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I think likely, but depends on how things escalate, if shooting war commercial aviation will stop anyways. There might be grayzone shenanigans like chaffing ELI

I think likely, but depends on how things escalate, if shooting war commercial aviation will stop anyways. There might be grayzone shenanigans like chaffing ELINT planes trying to support TW. Basically all the perks UKR has access to, PRC will attempt deny to TW. Ideally for PRC before it goes hot, PRC will try to assert control over TW civil aviation, prevent flights from landing or redirect flights to PRC first to process. No person/thing is going in and out TW without PRC supervision, including foreign or TW nationals PRC wants to hold for leverage. IMO above is significant but not discussed topic, there are 750k and growing foreign nationals on TW that PRC has leverage over if things turn ugly. 750k "illegally" working on TW without PRC consent, some directly with the ROC government to undermine PRC interests (technically spies). PRC making air space too dangerous = only viable exfiltration is evacuation across maritime routes, one determined by PRC via changing what is / is not accessible with mines. There's going to be international pressure to setup evacuation routes which gives PRC an "in" onto the island, We're talking about thousands of ships moving 750k bodies... the way to TW filled with PLA, the way back filled with civilians, the entire strait satuated with civilian activity that makes targetting an embedded invasion fleet and other outside interventions difficult, i.e. is JP going to restrict US access to basing if means 20k JP nationals get last pick on evacuation priority.

Apocryphon 4y ago
Just imagining the U.S. trying to send supply planes as a Berlin airlift 2. Also Elon Musk making empty social media boasts to send humanitarian aid via SpaceX suborbital rocket deliveries. As with the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Black Sea blockade boats, would be interesting to see how TW and external forces try to workaround a blockade. > 750k "illegally" working on TW without PRC consent, some directly with the ROC government to undermine PRC interests (technically spies). This doesn't make any sense. If they are collaborating with the ROC government, why would they want to be sent back to the mainland? Are you saying the PRC would demand them back as spies? Strange sticking point to bring up during a blockade, which is tantamount to wartime. Feels like there would be bigger fish to fry at that point. Repatriating 750k people would be a bureaucratic paperwork nightmare, let alone a logistical one, and it is not a feat that either government would take seriously. At most the PRC would demand it and the ROC might humor them as an attempted concession/negotiating move but no way would they attempt to send hundreds of thousands of people in a single year, let alone at once.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  It's a consideration for: > things turn ugly PRC's leverage start after shooting starts (like TSMC), when PRC closes air and maritime space and specifies repatriation corridors will stop first on mainland for processing. International community sees all the cratered TW runways and entire TW coast except some West locations are saturated with mines and conclude, there's no other choice - can't airlift or merchant fleet into what's not accessbile. The process will be an abbreviated shitshow done as quickly as possible (Dunkirk style) because foreign nationals are already trapped in a warzone (like in openning of UKR war). Countries take repatrioting thier citizens seriously, and since PRC has ultimate veto over entry/egress to island, they have leverage, especially if there is a timer ticking down to when the island will run out of water and food. No one wants their nationals trapped and dying on hunger game island. Unless TW starts holding foreign nationals hostage, they maybe compelled by international pressure to agree to PRC coordinated evacuation points, which may include beach heads under PRC occupation (or relunctantly surrendered to PLA), where every ship that arrives to pickup evacuees is going be loaded with PLA. It's an undertaking that will require thousands of ships over weeks of intensive activity that will make the strait not engagable to defenders or outside meddlers due to intermiggling of civilian and military activies. Imagine fallout if a TW / US missile sinks a boat full of Philippinos (or imagine if PRC engineers false flag of that). Maybe international community can also convince PRC not to do this, but what incentive is there for PRC to listen? The one's that will sanction will sanction anyways and get last dibs and buy PRC some time, the ones who cooperate will get priority. Of course all speculation, but there are many exploitable dynamics inherent in TW being an island with unrecognized sovereignty.
  - Apocryphon 4y ago
    > can't airlift or merchant fleet into what's not accessbile Couldn't the U.S. planes drop aid packages, as in other conflicts? > Countries take repatrioting thier citizens seriously, and since PRC has ultimate veto over entry/egress to island, they have leverage, especially if there is a timer ticking down to when the island will run out of water and food. Are you talking about foreign nationals unrelated to China and Taiwan? Your prior post makes it sound like there were 750k Chinese nationals working for the ROC. One would that expect that even in the event of a blockade, the PRC would give them ample time prior to evacuate the island beforehand. Or otherwise, risk an extremely delicate diplomatic situations with dozens upon dozens of nations. > Imagine fallout if a TW / US missile sinks a boat full of Philippinos (or imagine if PRC engineers false flag of that). Any such fallout would fall upon the PRC as well, as it would be seen that they started the blockade and created the situation in the first place. Actually, that raises an interesting point as well- how would TW attempts at fighting back at the blockade with force be received by the PRC? What if that missile strike sinks an actual PLAN vessel? Would that be seen as a casualty of war, or a dangerous escalation? What would the retaliation be? > Maybe international community can also convince PRC not to do this, but what incentive is there for PRC to listen? Undoing everything that past decades of soft power diplomacy has achieved?

