacemadness 4y ago

Non-developers in the Bay Area dream of this happening.

gretch 4y ago
Why? The top end comp creates a competitive pressure where the middle and low end benefit and get skewed upward If bay-area comp drops, what do you think will happen to developer comp in the midwest? (refer to programmer compensation before 90s+ SV was a thing)
- spacemadness 4y ago
  I don’t think you understand what group I’m referring to. I’m referring to people not in tech.
  - volkk 4y ago
    i would imagine other industries are going to suffer as well. my partner worked in fashion for a decade and realized it was horrendous and nothing was changing so she went to a bootcamp for UX design and got a job not too long ago. the pressure of the success of another industry would force bad industries to change certain ways of working for the better. when there is 0 competition, there is nothing stopping outdated and overworked industries from becoming any better. like it or not, the tech industry has helped elevate the broader market to a certain degree
  - gretch 4y ago
    Oh yeah you're right. I read it as "developers in the non-Bay Area" Nonetheless, I don't think the point changes. One group getting less doesn't usually mean that it's going to transfer over and some other group will get less. Most likely, everyone is going to get less. Rising tide lifts all ships as they say (and the opposite is true as well)

Vibgyor5 4y ago

I think the folks who rode the ride a couple years back got it good: somewhere around 2012-2019 was great time for someone who had worked at marquee tech companies, had massive stock options, and commanded premium on the job market when they moved on from their orgs.

draw_down 4y ago

ar_lan 4y ago

I just can't really believe this at all, unless these companies entirely crumble. It's just not feasible for the majority of folks to live comfortably in the Bay Area with a family at less than $200k TC. I make ~$300k/yr and could probably swing $200k/yr if I didn't save anything (I save ~$100k/yr currently). I just can't imagine it being reasonable with housing + other costs. 1. Housing costs are elevated here more than anywhere else in the world. 2. Cost of goods is drastically higher here than other parts. The (roughly) same amount of groceries from a local Sprouts here (we spend ~$100/wk), is almost always $30 less everytime we go back home for some durations of time to be with family. 3. Cost of services like daycare or anything else necesary to let the work happen take note and charge enormously. As it stands, between housing + utilities, our spend is about $8000/mo (factoring in the odd things as well like car repairs over time). To accomodate that, I'd need $100k/yr after-tax, and that assumes that nothing drastic ever happens, and factors in no savings at all. We could downsize and save $10k/yr, but that's not really making a substantial dent long-term. $200k realistically feels like a minimum to keep any kind of young families in the area. I could definitely do with less salary if I could move, but companies are very wishy-washy about remote work. Until that is solved, or the Bay Area calms down, these salaries aren't going anywhere. But if remote work is embraced even more, than returning to say $150k is completely reasonable.

pedrosorio 4y ago
If you earn $300k before tax and save $100k, clearly you could do just fine while earning less than $200k.
hnfong 4y ago
The housing costs in the Bay Area are primarily caused by 300k salaries from companies in the area. It's not going to crumble immediately, but I can imagine that if the (to-be-)recession drags on, there's be a downward pressure on both salary and housing prices (and other costs of living). Nobody is going to cut your pay in half, but those 8k/month rents are just a function of the demand (of housing) and supply (of money) in the area, not really a law of nature..