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All of HN knows that Tether is a scam that will implode AnyMomentNow (TM). However, notice how for the second time in a year an unexpected crypto entity (FTX/A

by 323 4y ago

All of HN knows that Tether is a scam that will implode AnyMomentNow (TM). However, notice how for the second time in a year an unexpected crypto entity (FTX/Alameda) is the actual one which is in difficulty. The first time being 3AC/Celsius. In finance, when everybody knows something, it's 95% likely to be false.

mschuster91 4y ago
The problem with scams and pyramid schemes is that they can survive for a very, very long time limping around - all they have to do is pay off enough angry people that doubts don't explode too much and cause legal trouble, or have enough gullible fools which don't want to sell because of sunk cost fallacy. Crypto scams/schemes and also legitimate crypto service providers also have another vulnerability: getting hacked or external influences (e.g. economic crises, legislation, sanctions or asset seizures) making their business model impossible to continue. The problem is: it's sometimes very hard to determine if a crypto service is a scam, a pyramid scheme, a money-laundering operation or a legitimate service. And almost nothing of it (except certain NFTs which have legally bound real world entities tied to them such as [1]) is backed by actual real-world liquid-ish assets. [1] https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/the-first-nft-home-just-sold-for-175000/437522 https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/the-first-nft-hom...
spywaregorilla 4y ago
I think it's a really hot take to point at a scammy crypto entity falling to pieces and conclude that this is evidence crypto skeptics are wrong.
- 323 4y ago
  No, it's evidence of group think and lack of critical thinking. If HN can spot scams so easily, how come there was no talk here about 3AC/Celsius and now FTX/Alameda being obvious scams.
  - spywaregorilla 4y ago
    Because it's really hard to identify a specific needle in a haystack comprised entirely of needles.
  - mrguyorama 4y ago
    There was literally an article about FTX trouble here just the other day.
heurist 4y ago
FTX has been throwing out red flags for the year or two I've been aware of them. I made this comment four months ago (around the time of 3AC) about how they weren't making sense: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31937498 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31937498 My hackles go up when I see money suddenly appear from nowhere

by 323 4y ago

mschuster91 4y ago

The problem with scams and pyramid schemes is that they can survive for a very, very long time limping around - all they have to do is pay off enough angry people that doubts don't explode too much and cause legal trouble, or have enough gullible fools which don't want to sell because of sunk cost fallacy. Crypto scams/schemes and also legitimate crypto service providers also have another vulnerability: getting hacked or external influences (e.g. economic crises, legislation, sanctions or asset seizures) making their business model impossible to continue. The problem is: it's sometimes very hard to determine if a crypto service is a scam, a pyramid scheme, a money-laundering operation or a legitimate service. And almost nothing of it (except certain NFTs which have legally bound real world entities tied to them such as [1]) is backed by actual real-world liquid-ish assets. [1] https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/the-first-nft-home-just-sold-for-175000/437522 https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/the-first-nft-hom...

spywaregorilla 4y ago

I think it's a really hot take to point at a scammy crypto entity falling to pieces and conclude that this is evidence crypto skeptics are wrong.

323 4y ago
No, it's evidence of group think and lack of critical thinking. If HN can spot scams so easily, how come there was no talk here about 3AC/Celsius and now FTX/Alameda being obvious scams.
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  Because it's really hard to identify a specific needle in a haystack comprised entirely of needles.
- mrguyorama 4y ago
  There was literally an article about FTX trouble here just the other day.

heurist 4y ago

FTX has been throwing out red flags for the year or two I've been aware of them. I made this comment four months ago (around the time of 3AC) about how they weren't making sense: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31937498 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31937498 My hackles go up when I see money suddenly appear from nowhere