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No. There isn't enough liquidity in the market to even sell that amount. They also do these things over the counter, in auctions, which wouldn't have an effect

No. There isn't enough liquidity in the market to even sell that amount. They also do these things over the counter, in auctions, which wouldn't have an effect on market pricing at all.

mensetmanusman 4y ago
“ There isn't enough liquidity in the market to even sell that amount. “ That’s exactly my point ;) If they overwhelm liquidity, the price can collapse because they can always underbid those trying to sell.
- latchkey 4y ago
  Except, that isn't what happens, so it makes your statement incorrect. The US could also overwhelm [insert any free market] by simply executing eminent domain and/or printing enough money.
three_seagrass 4y ago
The lack of liquidity is what would push the price down, since demand is higher at lower prices.
- latchkey 4y ago
  Yes, that is generally how markets work. However there is no central exchange for bitcoin, nor is there enough liquidity in any single exchange. So, the seller would need to open accounts in multiple exchanges and sell in all of them. Sure, bringing down one exchange could have consequences for price, but it wouldn't cover this large of an amount of BTC. Plus, half the exchanges with enough liquidity to even begin with, aren't even allowed to be used in the US. Again, that's not how the US govt works with these things anyway (OTC auctions), so it is all a moot point.
  - rideontime 4y ago
    Ok, so someone buys the bitcoin at auction for pennies on the dollar, turns around and undercuts every other seller out there.
    - latchkey 4y ago
      It is an auction, it won't be pennies on the dollar. The last person who got that good of a deal was Tim Draper in 2014, which was a brilliant play and even then, I doubt he's sold it all. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/19/what-the-us-government-does-with-its-secret-bitcoin-stockpile.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/19/what-the-us-government-does-...
  - three_seagrass 4y ago
    There absolutely are HFTs running off arbitrage on the major exchanges, so you wouldn't need to hit many, just a couple major ones. We are talking about theoretically crashing the market, not an auction, and illiquidity won't protect it.
lern_too_spel 4y ago
OK, fine. The person who buys these Bitcoins at auction could cause BTC to crash on all the exchanges.
- latchkey 4y ago
  Why would someone spend a bunch of money to buy bitcoin and then crash the price? Is that like the ultimate tax loss write-off? ;-)
  - lern_too_spel 4y ago
    Who says they have to spend a bunch of money? The amount of money anybody would pay for it is the amount they could get from selling it, which is limited by liquidity. Add the fun they would get from crashing the market, and that is fair market value that these Bitcoins can get at auction.
  - kristianp 4y ago
    They could buy futures at a lower price before crashing the markets.

No. There isn't enough liquidity in the market to even sell that amount. They also do these things over the counter, in auctions, which wouldn't have an effect on market pricing at all.

mensetmanusman 4y ago

“ There isn't enough liquidity in the market to even sell that amount. “ That’s exactly my point ;) If they overwhelm liquidity, the price can collapse because they can always underbid those trying to sell.

latchkey 4y ago
Except, that isn't what happens, so it makes your statement incorrect. The US could also overwhelm [insert any free market] by simply executing eminent domain and/or printing enough money.

three_seagrass 4y ago

The lack of liquidity is what would push the price down, since demand is higher at lower prices.

latchkey 4y ago
Yes, that is generally how markets work. However there is no central exchange for bitcoin, nor is there enough liquidity in any single exchange. So, the seller would need to open accounts in multiple exchanges and sell in all of them. Sure, bringing down one exchange could have consequences for price, but it wouldn't cover this large of an amount of BTC. Plus, half the exchanges with enough liquidity to even begin with, aren't even allowed to be used in the US. Again, that's not how the US govt works with these things anyway (OTC auctions), so it is all a moot point.
- rideontime 4y ago
  Ok, so someone buys the bitcoin at auction for pennies on the dollar, turns around and undercuts every other seller out there.
  - latchkey 4y ago
    It is an auction, it won't be pennies on the dollar. The last person who got that good of a deal was Tim Draper in 2014, which was a brilliant play and even then, I doubt he's sold it all. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/19/what-the-us-government-does-with-its-secret-bitcoin-stockpile.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/19/what-the-us-government-does-...
- three_seagrass 4y ago
  There absolutely are HFTs running off arbitrage on the major exchanges, so you wouldn't need to hit many, just a couple major ones. We are talking about theoretically crashing the market, not an auction, and illiquidity won't protect it.

lern_too_spel 4y ago

OK, fine. The person who buys these Bitcoins at auction could cause BTC to crash on all the exchanges.

latchkey 4y ago
Why would someone spend a bunch of money to buy bitcoin and then crash the price? Is that like the ultimate tax loss write-off? ;-)
- lern_too_spel 4y ago
  Who says they have to spend a bunch of money? The amount of money anybody would pay for it is the amount they could get from selling it, which is limited by liquidity. Add the fun they would get from crashing the market, and that is fair market value that these Bitcoins can get at auction.
- kristianp 4y ago
  They could buy futures at a lower price before crashing the markets.