4 ms·

I was referring to them taking calculated risks; not doing exactly the same thing.

ch4s3 4y ago
Dumping 20 tons of metal from orbit isn't a "calculated risk" its sloppy and dangerous. They could have built the rocket using 50 years of experience knowing this could be an issue, instead they just lie and say it will burn up. They already dropped one on a village.
- xtian 4y ago
  > They already dropped one on a village. That sounds pretty serious. Was there any official investigation or just ambiguous pictures posted on social media?
  - ch4s3 4y ago
    It happened in May of 2020. The debris landed in Côte d'Ivoire and the debris was spotted in it’s way down by a local infrasound station. The debris was tracked in the atmosphere by multiple governments and there are photos. Google it for yourself.
    - xtian 4y ago
      I tried Googling for an official report or investigation but I couldn’t find one. Do you know if any of these multiple governments issued one?
      - ch4s3 4y ago
        Astro physicist Johnathan McDowell[1] was tracking it. I doubt the Cotes d'Ivoire did an official investigation due to their general lack of funds, and China denies that the Long March can even reenter the atmosphere so they didn't go check it out. Here's another story that references local reports[2]. An article from Ars quoting the US Space Force confirming entry over the Atlantic headed toward Cotes d'Ivoire[3]. What more do you want? [1] https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1260222397350887425 https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1260222397350887425 [2] https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/13/21256484/china-rocket-debris-africa-uncontrolled-reentry-long-march-5b https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/13/21256484/china-rocket-deb... [3] https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/large-chunks-of-a-chinese-rocket-missed-new-york-city-by-about-15-minutes/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/large-chunks-of-a-ch...
        xtian 4y ago
        Just anything more conclusive than social media posts. An actual investigation into these reports and purported debris fragments. According to Wikipedia, Cotes d'Ivoire is one of the largest economies in West Africa, representing 40% of the total GDP of the Economic Community of West African States.
        ch4s3 4y ago
        There are numerous scientists and government agencies on the record making official press releases claiming to have tracked the rocket debris to an area of Cotes d'Ivoire. There are photos in Cotes d'Ivoire of wreckage consistent with the rocket. Why do you need an "official investigation"? Who would you trust to do that? Why are you taking the word of the Chinese government?
        MichaelZuo 4y ago
        The Verge article links to a 'local news site' afriksoir.net that looks really shady, similar to clickbait spam sites. Registered on April 9th, 2019 with GoDaddy according to WHOIS. It's top story today is just commenting on some Ivorian politican's Twitter feed https://afriksoir.net/lobognon-junte-goita-integrite-mali-journaliste-malick-konate-cible/ https://afriksoir.net/lobognon-junte-goita-integrite-mali-jo... And it's not linked to any established West African news organization. This took me about 10 minutes of digging to uncover. So if Verge thinks this is a credible source that really speaks volumes.
        ch4s3 4y ago
        Oh please, numerous scientists and governments tracked the Rocket debris going down over Cotes d’Ivoire. It landed somewhere there for sure. Analysts think the photo is credible. The preponderance of evidence points in a clear direction, we’re not trying to convict someone of murder here. What do you think fell in Cotes d’Ivoire? What level of proof would be sufficient? Why are you so willing to believe the CCO line here? How have they demonstrated evidence to the contrary? If it burned up in reentry surely they have proof no? Where’s there investigation?
- ghufran_syed 4y ago
  the real issue is “what is the probability of human injury or death?” Is it 1% per launch? 0.01% 0.000001% The area of the earth’s surface occupied by humans (not their stuff, but the people themselves) is around 8000 km^2 (1m^2 per person) out of a total Earth surface area of 510 million km^2. so the probability is around 1.6E-5 or 0.0016% per launch. This obviously doesn’t account for the specific trajectory or population distribution, but gives us a rough order of magnitude. I would prefer they didn’t do it also, and it definitely loses them international good will - but it’s a pretty low (but non-zero) risk. [typo corrected]
  - ch4s3 4y ago
    It's just a known issue that could be trivially avoided in the design phase. Even building for controlled reentry could have allowed them to accurately dump it in the ocean 100% of the time. It just super dick-ish to not do that and lie about every time you launch. The lie that the whole thing burns up on reentry is also super shitty and indefensible when these huge hunks of metal are trivially tracked by scientists and governments world wide.

