And herein lies the problem with being contrarian. It’s impossible to be both contrarian and correct with sufficient reliability that you beat the market. You w

And herein lies the problem with being contrarian. It’s impossible to be both contrarian and correct with sufficient reliability that you beat the market. You will get it right sometimes and wrong other times. But not consistently. Everyone should go and read A Random Walk Down Wall St and Irrational Exuberance. For a retail investor, the first book teaches you that beating the market is a random process, so there is no point in trying. Any advantage you gain from being smart will be paid for in time invested in being smart enough to beat the market. Irrational Exuberance teaches the retail investor that markets go through long, yet unpredictable, periods of irrational behavior. Even experts struggle to explain the movements of the market, so as a lowly retail investor, you’re unlikely to have any chance at winning the game. Ultimately, while each book looks at the world in a contrasting way - one assumes investors are collectively rational and the other assumes the opposite - the lesson is the same for a retail investor: just live your life, invest passively, and give up on trying to get rich quick in the market because it’s random whether you’ll succeed.