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Your analysis is flawed. The U.S. will not risk a nuclear war over an island it doesn't even recognize as an independent state and has no security treaties with

Your analysis is flawed. The U.S. will not risk a nuclear war over an island it doesn't even recognize as an independent state and has no security treaties with. What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. Sure, they want to remain independent if they can, but if China decides to invade their armed forces will simply throw away their arms and go home. Do we want our soldiers to lose their lives for a people that hasn't even demonstrated their will to fight for their independence? Fuck that! China is attempting to put its tentacles everywhere, making it extremely costly for Western nations to completely decouple from China economically. For example: Apple is so deep in bed with China that if an invasion were to occur the company would simply go bankrupt. Bankrupt! We're talking about a company with a market valuation of almost $2 trillion!! It would be very hard for the Biden Administration to make that choice. And that's just one U.S. company. There are probably dozens like them in the same boat. From what I gather Volkswagen would face an existential threat if it were banned from selling its cars in China. No way, the Germans would allow that, no matter what the U.S. says. No, there will not be a nuclear war over Taiwan. Merely a few pinpricks in terms of sanctions.

CogitoCogito 4y ago
> What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. … > And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. You make a lot of confident assumptions here which you cannot know for sure.
- Apocryphon 4y ago
  On the flip side for the second point, it can just as easily go into the reverse. It’s all very well for the mainland government to declare the island to be a rogue province in revolt, but that just means a war between the two would entail bloodshed between countrymen. That might give at least some Chinese pause, not unlike the contemporary antiwar protests in Russia. Not to mention given that China has been at peace for decades now, to disrupt their economic growth and prosperous gains in standards of living to go to war would be a hard sell to the average Chinese citizen, regardless of how much control the government might exert over drumming up support for war. One could speculate that they would at least make it seem like a defensive conflict.
  - UltraViolence 4y ago
    You seem to forget that ordinary Chinese citizens have no say in all this. They've just given their leader dictatorial powers for life. Basically everything that happens in China is dependent on the mental constitution of one single man. And Xi has sworn to unite Taiwan with the mainland at whatever the cost. We have to decide whether it's worth fighting a nuclear war over because the invasion is going to happen between now and 2027.
    - Apocryphon 4y ago
      Any war will require at least some popular mandate no matter how dictatorial the regime, not to mention the consent of the actual fighting forces involved. > And Xi has sworn to unite Taiwan with the mainland at whatever the cost. In that, he is no different from every single Chinese leader since 1949. 2027 is a red herring borne out of inaccurate intel and failed understanding: https://twitter.com/MikeBlack114/status/1571401031539367939 https://twitter.com/MikeBlack114/status/1571401031539367939
- UltraViolence 4y ago
  Biden knows what I know: that it's too costly for the U.S. to disengage economically from China. He's trying to do something about it at least, but Apple has already signaled that only 25% of iPhones will be made outside of China by 2025. That will leave the company completely vulnerable if were to be cut-off from its Chinese suppliers. I predict the company will simply go bankrupt if that were to happen. So he's bluffing to prevent China from invading, that's only logical. If push comes to shove, however, he'll pull back from the brink. Taiwan simply isn't worth fighting over, even if it would mean losing influence in Asia. And I've become convinced the Taiwanese will not fight their own kind, no matter how much they hate the Communists.
  - AnimalMuppet 4y ago
