The quality of forecasting here looks questionable IMO... Let's take the only visible leaked slide below: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/global-health

The quality of forecasting here looks questionable IMO... Let's take the only visible leaked slide below: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/global-health/2022/11/08/IMG_5175_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqRo0U4xU-30oDveS4pXV-Vv4Xpit_DMGvdp2n7FDd82k.jpeg?imwidth=1280 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/global-health/2022/1... 1) The forecast appears to be "200 new cases per month" (i.e. Month 1 is 200 cases, Month 3 is 600 cases (3200) and Month 4 is 1200 cases (6200)). This is far too simplistic, and should probably follow an exponential/logistic curve if r>1. 2) The graph has simple stats failures like plotting a line between a bar chart. Doesn't give me too much hope for the other 15 slides... (The above isn't to say that it isn't a scary situation - clearly this is an awful situation which needs a huge amount of support. But the apparent quality of analysis does worry me that decision makers might not be working on great information)