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Why is it crazy? It’s not endemic in China, and even if everybody in China were fully vaccinated, getting to endemic state would result in millions dead. Covid

Why is it crazy? It’s not endemic in China, and even if everybody in China were fully vaccinated, getting to endemic state would result in millions dead. Covid is still dangerous in aggregate, even with a vaccine. There’s 1.4 billion people in China; even a tiny fraction of them dying of Covid would be a huge death toll. And that’s not counting the permanent disabilities resulting from long Covid. What’s crazy is this idea that just because the rest of the world has given up on stopping Covid, that China should just let it rip. That would be devastating to China, why would they do that? Even if you don’t care about the death and disability, it doesn’t make economic sense. Temporary targeted lockdowns are less damaging to the Chinese economy in both the short and long term than rampant death and disability.

xvector 4y ago
> That would be devastating to China, why would they do that? To let people get on with life. The people of the world overwhelmingly voted to get back to life even though COVID hasn't gone away. China's people want to do the same, but Xi doesn't care, that's the only reason this policy still exists. It comes down to not giving a shit about what your citizens want.
- JimDabell 4y ago
  > To let people get on with life. But people in China are getting on with life. Lockdowns are the exception, not the rule. You’re also ignoring the millions of people that would die or become disabled. That’s not “getting on with life”, that’s the opposite. > The people of the world overwhelmingly voted to get back to life even though COVID hasn't gone away. No they didn’t. Those were decisions governments made, there was no vote. They were also decisions made after Covid became endemic in those countries. The consequences for China to let it rip when hardly anybody in China has had Covid are entirely different to the consequences for other countries to let it rip when it’s already endemic. China isn’t in that position so why would they make decisions as if they were when the consequences are so different? > China's people want to do the same How have you determined that?
concordDance 4y ago
Note that not all deaths are equal economically. The vast majority will be bedridden people on their last legs being pushed over the edge due to covid. These people have a negative impact on the economy.
- JimDabell 4y ago
  > The vast majority will be bedridden people on their last legs Do you have a citation for that? There’s a big jump in mortality at age 50+, but that’s not the same thing as “the vast majority are bedridden people on their last legs”. Also, death is only part of the problem. Long Covid affects people of all ages. A typical twenty-something factory worker might not die of Covid, but that doesn’t mean long Covid can’t make them economically inactive.
  - FabHK 4y ago
    Once you have the population vaccinated [1], you either make the measures permanent, or you drop them. I don't think a state of affairs is sustainable in which travel is severely restricted, borders are closed, and anytime a case flares up somewhere, the city shuts down for two weeks. So what's the criterion for an exit from Zero COVID? [1] and China is at around 90% vaccination. They might not be good vaccinations, though. But assume, for the sake of the argument, it had the population vaccinated as well as possible.
  - concordDance 4y ago
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsfromcovid19byageband https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/fre... Majority are 80+ and will disproportionately by the more sickly of those. Don't have good enough data on long covid to discuss it.
- hnfong 4y ago
  You might be right, but, the perspective you're describing basically advocates disregarding the lives of those at risk of a COVID death in favor of making more money. How much does a life cost? In the rest of the world that basically failed to contain the virus, it wasn't a question to begin with, since lockdowns didn't really work. China was somewhat successful in its lockdowns because it had ways to enforce the admittedly draconian measures -- so, how much does a life cost?
KVFinn 4y ago
It only makes sense if they have overloaded medical systems or they expect outcomes to improve. Maybe they are waiting for their Chinese developed MRNA vaccine or better access to Paxlovid?

xvector 4y ago

> That would be devastating to China, why would they do that? To let people get on with life. The people of the world overwhelmingly voted to get back to life even though COVID hasn't gone away. China's people want to do the same, but Xi doesn't care, that's the only reason this policy still exists. It comes down to not giving a shit about what your citizens want.

JimDabell 4y ago
> To let people get on with life. But people in China are getting on with life. Lockdowns are the exception, not the rule. You’re also ignoring the millions of people that would die or become disabled. That’s not “getting on with life”, that’s the opposite. > The people of the world overwhelmingly voted to get back to life even though COVID hasn't gone away. No they didn’t. Those were decisions governments made, there was no vote. They were also decisions made after Covid became endemic in those countries. The consequences for China to let it rip when hardly anybody in China has had Covid are entirely different to the consequences for other countries to let it rip when it’s already endemic. China isn’t in that position so why would they make decisions as if they were when the consequences are so different? > China's people want to do the same How have you determined that?

concordDance 4y ago

Note that not all deaths are equal economically. The vast majority will be bedridden people on their last legs being pushed over the edge due to covid. These people have a negative impact on the economy.

JimDabell 4y ago
> The vast majority will be bedridden people on their last legs Do you have a citation for that? There’s a big jump in mortality at age 50+, but that’s not the same thing as “the vast majority are bedridden people on their last legs”. Also, death is only part of the problem. Long Covid affects people of all ages. A typical twenty-something factory worker might not die of Covid, but that doesn’t mean long Covid can’t make them economically inactive.
- FabHK 4y ago
  Once you have the population vaccinated [1], you either make the measures permanent, or you drop them. I don't think a state of affairs is sustainable in which travel is severely restricted, borders are closed, and anytime a case flares up somewhere, the city shuts down for two weeks. So what's the criterion for an exit from Zero COVID? [1] and China is at around 90% vaccination. They might not be good vaccinations, though. But assume, for the sake of the argument, it had the population vaccinated as well as possible.
- concordDance 4y ago
  https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsfromcovid19byageband https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/fre... Majority are 80+ and will disproportionately by the more sickly of those. Don't have good enough data on long covid to discuss it.
hnfong 4y ago
You might be right, but, the perspective you're describing basically advocates disregarding the lives of those at risk of a COVID death in favor of making more money. How much does a life cost? In the rest of the world that basically failed to contain the virus, it wasn't a question to begin with, since lockdowns didn't really work. China was somewhat successful in its lockdowns because it had ways to enforce the admittedly draconian measures -- so, how much does a life cost?

KVFinn 4y ago

It only makes sense if they have overloaded medical systems or they expect outcomes to improve. Maybe they are waiting for their Chinese developed MRNA vaccine or better access to Paxlovid?