3 ms·
just looking at the graph: why do they expect this to be linear? Their graph has two lines: (month 0 == december) - totalcases = 180*month+300 - totaldeaths
by nlitsme 4y ago
just looking at the graph: why do they expect this to be linear?
Their graph has two lines: (month 0 == december)
- totalcases = 180*month+300
- totaldeaths = 83*month+84
Recent experience with covid shows that usually epidemics initially grow exponentially.
- Closi 4y agoYou are right - the government analysis looks like garbage IMHO. The slide shows that they are actually just forecasting (month * 200) cases which is obviously not the way you should do this. The slide also has a bar chart with a line between the bars, which is a stats-bad-smell too (at least shows that whoever pulled this together doesn't understand how to display data). I know this is a developing nation that won't have the same level of availability of statisticians and epidemiologists, but it's worrying how basic this is.