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Weapons procurement is a very difficult problem for the world's dominant power. If it does the job right (and so far the US has done it), then it prevents wars
by credit_guy 4y ago
Weapons procurement is a very difficult problem for the world's dominant power. If it does the job right (and so far the US has done it), then it prevents wars (Iraq and Afghanistan notwithstanding). And if it does not fight wars, the weapons don't get used, and the population gets the impression the spending was for nothing. In a democracy you get a lot of pressure to reduce this spending.
So the US has to procure just few enough Tomahawks to make sure the factories that can make them retain some semblance of manufacturing ability just in case. If you check the DoD budget, you'll see that every year we procure fewer Tomahawks for about the same money (which is a lot). That's because we don't pay for the missiles themselves, but for the ability to ramp up their production if the time comes to do that.
But then, how do you get healthy competition to drive down prices? Let's say you want to found a startup to make cruise missiles? Who are you going to sell to? The US is only buying about 100 per year, and thinking hard each year how to cut that number down. You can offer to sell the same 100 for 10 times less money, but they don't care about the missiles themselves. If they switch from their current supplier (Raytheon) to you, then Raytheon will shut down the plant (maybe plants?) that makes them. Can the US trust you that you can ramp up the production when the time comes? Maybe you can prove you can, but that does not happen that often. So we are stuck with whatever manufacturers we have, it's difficult to get new entrants.
What can be done? I don't know. What is China doing better? I don't know that either.
All I can see is the problem is not that easy.
- bdavis__ 4y agoThe USG / DOD is a terrible customer. They want to control every thing; from suppliers to acceptance. They really don't care about what something costs, it is far more important to ensure the vendors are not making too much profit. To move fast, you have to be willing to break things. When you go "agile" in software, you write a lot of crap that has to be thrown away. Same with weapons development, if you want to go fast and try ideas then some of them will not work. Will Not Work. That is intolerable to the procurement organization, because spending money on something that does not work is also known as "corruption". Risk / Reward has to be changed by society. A war will do that.
- gloryjulio 4y agoChina is a dictatorship war machine. They don't have to go through all these process. They just do. That's why we need to properly to recognize them as a threat at all levels or Taiwan is a goner
- panick21_ 4y agoNonsense. China has many of the exact same problems. Being a dictatorship doesnt actually change most of what he said.
- SQueeeeeL 4y agoDon't you know that Communists are actually magic and can just wave their wands and make technologically advanced war planes appear from mud? We gotta make sure to increase our military budget next year to combat these wizards!
- gloryjulio 4y agoNot sure if u r intentionally or unintentionally conflating different things. Throughput and efficiency are different things. I am not saying China is more efficient, I am saying they can achieve great throughput(might be better in US in this regard, but I am talking in general) because they are strictly top down. We have a great example right now. Don't you see they are still in lock down right now? What does it mean? It just means China gov have great power in doing 'things'. I am not saying China is better. I am not saying China is more efficient. I am not saying China is gonna exceed. I'm only stating the process about how China operates. Please stick to the topic if you really want to discuss about China's process. If you are China's shill u can ignore my posts.
- DiogenesKynikos 4y ago> Don't you see they are still in lock down right now? China as a whole is not in lockdown, and has never been since early 2020. Particular neighborhoods or cities with particularly large (by Chinese standards, meaning tiny by outside standards) outbreaks are in lockdown. The vast majority of China is not under lockdown. This is something which is very poorly understood outside China, partly because of sensationalist coverage in Western media. It's also partly because most people in the West don't speak Chinese and are generally unfamiliar with the country, and thus have very weak nonsense detection filters when it comes to news about China. That's why complete nonsense like the "social credit score" myth continues to circulate widely in the Western discourse about China.
- lm28469 4y ago> If it does the job right (and so far the US has done it), then it prevents wars (Iraq and Afghanistan notwithstanding) The US has been at war for like 90% of its history
- naniwaduni 4y agoBy similar standards, the French Fifth Republic has been at war for ~98% of its history.