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Burry is subtly wrong, and I'll tell you why. The biggest bubble for the past 20 years has been in bonds. Stocks went along for the ride. When you can't get a
by fny 4y ago
Burry is subtly wrong, and I'll tell you why.
The biggest bubble for the past 20 years has been in bonds. Stocks went along for the ride. When you can't get a reasonable return on debt, you'll be fine paying for a zero coupon stock that has the chance of 10xing (Tesla.)
The script has now normalized and may soon flip. Say the Fed unloads it's QE balance sheet from even as far back as '08. Debt will become extremely attractive and there will be a massive allocation out of relatively low yielding index funds into debt.
Right now yields are eye poppingly good, and we're not even quite to the long term historical average of 4.5%+.
Also, there's a lot of fear of certain forms of debt that are actually safer than they've ever been. Mortgage REITs for example are incredibly attractive especially after the post '08 regulations. The shift back towards debt and classical savings is what will drain the market, not some index fund issue--although I do agree index funds will probably underperform some active managers until they rebalance towards businesses with nearer term cash flows.
For everyone screaming about a depression, go out on a Sunday to a restaurant. Everything is packed. Working people are making a better wage, inflation has slowed, and they get better savings at their bank.
Finally, I know there's this narrative that governments will "inflate their way out of debt" which makes debt more risky. Sure this is a possibility. It's just as possible as a company issuing more stock, but it's not guaranteed. There's a political question that needs to be answered. Maybe we solve the debt issue by taxing those who benefited disproportionately from ZIRP more. Maybe we just slow government spending and let the economy continue to expand on its own. We as a country get to decide whether we inflate it away or we do something else along with who benefits and loses from that process.
- MuffinFlavored 4y ago> Debt will become extremely attractive How attractive? 10y yield at 5% attractive?
- fny 4y agoThat's the risk free rate. Go look at other debt instruments. You can find yields on corporate bonds from solid companies in the 10+ range (Citrix), mortgage baskets go even as high as 16%.
- chncczooqmrc 4y agoYou can get 5-year CDs at 5% now.
- fny 4y agoThis is a bad idea. Buy US treasuries directly. CDs are a scam.