    > Apple has already signaled that only 25% of iPhones will be made outside of China by 2025. That will leave the company completely vulnerable if were to be cut-off from its Chinese suppliers. I predict the company will simply go bankrupt if that were to happen. That's the second time you've made that claim, and it's just as implausible as it was the first time. Companies go bankrupt because of debt. Apple has approximately zero debt, and approximately one gazillion dollars of assets. Losing China's manufacturing would cripple Apple's income. Bankrupt them? No, that's not a logically plausible outcome. > And I've become convinced the Taiwanese will not fight their own kind, no matter how much they hate the Communists. That's the second time you've made that claim, too, with no more supporting evidence than you gave the first time. You're convinced? Great, it's good for you to know your own mind. But the rest of us care whether your claim corresponds to reality, and how convinced you are is not supporting data. Putin has claimed all along that Ukrainians were "their own kind", but the Ukrainians didn't see it that way...
    - UltraViolence 4y ago
      Apple would lose its ability to produce and sell products if a complete boycott of China were to ensue. This would mean Apple's revenue and income would shrivel to almost zero overnight. Its stock valuation would drop 99% or more. There's no company that could survive such a financial shock. Yes, they have some money in the bank, but that won't save them.
notaresearcher 4y ago
This is 100% your own opinion, and no one has said anything about 'nuclear' war. Of course no one wants to fight, if it came down to it, many, including me, would have to defend ourselves.
- user_named 4y ago
  That's just your opinion.
- UltraViolence 4y ago
  From what I've seen I've come to the conclusion the Taiwanese will not fight. You talk about defending yourself, but you can just keep still and do nothing. As I expect you will. A nuclear war is a certainty when there's a confrontation between nuclear armed powers. If we lose, we use nukes. If they lose, they'll use nukes. Ergo: it's inevitable there will be an all-out nuclear exchange.
  - bitxbitxbitcoin 4y ago
    Please tell us what exactly you have seen that makes you come to the conclusion that “the Taiwanese” will not fight? Were you referring to the Taiwanese people? The Taiwanese army? The Taiwanese government? The specific person that said they would defend themself? Do you also feel that a nuclear war is inevitable between Russia and the US because of what is happening currently in the Ukraine? Whether the US joins the fight is very much still up for debate. Whether “the Taiwanese” will fight - is probably better left for actual Taiwanese people to comment on.
    - UltraViolence 4y ago
      I've seen Taiwanese making petty preparations for an invasion, Taiwanese soldiers complaining about poor equipment, insufficient ammunition and poor leadership and Taiwanese citizens and politicians criticizing the U.S. instead of China. A nuclear war is not inevitable in Ukraine because the U.S. isn't a combatant. But I do believe this conflict could easily spiral out of control and lead to a nuclear confrontation between Russia and NATO. If the U.S. were to intervene in Taiwan it would mean a direct confrontation between two nuclear armed powers which, as I claimed before, will inevitably lead to an all-out nuclear exchange.
jonnybgood 4y ago
> What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. > And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. Sure, they want to remain independent if they can, but if China decides to invade their armed forces will simply throw away their arms and go home. Do we want our soldiers to lose their lives for a people that hasn't even demonstrated their will to fight for their independence? Fuck that! For the US, the war over Taiwan is not about Taiwan. It is essential to understand this. It is why the US will definitively go to war. If China takes Taiwan, US influence and interest in the entire region falls like dominoes. The threat to US hegemony is more important than the market value of a few companies.
- UltraViolence 4y ago
  And a nuclear war will not deprecate U.S. influence in Asia and worldwide? We would simply cease to exist as a nation with 80% of the populace dead, dying from wounds / radiation and starvation. Losing Taiwan may give us a bloody nose, but it's certainly not an existential threat.
noodle8080 4y ago
> it doesn't even recognize as an independent state and has no security treaties with. While this is the official stance, we all know that in practice, the US sees Taiwan as an independent country to not escalate the situation.