Dumping 20 tons of metal from orbit isn't a "calculated risk" its sloppy and dangerous. They could have built the rocket using 50 years of experience knowing this could be an issue, instead they just lie and say it will burn up. They already dropped one on a village.

xtian 4y ago
> They already dropped one on a village. That sounds pretty serious. Was there any official investigation or just ambiguous pictures posted on social media?
- ch4s3 4y ago
  It happened in May of 2020. The debris landed in Côte d'Ivoire and the debris was spotted in it’s way down by a local infrasound station. The debris was tracked in the atmosphere by multiple governments and there are photos. Google it for yourself.
  - xtian 4y ago
    I tried Googling for an official report or investigation but I couldn’t find one. Do you know if any of these multiple governments issued one?
    - ch4s3 4y ago
      Astro physicist Johnathan McDowell[1] was tracking it. I doubt the Cotes d'Ivoire did an official investigation due to their general lack of funds, and China denies that the Long March can even reenter the atmosphere so they didn't go check it out. Here's another story that references local reports[2]. An article from Ars quoting the US Space Force confirming entry over the Atlantic headed toward Cotes d'Ivoire[3]. What more do you want? [1] https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1260222397350887425 https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1260222397350887425 [2] https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/13/21256484/china-rocket-debris-africa-uncontrolled-reentry-long-march-5b https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/13/21256484/china-rocket-deb... [3] https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/large-chunks-of-a-chinese-rocket-missed-new-york-city-by-about-15-minutes/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/large-chunks-of-a-ch...
      - xtian 4y ago
        Just anything more conclusive than social media posts. An actual investigation into these reports and purported debris fragments. According to Wikipedia, Cotes d'Ivoire is one of the largest economies in West Africa, representing 40% of the total GDP of the Economic Community of West African States.
        ch4s3 4y ago
        There are numerous scientists and government agencies on the record making official press releases claiming to have tracked the rocket debris to an area of Cotes d'Ivoire. There are photos in Cotes d'Ivoire of wreckage consistent with the rocket. Why do you need an "official investigation"? Who would you trust to do that? Why are you taking the word of the Chinese government?
        MichaelZuo 4y ago
        The Verge article links to a 'local news site' afriksoir.net that looks really shady, similar to clickbait spam sites. Registered on April 9th, 2019 with GoDaddy according to WHOIS. It's top story today is just commenting on some Ivorian politican's Twitter feed https://afriksoir.net/lobognon-junte-goita-integrite-mali-journaliste-malick-konate-cible/ https://afriksoir.net/lobognon-junte-goita-integrite-mali-jo... And it's not linked to any established West African news organization. This took me about 10 minutes of digging to uncover. So if Verge thinks this is a credible source that really speaks volumes.
        ch4s3 4y ago
        Oh please, numerous scientists and governments tracked the Rocket debris going down over Cotes d’Ivoire. It landed somewhere there for sure. Analysts think the photo is credible. The preponderance of evidence points in a clear direction, we’re not trying to convict someone of murder here. What do you think fell in Cotes d’Ivoire? What level of proof would be sufficient? Why are you so willing to believe the CCO line here? How have they demonstrated evidence to the contrary? If it burned up in reentry surely they have proof no? Where’s there investigation?
ghufran_syed 4y ago
the real issue is “what is the probability of human injury or death?” Is it 1% per launch? 0.01% 0.000001% The area of the earth’s surface occupied by humans (not their stuff, but the people themselves) is around 8000 km^2 (1m^2 per person) out of a total Earth surface area of 510 million km^2. so the probability is around 1.6E-5 or 0.0016% per launch. This obviously doesn’t account for the specific trajectory or population distribution, but gives us a rough order of magnitude. I would prefer they didn’t do it also, and it definitely loses them international good will - but it’s a pretty low (but non-zero) risk. [typo corrected]
- ch4s3 4y ago
  It's just a known issue that could be trivially avoided in the design phase. Even building for controlled reentry could have allowed them to accurately dump it in the ocean 100% of the time. It just super dick-ish to not do that and lie about every time you launch. The lie that the whole thing burns up on reentry is also super shitty and indefensible when these huge hunks of metal are trivially tracked by scientists and governments world wide.