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> I never saw it presented in clear what the actual consequences of global warming are or how us cutting oil today would prevent a disaster. I'm a bit surprise

> I never saw it presented in clear what the actual consequences of global warming are or how us cutting oil today would prevent a disaster. I'm a bit surprised by this. I've always considered that today's world is so inundated with information about global warming, a lot of people will have a fair idea of its predicted consequences. On the other hand, this sort of phrasing you have here, "guide me to the right path...", "When and how?", "what the consequences will be and when" etc betray a need for absolute and complete understanding of complex natural and social phenomena that, IMO, does not exist out there. So I'll advice that you don't look for certain answers. You should instead grasp the fundamentals and reason out how they will affect us. Either way, I'll give it a shot: 1. Our global civilization is a very complex system that requires millions of well-coordinated activities and optimal conditions to work. 2. Climate is such a fundamental factor in all of this, so if it changes too quickly before we can adapt, a lot of things that make #1 true will cause a lot of problems. (Case in point: Putin's war in Ukraine has doubled the price of bread in Ghana, West Africa, inconveniencing thousands of people who could not point Ukraine on a map. Now what will happen if a change in climate causes massive wheat failures in not only Ukraine, but other wheat producing countries? You tell me!) 3. There's also the fact that, AFAIK, oil and gas are finite resources, and someday they will run out. Longtermist thinking tells us to not get too hooked on these. We need to keep finding good alternatives to help us sustain what we have in #1 for much longer. This sort of concern drives everything from more efficient use of oil and gas, electric cars and nuclear power to planetary colonisation.

superchroma 4y ago
If the climate changes too quickly before nature can adapt, we can kiss a lot of the animals and plants we like goodbye as well. And then we can kiss a lot of ourselves goodbye as well. Some people handwave and say things will adapt, but then they also reflexively underestimate the complexity of vast systems, and generally, are not to be trusted. Climate aside, the ocean is also full of plastic. There's microplastics in every sacred, hidden place on this planet now. That was also a gargantuan own-goal and we should definitely eliminate the vast majority of disposable plastics from consumer and industrial applications.
helij 4y ago
I actually think that Putin's war in Ukraine is just a scapegoat. Price increases started mid year 2021. War certainly didn't help though. Have to admit that I am even more confused now after your answer. It's another one of those that I consider too broad and philosophical for me to understand. I absolutely agree that we need to find a solution and optimise for more efficient use of finite resources. We had warm water from solar cells in 1980's and I am pro nuclear energy and optimistic about the future. I think I grasp the fundamentals but I still can't visualise what will actually happen if we continue as is. That's the path I am searching. Some missing piece of information that will make my brain 'click'. Maybe I already know but just can't accept it yet.
- wsgeorge 4y ago
  > I actually think that Putin's war in Ukraine is just a scapegoat. Price increases started mid year 2021. War certainly didn't help though. I actually agree with this. The only reason I brought it up as an example is that I had no idea Russia and Ukraine were such significant exporters of wheat, so that had a direct connection to the cost of breakfast in my country. Truth is, the twin pressures of COVID-19 and this war is causing a lot of inconvenience. That, and other factors I'm not aware of. > It's another one of those that I consider too broad and philosophical for me to understand. I guess the simplest way I could put it is this: a disruption in the supply of wheat from two countries has caused the cost of breakfast to almost double in mine. Relating it to climate change: if a small rise in temperature causes crops to fail (because they cannot survive in such temperatures), food will become expensive everywhere. What happens when many people cannot afford to buy food? They riot. If you're American, you might remember the chaos of the George Floyd protests. That kind of instability is not good. No one wants it. What I feel I need to add is the obvious: burning fossil fuels is not the only way climate can change. It also happens naturally, and other natural forces like volcanic eruptions or comet strikes can destabilize a region's climate. So we burning fossil fuels is not the only thing we should care about. Sustainability thinking must go beyond that. The only other thing I can say is this: too much change too quickly has a lot of negatives we want to avoid. Uncertainty is expensive. Climate change causes a lot of things to change too quickly for comfort, and no one wants that. Most conversations around climate change come down to that fact.
- 4y ago

superchroma 4y ago

If the climate changes too quickly before nature can adapt, we can kiss a lot of the animals and plants we like goodbye as well. And then we can kiss a lot of ourselves goodbye as well. Some people handwave and say things will adapt, but then they also reflexively underestimate the complexity of vast systems, and generally, are not to be trusted. Climate aside, the ocean is also full of plastic. There's microplastics in every sacred, hidden place on this planet now. That was also a gargantuan own-goal and we should definitely eliminate the vast majority of disposable plastics from consumer and industrial applications.

helij 4y ago

I actually think that Putin's war in Ukraine is just a scapegoat. Price increases started mid year 2021. War certainly didn't help though. Have to admit that I am even more confused now after your answer. It's another one of those that I consider too broad and philosophical for me to understand. I absolutely agree that we need to find a solution and optimise for more efficient use of finite resources. We had warm water from solar cells in 1980's and I am pro nuclear energy and optimistic about the future. I think I grasp the fundamentals but I still can't visualise what will actually happen if we continue as is. That's the path I am searching. Some missing piece of information that will make my brain 'click'. Maybe I already know but just can't accept it yet.

wsgeorge 4y ago
> I actually think that Putin's war in Ukraine is just a scapegoat. Price increases started mid year 2021. War certainly didn't help though. I actually agree with this. The only reason I brought it up as an example is that I had no idea Russia and Ukraine were such significant exporters of wheat, so that had a direct connection to the cost of breakfast in my country. Truth is, the twin pressures of COVID-19 and this war is causing a lot of inconvenience. That, and other factors I'm not aware of. > It's another one of those that I consider too broad and philosophical for me to understand. I guess the simplest way I could put it is this: a disruption in the supply of wheat from two countries has caused the cost of breakfast to almost double in mine. Relating it to climate change: if a small rise in temperature causes crops to fail (because they cannot survive in such temperatures), food will become expensive everywhere. What happens when many people cannot afford to buy food? They riot. If you're American, you might remember the chaos of the George Floyd protests. That kind of instability is not good. No one wants it. What I feel I need to add is the obvious: burning fossil fuels is not the only way climate can change. It also happens naturally, and other natural forces like volcanic eruptions or comet strikes can destabilize a region's climate. So we burning fossil fuels is not the only thing we should care about. Sustainability thinking must go beyond that. The only other thing I can say is this: too much change too quickly has a lot of negatives we want to avoid. Uncertainty is expensive. Climate change causes a lot of things to change too quickly for comfort, and no one wants that. Most conversations around climate change come down to that fact.
4y ago