4 ms·

I went to a day of her trial (there were no high-profile witnesses that day, so it was easy to get in). It was excruciatingly boring, like most trials and unlik

I went to a day of her trial (there were no high-profile witnesses that day, so it was easy to get in). It was excruciatingly boring, like most trials and unlike trials on TV. Her chair was noticeably higher than everyone else's at her table, although she's not especially tall (5'7"). Prediction: 18 months. On hold until all the appeals are exhausted.

newaccount2021 4y ago
Overtonwindow 4y ago
Why on hold? That's another example of rich privilege. Why should she have her sentence delayed until all appeals are exhausted? Non-rich people are not typically afforded such luxury, it's off to jail immediately.
- jimt1234 4y ago
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeOVbeh2yr0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeOVbeh2yr0
- vkou 4y ago
  > Why should she have her sentence delayed until all appeals are exhausted? Because the legal system would grind to a halt if everyone got their day in court, but chugs along just fine if only a small privileged group is given full protection under the law. It's the same reason why Snowden is hiding in Russia, while another prominent individual who stole classified documents hasn't even been arrested.
  - everybodyknows 4y ago
    > another prominent individual who stole classified documents hasn't even been ... Close watchers of the case assume timing of an indictment to be predicated on minimizing risk of civil disorder. Therefore after mid-term elections, and as early as practical before 2024 campaigning ramps up: https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/11/08/head-of-republican-party-attempts-to-stave-off-multiple-indictments-by-announcing-early/ https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/11/08/head-of-republican-par...
    - yamtaddle 4y ago
      Could be noise (it often is with him) but Trump's mentioned—today or yesterday, I think—Nov. 15th as the date for some "big announcement". It's been expected that he'll announce his 2024 candidacy at some point, to try to head off indictments or other legal trouble, or at least make more political hay out of them. Might be that's what he's got planned for that day, if he expects an indictment after the noise from the midterms dies down. Far enough out not to make the midterms a referendum on him (that is, GOTV for the other side by accident) like it might if he announced today or earlier, and early enough to slip in before the DOJ feels comfortable issuing an indictment because there will surely be all kinds of disputes going on. Maybe even timed well to ride that disinfo wave for some free publicity.
givemeethekeys 4y ago
Slap on the wrist if it's just 18 months. Compare that to Wesley Snipes, who got 3 years for tax evasion.
mikeyouse 4y ago
Federal sentencing is pretty straightforward - they use a chart that looks like "times tables" from 5th grade math class and just add up all of the points associated with the crimes she was convicted of. Holmes is far more likely to do 20+ years than 18 months. https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/substantial-sentence-likely-for-3767072/ https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/substantial-sentence-likel...
- Cupertino95014 4y ago
  I said: money talks, BS walks. We can find someone to take our bets, I'm sure.
  - mikeyouse 4y ago
    How about a friendly bet then, I'll donate $10 to the charity of your choice if her sentence is under 15 years and you can donate $10 to the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society (https://www.lls.org/ https://www.lls.org/) if it's over 3 years?
    - Cupertino95014 4y ago
      Same number of years, or no deal.
      - Cupertino95014 4y ago
        Actually, I'll take that back, since you're giving me the hugely better deal. Also, our charities, since if she gets 5 years, we both donate. You sure about this? There's still a question about suspended sentences and community service - do those count? I say No.
        mikeyouse 4y ago
        Yeah if it’s more than 3 and less than 15 we’d both donate. And yeah, just prison time, if she gets 24 months in prison and 24 suspended, you’re off the hook. I still like my odds!

newaccount2021 4y ago

Overtonwindow 4y ago

Why on hold? That's another example of rich privilege. Why should she have her sentence delayed until all appeals are exhausted? Non-rich people are not typically afforded such luxury, it's off to jail immediately.

jimt1234 4y ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeOVbeh2yr0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeOVbeh2yr0
vkou 4y ago
> Why should she have her sentence delayed until all appeals are exhausted? Because the legal system would grind to a halt if everyone got their day in court, but chugs along just fine if only a small privileged group is given full protection under the law. It's the same reason why Snowden is hiding in Russia, while another prominent individual who stole classified documents hasn't even been arrested.
- everybodyknows 4y ago
  > another prominent individual who stole classified documents hasn't even been ... Close watchers of the case assume timing of an indictment to be predicated on minimizing risk of civil disorder. Therefore after mid-term elections, and as early as practical before 2024 campaigning ramps up: https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/11/08/head-of-republican-party-attempts-to-stave-off-multiple-indictments-by-announcing-early/ https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/11/08/head-of-republican-par...
  - yamtaddle 4y ago
    Could be noise (it often is with him) but Trump's mentioned—today or yesterday, I think—Nov. 15th as the date for some "big announcement". It's been expected that he'll announce his 2024 candidacy at some point, to try to head off indictments or other legal trouble, or at least make more political hay out of them. Might be that's what he's got planned for that day, if he expects an indictment after the noise from the midterms dies down. Far enough out not to make the midterms a referendum on him (that is, GOTV for the other side by accident) like it might if he announced today or earlier, and early enough to slip in before the DOJ feels comfortable issuing an indictment because there will surely be all kinds of disputes going on. Maybe even timed well to ride that disinfo wave for some free publicity.

givemeethekeys 4y ago

Slap on the wrist if it's just 18 months. Compare that to Wesley Snipes, who got 3 years for tax evasion.

mikeyouse 4y ago

Federal sentencing is pretty straightforward - they use a chart that looks like "times tables" from 5th grade math class and just add up all of the points associated with the crimes she was convicted of. Holmes is far more likely to do 20+ years than 18 months. https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/substantial-sentence-likely-for-3767072/ https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/substantial-sentence-likel...

Cupertino95014 4y ago
I said: money talks, BS walks. We can find someone to take our bets, I'm sure.
- mikeyouse 4y ago
  How about a friendly bet then, I'll donate $10 to the charity of your choice if her sentence is under 15 years and you can donate $10 to the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society (https://www.lls.org/ https://www.lls.org/) if it's over 3 years?
  - Cupertino95014 4y ago
    Same number of years, or no deal.
    - Cupertino95014 4y ago
      Actually, I'll take that back, since you're giving me the hugely better deal. Also, our charities, since if she gets 5 years, we both donate. You sure about this? There's still a question about suspended sentences and community service - do those count? I say No.
      - mikeyouse 4y ago
        Yeah if it’s more than 3 and less than 15 we’d both donate. And yeah, just prison time, if she gets 24 months in prison and 24 suspended, you’re off the hook. I still like my odds!