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baybal's comment is now dead, I'm not sure why. It has some grammar mistakes, but I've seen much worse comments on Hacker News get upvoted. I think baybal was t

baybal's comment is now dead, I'm not sure why. It has some grammar mistakes, but I've seen much worse comments on Hacker News get upvoted. I think baybal was trying to make the point that Ukraine needs a large volunteer force to stay in this war? This sentence: "This is all shows that you can't fight something like Russia with professional army only if you are a country of only 44m people." is correct, if the implication is something like "Only with a mass draft can a nation of 44 million fight against a nation 143 million people." I think we all understand that the situation in Ukraine is very difficult right now.

luciusdomitius 4y ago
Population is not that different and the motivation and defensive advantage the Ukrainians have, should even it out at least a bit. But... When you look at GDP it is $1,578B[0] vs $112B[1] - e.g. more than 12x. And this is with an extremely heavily sanctioned Russia. In terms of industrial manufacturing and technologies, the difference is even more shocking. That's why this full on fight is bound to bring only suffering, misery and an even greater defeat. Real shame though - I have been to Uzhhorod and Lvov and those are great places with great people. Their leaders though... 0. https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/ukraine-gdp/ https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/ukraine-gdp/ 1. https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/russia-gdp/ https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/russia-gdp/
- gus_massa 4y ago
  The GDP difference is not so big is you consider that they are not fighting Ukraine alone, but also all the countries that believe that they are in the "to be invaded" list [1]. So money/weapons/training flow, but not soldiers. It's good deal for Ukraine because they get money they need for the defense and it's a good deal for the other country because they prefer that the war is fight elsewhere. [1] And a few more countries with geopolitical motivations.
UltraViolence 4y ago
Ukraine has almost 50 million inhabitants and I estimate about 15 million males which are eligible for military duty. The problem isn't recruits, its training and arming them in the field. You need ammunition, clothes, tents, food, water, fuel, transportation and sanitation to keep them in top condition. Ukraine cannot switch over to a wartime economy, since that would quickly ruin the country. Only a small percentage of Ukrainian males are currently under arms (I estimate 300.000 or less). Ukraine currently has the backing of most Western nations, but it's likely support for the war sag if prices and economic conditions worsen in the U.S. and Europe.
- rdtwo 4y ago
  I can’t imagine Ukraine has much of an economy left. It doesn’t really need one though because other countries are paying for the war effort
- helij 4y ago
  Actually, they have ~40M (even less now) out of which ~10M are people who consider themselves Russians and ~15M who speak Russian. At best they have some 8M males between 18-54 for military duty who would actually fight for Ukraine. Still a lot but twice less than what you posted.
nkurz 4y ago
Baybal is a complex case (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29654137 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29654137, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21190265 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21190265), and his comments are always dead on arrival. That is, they weren't dead because of the content of that particular comment, but because he has a history with the site of not always following the rules. Whether the fault is with him or with the rules is up for debate, but the current compromise is that all his comments start out dead. These comments on this thread seemed useful and insightful, so I vouched for them to make them visible. Presumably others did the same.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
paganel 4y ago
Ukraine is already on the 7th or 8th wave of mobilisation for their men, they're long past the stage of "we're only going to rely on our professional soldiers".
- lkrubner 4y ago
  I believe that is what Baybal was trying to say, though perhaps they could have phrased it more clearly.
lkrubner 4y ago
If anyone is interested in some speculative explorations of scenarios, to game out the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, then you might be interested in "If a Western nation joins the fighting in Ukraine, what will happen?" https://demodexio.substack.com/p/if-a-western-nation-joins-the-fighting https://demodexio.substack.com/p/if-a-western-nation-joins-t...

luciusdomitius 4y ago

Population is not that different and the motivation and defensive advantage the Ukrainians have, should even it out at least a bit. But... When you look at GDP it is $1,578B[0] vs $112B[1] - e.g. more than 12x. And this is with an extremely heavily sanctioned Russia. In terms of industrial manufacturing and technologies, the difference is even more shocking. That's why this full on fight is bound to bring only suffering, misery and an even greater defeat. Real shame though - I have been to Uzhhorod and Lvov and those are great places with great people. Their leaders though... 0. https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/ukraine-gdp/ https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/ukraine-gdp/ 1. https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/russia-gdp/ https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/russia-gdp/

gus_massa 4y ago
The GDP difference is not so big is you consider that they are not fighting Ukraine alone, but also all the countries that believe that they are in the "to be invaded" list [1]. So money/weapons/training flow, but not soldiers. It's good deal for Ukraine because they get money they need for the defense and it's a good deal for the other country because they prefer that the war is fight elsewhere. [1] And a few more countries with geopolitical motivations.

UltraViolence 4y ago

Ukraine has almost 50 million inhabitants and I estimate about 15 million males which are eligible for military duty. The problem isn't recruits, its training and arming them in the field. You need ammunition, clothes, tents, food, water, fuel, transportation and sanitation to keep them in top condition. Ukraine cannot switch over to a wartime economy, since that would quickly ruin the country. Only a small percentage of Ukrainian males are currently under arms (I estimate 300.000 or less). Ukraine currently has the backing of most Western nations, but it's likely support for the war sag if prices and economic conditions worsen in the U.S. and Europe.

rdtwo 4y ago
I can’t imagine Ukraine has much of an economy left. It doesn’t really need one though because other countries are paying for the war effort
helij 4y ago
Actually, they have ~40M (even less now) out of which ~10M are people who consider themselves Russians and ~15M who speak Russian. At best they have some 8M males between 18-54 for military duty who would actually fight for Ukraine. Still a lot but twice less than what you posted.

nkurz 4y ago

Baybal is a complex case (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29654137 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29654137, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21190265 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21190265), and his comments are always dead on arrival. That is, they weren't dead because of the content of that particular comment, but because he has a history with the site of not always following the rules. Whether the fault is with him or with the rules is up for debate, but the current compromise is that all his comments start out dead. These comments on this thread seemed useful and insightful, so I vouched for them to make them visible. Presumably others did the same.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

paganel 4y ago

Ukraine is already on the 7th or 8th wave of mobilisation for their men, they're long past the stage of "we're only going to rely on our professional soldiers".

lkrubner 4y ago
I believe that is what Baybal was trying to say, though perhaps they could have phrased it more clearly.

lkrubner 4y ago

If anyone is interested in some speculative explorations of scenarios, to game out the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, then you might be interested in "If a Western nation joins the fighting in Ukraine, what will happen?" https://demodexio.substack.com/p/if-a-western-nation-joins-the-fighting https://demodexio.substack.com/p/if-a-western-nation-joins-t...