CogitoCogito 4y ago

> What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. … > And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. You make a lot of confident assumptions here which you cannot know for sure.

Apocryphon 4y ago
On the flip side for the second point, it can just as easily go into the reverse. It’s all very well for the mainland government to declare the island to be a rogue province in revolt, but that just means a war between the two would entail bloodshed between countrymen. That might give at least some Chinese pause, not unlike the contemporary antiwar protests in Russia. Not to mention given that China has been at peace for decades now, to disrupt their economic growth and prosperous gains in standards of living to go to war would be a hard sell to the average Chinese citizen, regardless of how much control the government might exert over drumming up support for war. One could speculate that they would at least make it seem like a defensive conflict.
- UltraViolence 4y ago
  You seem to forget that ordinary Chinese citizens have no say in all this. They've just given their leader dictatorial powers for life. Basically everything that happens in China is dependent on the mental constitution of one single man. And Xi has sworn to unite Taiwan with the mainland at whatever the cost. We have to decide whether it's worth fighting a nuclear war over because the invasion is going to happen between now and 2027.
  - Apocryphon 4y ago
    Any war will require at least some popular mandate no matter how dictatorial the regime, not to mention the consent of the actual fighting forces involved. > And Xi has sworn to unite Taiwan with the mainland at whatever the cost. In that, he is no different from every single Chinese leader since 1949. 2027 is a red herring borne out of inaccurate intel and failed understanding: https://twitter.com/MikeBlack114/status/1571401031539367939 https://twitter.com/MikeBlack114/status/1571401031539367939
UltraViolence 4y ago
Biden knows what I know: that it's too costly for the U.S. to disengage economically from China. He's trying to do something about it at least, but Apple has already signaled that only 25% of iPhones will be made outside of China by 2025. That will leave the company completely vulnerable if were to be cut-off from its Chinese suppliers. I predict the company will simply go bankrupt if that were to happen. So he's bluffing to prevent China from invading, that's only logical. If push comes to shove, however, he'll pull back from the brink. Taiwan simply isn't worth fighting over, even if it would mean losing influence in Asia. And I've become convinced the Taiwanese will not fight their own kind, no matter how much they hate the Communists.
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago
  > Apple has already signaled that only 25% of iPhones will be made outside of China by 2025. That will leave the company completely vulnerable if were to be cut-off from its Chinese suppliers. I predict the company will simply go bankrupt if that were to happen. That's the second time you've made that claim, and it's just as implausible as it was the first time. Companies go bankrupt because of debt. Apple has approximately zero debt, and approximately one gazillion dollars of assets. Losing China's manufacturing would cripple Apple's income. Bankrupt them? No, that's not a logically plausible outcome. > And I've become convinced the Taiwanese will not fight their own kind, no matter how much they hate the Communists. That's the second time you've made that claim, too, with no more supporting evidence than you gave the first time. You're convinced? Great, it's good for you to know your own mind. But the rest of us care whether your claim corresponds to reality, and how convinced you are is not supporting data. Putin has claimed all along that Ukrainians were "their own kind", but the Ukrainians didn't see it that way...
  - UltraViolence 4y ago
    Apple would lose its ability to produce and sell products if a complete boycott of China were to ensue. This would mean Apple's revenue and income would shrivel to almost zero overnight. Its stock valuation would drop 99% or more. There's no company that could survive such a financial shock. Yes, they have some money in the bank, but that won't save them.

notaresearcher 4y ago

This is 100% your own opinion, and no one has said anything about 'nuclear' war. Of course no one wants to fight, if it came down to it, many, including me, would have to defend ourselves.

user_named 4y ago
That's just your opinion.
UltraViolence 4y ago
From what I've seen I've come to the conclusion the Taiwanese will not fight. You talk about defending yourself, but you can just keep still and do nothing. As I expect you will. A nuclear war is a certainty when there's a confrontation between nuclear armed powers. If we lose, we use nukes. If they lose, they'll use nukes. Ergo: it's inevitable there will be an all-out nuclear exchange.
- bitxbitxbitcoin 4y ago
  Please tell us what exactly you have seen that makes you come to the conclusion that “the Taiwanese” will not fight? Were you referring to the Taiwanese people? The Taiwanese army? The Taiwanese government? The specific person that said they would defend themself? Do you also feel that a nuclear war is inevitable between Russia and the US because of what is happening currently in the Ukraine? Whether the US joins the fight is very much still up for debate. Whether “the Taiwanese” will fight - is probably better left for actual Taiwanese people to comment on.
  - UltraViolence 4y ago
    I've seen Taiwanese making petty preparations for an invasion, Taiwanese soldiers complaining about poor equipment, insufficient ammunition and poor leadership and Taiwanese citizens and politicians criticizing the U.S. instead of China. A nuclear war is not inevitable in Ukraine because the U.S. isn't a combatant. But I do believe this conflict could easily spiral out of control and lead to a nuclear confrontation between Russia and NATO. If the U.S. were to intervene in Taiwan it would mean a direct confrontation between two nuclear armed powers which, as I claimed before, will inevitably lead to an all-out nuclear exchange.

jonnybgood 4y ago

> What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. > And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. Sure, they want to remain independent if they can, but if China decides to invade their armed forces will simply throw away their arms and go home. Do we want our soldiers to lose their lives for a people that hasn't even demonstrated their will to fight for their independence? Fuck that! For the US, the war over Taiwan is not about Taiwan. It is essential to understand this. It is why the US will definitively go to war. If China takes Taiwan, US influence and interest in the entire region falls like dominoes. The threat to US hegemony is more important than the market value of a few companies.

UltraViolence 4y ago
And a nuclear war will not deprecate U.S. influence in Asia and worldwide? We would simply cease to exist as a nation with 80% of the populace dead, dying from wounds / radiation and starvation. Losing Taiwan may give us a bloody nose, but it's certainly not an existential threat.

noodle8080 4y ago

> it doesn't even recognize as an independent state and has no security treaties with. While this is the official stance, we all know that in practice, the US sees Taiwan as an independent country to not escalate the situation.