5 ms·

> guy who held a short position on TSLA through the entire rally TSLA is Wiley Coyote waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay over the ledge. "Investors" also created a ral

> guy who held a short position on TSLA through the entire rally TSLA is Wiley Coyote waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay over the ledge. "Investors" also created a rally for GME out of thin air.

leobg 4y ago
If you’re so confident, why don’t you short the stock? And if you don’t dare to short, then what value does your confidence have? I’m sure that Burry, too, still thinks he is right and the market is just being irrational longer than he can stay solvent. But that doesn’t change the outcome, which is that his bet went terribly wrong for him.
- WastingMyTime89 4y ago
  Well, I mean there is always the good old: “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” But there definitely is something strange with Tesla valuation. It’s above their 5 biggest competitors combined. Plus their multiples are way off compared to the other players in their market. It doesn’t look particularly sustainable to me.
  - leobg 4y ago
    I understand that people have different opinions about Tesla. That’s not only fine, that’s also important. I just find it really weird when people have been saying the same things since 2016 (frankly, for much longer), proven wrong time and time again, about demand, production and stock price, among other things, and still do not concede even the possibility that there just might be something that they have been overlooking.
    - WastingMyTime89 4y ago
      > still do not concede even the possibility that there just might be something that they have been overlooking. I will bite. What do you think make Tesla special compared to their competitors? They clearly had a first mover advantage on EV which served them well but now that all manufacturers have good electric cars on offer what justify Tesla valuation?
      - leobg 4y ago
        Ok. I can share my thoughts. I‘d prefer to do this privately, though. Contact info is in my profile.
- jterrys 4y ago
  I forget who exactly said this, and apologies if I am butchering the proverb, but: "If you're right but your timing is wrong. You might as well just be wrong."
- peteradio 4y ago
  Tesla PE ratio as of November 04, 2022 is 66.42. The current dividend yield for Tesla as of November 04, 2022 is 0.00%. Dow PE ratio as of November 04, 2022 is 5.88.
  - leobg 4y ago
    This argument has been made back in 2016 and before. Many people who looked beyond those two metrics back then have become millionaires. You can say, of course, that these people just got lucky. Just as you can say that Burry was just unlucky that the market remained irrational for so long. To me, when something consistently does not behave in the way that I predict that it should, then that’s a strong indicator to me that I must be overlooking something. There’s a fine line between saying that, in the short run, the market is just a voting machine rather than a weighing machine (which is true), and arrogance (which will cost you dearly in investing).
    - peteradio 4y ago
      > Many people who looked beyond those two metrics back then And what exactly were they looking at? The revolutionary tech? How well as that met expectations? > You can say, of course, that these people just got lucky. Yes, that is what I'm saying. Few people made lots of money off meme stocks.
      - leobg 4y ago
        Well, what good is debating me? If you‘re confident in your prediction, find a way to profit from it. If you can‘t profit from it (say, because you cannot predict the timing), move on to another place where you can. Otherwise, what good is all that learning and thinking that you‘ve done on this topic? (Unless, of course, you‘re in it for the sympathy of those who share your viewpoint. Then publicly debating makes a lot of sense. Although then you‘d be following the same mimetic impulse that you rightfully criticize in those who buy stocks based on memes and fashions, wouldn‘t you?)
        4y ago
- at-w 4y ago
  Did it go "terribly wrong"/do we know how large his position actually was?
- FreakLegion 4y ago
  > If you’re so confident, why don’t you short the stock? The IV was too high when I seriously considered puts late last year. Everyone else was thinking the same thing and enough were acting on it to make the trade unappealing. You can be certain a stock will go from $X to $X/2 and still not find the dynamics of shorting it worthwhile.
  - jterrys 4y ago
    options are a whole different ball game. You can short shares but I'm guessing that wasn't an option?
    - FreakLegion 4y ago
      Actual short-selling has unlimited downside. You can hedge around that of course, but why bother when there's a route that limits downside in the first place?
      - leobg 4y ago
        Well, options have the added risk that they'll just expire. With options, you've got to get lucky about your timing even more so than when shorting. Anyway. Nietzsche had a saying. Which is, "Where you cannot love there you shall pass by." Why try to make money by betting against a company when you can just find a different company to bet on instead?
        FreakLegion 4y ago
        > betting against a company I wouldn't have been betting against Tesla; I would've been betting on a frothy market coming to its senses. Shorting isn't per se a bet against a company, just a prediction that a number will go down. Why it goes down may and often does have nothing much to do with the company. This is also true when the number goes up. Anyway, that's a saying of Zarathustra's, not Nietzsche's. Author and character are not the same. Deleuze had a saying: "Good destruction requires love."
IAmGraydon 4y ago
Oh I absolutely agree. The point stands that he failed to predict market behavior.

