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It will and there is a very simple reason it is going to happen. These products are built purely on trust. These things do not have any innate value. More than
by twawaaay 4y ago
It will and there is a very simple reason it is going to happen.
These products are built purely on trust. These things do not have any innate value. More than that, there is nobody that can be trusted that guarantees the value of it.
Now think about long term stability of something that has value built purely on sentiment and the sentiment changes over time in waves thanks to globalisation.
It is just a matter of time until people, for one reason or another, will get themselves into a spiral where the thing losing value will cause people to loose more trust, causing the value to drop. And there is nothing to stop it except large institutions that have power to manipulate market (if you remember Game Stop saga you know what I mean).
A normal, tangible thing like a company that is profitable and has some future will see ups and downs as the sentiment changes, but the shares will always have some value because not all investors are completely irrational and some investors can calculate the value and at some point will say "Fuck all those people selling it, I think they are all mistaken because I can actually calculate the value of it and the shares are now cheaper than they should be so I am buying".
This should be enough for the instrument to weather even very negative but temporary sentiment.
But this is not true for crypto. Crypto does not have innate value and when it goes crashing down it can easily crash to zero.
Over long time, without giant institutional investors propping it up constantly, it is guaranteed that it will happen at some point.
- new2this 4y agoThis comment seems to be focused on the viability of any individual crypto, but that _shouldn't_ matter for the value of a company like FTX. FTX has value because it has customers, growth, and most importantly: revenue. If any one crypto goes bust then it shouldn't hurt FTX in the long run, unless they were leveraging that crypto to make unscrupulous bets. That very well could be happening via Alemeda. So you may be right that this is destined to come crashing down, but it doesn't seem like the facts are proven yet
- twawaaay 4y agoI can't speak about FTX the company, because I just don't know their business. I am speaking about crypto in general. From what I have seen a lot of companies popped up that are purely bound to crypto and so almost all of them will fall when crypto falls. Only very small minority have enough business footprint outside of crypto or will be able to pivot in time to avoid demise if it happens.
- landemva 4y agoAnd this is a good description of the diamond industry, which has value because people believe it is valuable.
- dopidopHN 4y agoNot a fan of Stevenson, but his « Diamond age » novel somehow stays with me and I reflect on our present thought some of that lense.