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> What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. … > And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their ow

> What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. … > And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. You make a lot of confident assumptions here which you cannot know for sure.

Apocryphon 4y ago
On the flip side for the second point, it can just as easily go into the reverse. It’s all very well for the mainland government to declare the island to be a rogue province in revolt, but that just means a war between the two would entail bloodshed between countrymen. That might give at least some Chinese pause, not unlike the contemporary antiwar protests in Russia. Not to mention given that China has been at peace for decades now, to disrupt their economic growth and prosperous gains in standards of living to go to war would be a hard sell to the average Chinese citizen, regardless of how much control the government might exert over drumming up support for war. One could speculate that they would at least make it seem like a defensive conflict.
- UltraViolence 4y ago
  You seem to forget that ordinary Chinese citizens have no say in all this. They've just given their leader dictatorial powers for life. Basically everything that happens in China is dependent on the mental constitution of one single man. And Xi has sworn to unite Taiwan with the mainland at whatever the cost. We have to decide whether it's worth fighting a nuclear war over because the invasion is going to happen between now and 2027.
  - Apocryphon 4y ago
    Any war will require at least some popular mandate no matter how dictatorial the regime, not to mention the consent of the actual fighting forces involved. > And Xi has sworn to unite Taiwan with the mainland at whatever the cost. In that, he is no different from every single Chinese leader since 1949. 2027 is a red herring borne out of inaccurate intel and failed understanding: https://twitter.com/MikeBlack114/status/1571401031539367939 https://twitter.com/MikeBlack114/status/1571401031539367939
UltraViolence 4y ago
Biden knows what I know: that it's too costly for the U.S. to disengage economically from China. He's trying to do something about it at least, but Apple has already signaled that only 25% of iPhones will be made outside of China by 2025. That will leave the company completely vulnerable if were to be cut-off from its Chinese suppliers. I predict the company will simply go bankrupt if that were to happen. So he's bluffing to prevent China from invading, that's only logical. If push comes to shove, however, he'll pull back from the brink. Taiwan simply isn't worth fighting over, even if it would mean losing influence in Asia. And I've become convinced the Taiwanese will not fight their own kind, no matter how much they hate the Communists.
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago
  > Apple has already signaled that only 25% of iPhones will be made outside of China by 2025. That will leave the company completely vulnerable if were to be cut-off from its Chinese suppliers. I predict the company will simply go bankrupt if that were to happen. That's the second time you've made that claim, and it's just as implausible as it was the first time. Companies go bankrupt because of debt. Apple has approximately zero debt, and approximately one gazillion dollars of assets. Losing China's manufacturing would cripple Apple's income. Bankrupt them? No, that's not a logically plausible outcome. > And I've become convinced the Taiwanese will not fight their own kind, no matter how much they hate the Communists. That's the second time you've made that claim, too, with no more supporting evidence than you gave the first time. You're convinced? Great, it's good for you to know your own mind. But the rest of us care whether your claim corresponds to reality, and how convinced you are is not supporting data. Putin has claimed all along that Ukrainians were "their own kind", but the Ukrainians didn't see it that way...
  - UltraViolence 4y ago
    Apple would lose its ability to produce and sell products if a complete boycott of China were to ensue. This would mean Apple's revenue and income would shrivel to almost zero overnight. Its stock valuation would drop 99% or more. There's no company that could survive such a financial shock. Yes, they have some money in the bank, but that won't save them.

Apocryphon 4y ago

On the flip side for the second point, it can just as easily go into the reverse. It’s all very well for the mainland government to declare the island to be a rogue province in revolt, but that just means a war between the two would entail bloodshed between countrymen. That might give at least some Chinese pause, not unlike the contemporary antiwar protests in Russia. Not to mention given that China has been at peace for decades now, to disrupt their economic growth and prosperous gains in standards of living to go to war would be a hard sell to the average Chinese citizen, regardless of how much control the government might exert over drumming up support for war. One could speculate that they would at least make it seem like a defensive conflict.

UltraViolence 4y ago
You seem to forget that ordinary Chinese citizens have no say in all this. They've just given their leader dictatorial powers for life. Basically everything that happens in China is dependent on the mental constitution of one single man. And Xi has sworn to unite Taiwan with the mainland at whatever the cost. We have to decide whether it's worth fighting a nuclear war over because the invasion is going to happen between now and 2027.
- Apocryphon 4y ago
  Any war will require at least some popular mandate no matter how dictatorial the regime, not to mention the consent of the actual fighting forces involved. > And Xi has sworn to unite Taiwan with the mainland at whatever the cost. In that, he is no different from every single Chinese leader since 1949. 2027 is a red herring borne out of inaccurate intel and failed understanding: https://twitter.com/MikeBlack114/status/1571401031539367939 https://twitter.com/MikeBlack114/status/1571401031539367939

UltraViolence 4y ago

Biden knows what I know: that it's too costly for the U.S. to disengage economically from China. He's trying to do something about it at least, but Apple has already signaled that only 25% of iPhones will be made outside of China by 2025. That will leave the company completely vulnerable if were to be cut-off from its Chinese suppliers. I predict the company will simply go bankrupt if that were to happen. So he's bluffing to prevent China from invading, that's only logical. If push comes to shove, however, he'll pull back from the brink. Taiwan simply isn't worth fighting over, even if it would mean losing influence in Asia. And I've become convinced the Taiwanese will not fight their own kind, no matter how much they hate the Communists.

AnimalMuppet 4y ago
> Apple has already signaled that only 25% of iPhones will be made outside of China by 2025. That will leave the company completely vulnerable if were to be cut-off from its Chinese suppliers. I predict the company will simply go bankrupt if that were to happen. That's the second time you've made that claim, and it's just as implausible as it was the first time. Companies go bankrupt because of debt. Apple has approximately zero debt, and approximately one gazillion dollars of assets. Losing China's manufacturing would cripple Apple's income. Bankrupt them? No, that's not a logically plausible outcome. > And I've become convinced the Taiwanese will not fight their own kind, no matter how much they hate the Communists. That's the second time you've made that claim, too, with no more supporting evidence than you gave the first time. You're convinced? Great, it's good for you to know your own mind. But the rest of us care whether your claim corresponds to reality, and how convinced you are is not supporting data. Putin has claimed all along that Ukrainians were "their own kind", but the Ukrainians didn't see it that way...
- UltraViolence 4y ago
  Apple would lose its ability to produce and sell products if a complete boycott of China were to ensue. This would mean Apple's revenue and income would shrivel to almost zero overnight. Its stock valuation would drop 99% or more. There's no company that could survive such a financial shock. Yes, they have some money in the bank, but that won't save them.