> guy who held a short position on TSLA through the entire rally TSLA is Wiley Coyote waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay over the ledge. "Investors" also created a rally for GME out of thin air.

leobg 4y ago

If you’re so confident, why don’t you short the stock? And if you don’t dare to short, then what value does your confidence have? I’m sure that Burry, too, still thinks he is right and the market is just being irrational longer than he can stay solvent. But that doesn’t change the outcome, which is that his bet went terribly wrong for him.

WastingMyTime89 4y ago
Well, I mean there is always the good old: “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” But there definitely is something strange with Tesla valuation. It’s above their 5 biggest competitors combined. Plus their multiples are way off compared to the other players in their market. It doesn’t look particularly sustainable to me.
- leobg 4y ago
  I understand that people have different opinions about Tesla. That’s not only fine, that’s also important. I just find it really weird when people have been saying the same things since 2016 (frankly, for much longer), proven wrong time and time again, about demand, production and stock price, among other things, and still do not concede even the possibility that there just might be something that they have been overlooking.
  - WastingMyTime89 4y ago
    > still do not concede even the possibility that there just might be something that they have been overlooking. I will bite. What do you think make Tesla special compared to their competitors? They clearly had a first mover advantage on EV which served them well but now that all manufacturers have good electric cars on offer what justify Tesla valuation?
    - leobg 4y ago
      Ok. I can share my thoughts. I‘d prefer to do this privately, though. Contact info is in my profile.
jterrys 4y ago
I forget who exactly said this, and apologies if I am butchering the proverb, but: "If you're right but your timing is wrong. You might as well just be wrong."
peteradio 4y ago
Tesla PE ratio as of November 04, 2022 is 66.42. The current dividend yield for Tesla as of November 04, 2022 is 0.00%. Dow PE ratio as of November 04, 2022 is 5.88.
- leobg 4y ago
  This argument has been made back in 2016 and before. Many people who looked beyond those two metrics back then have become millionaires. You can say, of course, that these people just got lucky. Just as you can say that Burry was just unlucky that the market remained irrational for so long. To me, when something consistently does not behave in the way that I predict that it should, then that’s a strong indicator to me that I must be overlooking something. There’s a fine line between saying that, in the short run, the market is just a voting machine rather than a weighing machine (which is true), and arrogance (which will cost you dearly in investing).
  - peteradio 4y ago
    > Many people who looked beyond those two metrics back then And what exactly were they looking at? The revolutionary tech? How well as that met expectations? > You can say, of course, that these people just got lucky. Yes, that is what I'm saying. Few people made lots of money off meme stocks.
    - leobg 4y ago
      Well, what good is debating me? If you‘re confident in your prediction, find a way to profit from it. If you can‘t profit from it (say, because you cannot predict the timing), move on to another place where you can. Otherwise, what good is all that learning and thinking that you‘ve done on this topic? (Unless, of course, you‘re in it for the sympathy of those who share your viewpoint. Then publicly debating makes a lot of sense. Although then you‘d be following the same mimetic impulse that you rightfully criticize in those who buy stocks based on memes and fashions, wouldn‘t you?)
      - 4y ago
at-w 4y ago
Did it go "terribly wrong"/do we know how large his position actually was?
FreakLegion 4y ago
> If you’re so confident, why don’t you short the stock? The IV was too high when I seriously considered puts late last year. Everyone else was thinking the same thing and enough were acting on it to make the trade unappealing. You can be certain a stock will go from $X to $X/2 and still not find the dynamics of shorting it worthwhile.
- jterrys 4y ago
  options are a whole different ball game. You can short shares but I'm guessing that wasn't an option?
  - FreakLegion 4y ago
    Actual short-selling has unlimited downside. You can hedge around that of course, but why bother when there's a route that limits downside in the first place?
    - leobg 4y ago
      Well, options have the added risk that they'll just expire. With options, you've got to get lucky about your timing even more so than when shorting. Anyway. Nietzsche had a saying. Which is, "Where you cannot love there you shall pass by." Why try to make money by betting against a company when you can just find a different company to bet on instead?
      - FreakLegion 4y ago
        > betting against a company I wouldn't have been betting against Tesla; I would've been betting on a frothy market coming to its senses. Shorting isn't per se a bet against a company, just a prediction that a number will go down. Why it goes down may and often does have nothing much to do with the company. This is also true when the number goes up. Anyway, that's a saying of Zarathustra's, not Nietzsche's. Author and character are not the same. Deleuze had a saying: "Good destruction requires love."

IAmGraydon 4y ago

Oh I absolutely agree. The point stands that he failed to predict market behavior.