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It's all about risk minimization. Assume for a second that you don't read the news and all you see are numbers. (This kind of scenario is kind fairly accurate f
by charlesju 18y ago
It's all about risk minimization. Assume for a second that you don't read the news and all you see are numbers. (This kind of scenario is kind fairly accurate for most investors because most investors don't beat the index, so they might as well be news agnostic anyways.) Right now, in our hypothetical, you want to invest in the market. You saw that it fell 30 odd % since the top and that if you compare that % to previous great depressions and recessions, it's on par with the bottom of those analogous situations. If you buy in at one single point, you have a high risk that the stock market will drop and you'll lose a lot of money. But if you averaged in, you'll minimize the risk of catching the exact bottom of the stock market, and overall, should increase the average buy-in price.
The main reason why this works as opposed to just reading the news and choosing based on logic is because more than 50% of professional investors fail to out-invest the index. That means that you have a much better chance of catching the lowest buy-in to the stock market than if you were to use "logic".
It's pretty counter-intuitive, but it makes sense if you just come to the realization that we're not that good investing.