Apocryphon 4y ago

Just imagining the U.S. trying to send supply planes as a Berlin airlift 2. Also Elon Musk making empty social media boasts to send humanitarian aid via SpaceX suborbital rocket deliveries. As with the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Black Sea blockade boats, would be interesting to see how TW and external forces try to workaround a blockade. > 750k "illegally" working on TW without PRC consent, some directly with the ROC government to undermine PRC interests (technically spies). This doesn't make any sense. If they are collaborating with the ROC government, why would they want to be sent back to the mainland? Are you saying the PRC would demand them back as spies? Strange sticking point to bring up during a blockade, which is tantamount to wartime. Feels like there would be bigger fish to fry at that point. Repatriating 750k people would be a bureaucratic paperwork nightmare, let alone a logistical one, and it is not a feat that either government would take seriously. At most the PRC would demand it and the ROC might humor them as an attempted concession/negotiating move but no way would they attempt to send hundreds of thousands of people in a single year, let alone at once.

dirtyid 4y ago
It's a consideration for: > things turn ugly PRC's leverage start after shooting starts (like TSMC), when PRC closes air and maritime space and specifies repatriation corridors will stop first on mainland for processing. International community sees all the cratered TW runways and entire TW coast except some West locations are saturated with mines and conclude, there's no other choice - can't airlift or merchant fleet into what's not accessbile. The process will be an abbreviated shitshow done as quickly as possible (Dunkirk style) because foreign nationals are already trapped in a warzone (like in openning of UKR war). Countries take repatrioting thier citizens seriously, and since PRC has ultimate veto over entry/egress to island, they have leverage, especially if there is a timer ticking down to when the island will run out of water and food. No one wants their nationals trapped and dying on hunger game island. Unless TW starts holding foreign nationals hostage, they maybe compelled by international pressure to agree to PRC coordinated evacuation points, which may include beach heads under PRC occupation (or relunctantly surrendered to PLA), where every ship that arrives to pickup evacuees is going be loaded with PLA. It's an undertaking that will require thousands of ships over weeks of intensive activity that will make the strait not engagable to defenders or outside meddlers due to intermiggling of civilian and military activies. Imagine fallout if a TW / US missile sinks a boat full of Philippinos (or imagine if PRC engineers false flag of that). Maybe international community can also convince PRC not to do this, but what incentive is there for PRC to listen? The one's that will sanction will sanction anyways and get last dibs and buy PRC some time, the ones who cooperate will get priority. Of course all speculation, but there are many exploitable dynamics inherent in TW being an island with unrecognized sovereignty.
- Apocryphon 4y ago
  > can't airlift or merchant fleet into what's not accessbile Couldn't the U.S. planes drop aid packages, as in other conflicts? > Countries take repatrioting thier citizens seriously, and since PRC has ultimate veto over entry/egress to island, they have leverage, especially if there is a timer ticking down to when the island will run out of water and food. Are you talking about foreign nationals unrelated to China and Taiwan? Your prior post makes it sound like there were 750k Chinese nationals working for the ROC. One would that expect that even in the event of a blockade, the PRC would give them ample time prior to evacuate the island beforehand. Or otherwise, risk an extremely delicate diplomatic situations with dozens upon dozens of nations. > Imagine fallout if a TW / US missile sinks a boat full of Philippinos (or imagine if PRC engineers false flag of that). Any such fallout would fall upon the PRC as well, as it would be seen that they started the blockade and created the situation in the first place. Actually, that raises an interesting point as well- how would TW attempts at fighting back at the blockade with force be received by the PRC? What if that missile strike sinks an actual PLAN vessel? Would that be seen as a casualty of war, or a dangerous escalation? What would the retaliation be? > Maybe international community can also convince PRC not to do this, but what incentive is there for PRC to listen? Undoing everything that past decades of soft power diplomacy has achieved?