4 ms·

Isn't it premature to call Twitter's death? Is there any data to show it's actually going to be immediately replaced by anything else? I have no doubt that Mus

by bagels 4y ago

Isn't it premature to call Twitter's death? Is there any data to show it's actually going to be immediately replaced by anything else? I have no doubt that Musk is doing damage, but the hypothesis is: change can happen really fast, therefore Twitter will immediately fail, which isn't a self evident truth.

lapcat 4y ago
> Is there any data to show it's actually going to be immediately replaced by anything else? From the article: > I keep wondering about “what is going to replace Twitter”, but I am increasingly of the belief that this is the wrong question, that no single thing is going to replace Twitter. That is, Twitter as an idea — a single social platform catering to all demographics and uses — will become like the evening nightly news or the morning newspaper: a relic from a bygone era.
- lokedhs 4y ago
  That would be nice. But at some point, someone will both have the resources as well as the luck of being at the right place and a new, possibly more powerful (because they will be more competent than twitter) platform will take over. Unfortunately, in the meantime some people believe that Mastodon may be filling that void. I don't think it can, but as a long time Fediverse user, I'm worried that people will think that for long enough to change it into something it couldn't be.
mbreese 4y ago
It already has changed. The Twitter from two weeks ago is gone and replaced with… something. We don’t know what that currently means, but it is different. The hypothesis wasn’t that Twitter will immediately fail. It was that it is currently on that path. And that changes happen gradually, but can be profound. (Or as the trope about bankruptcy goes: it happens gradually and then all at once). It might not ever “fail” as a company, but it’s on that path. Whether that is less relevance or a bankrupt company, it’s too early to say. All we do know is that it is changing.
- simondotau 4y ago
  > It already has changed. The Twitter from two weeks ago is gone Is it though? My own experience is that Twitter is exactly the same as it was two weeks ago. The only difference I'm seeing is that a lot of people on Twitter are currently preoccupied with the topic of Twitter. As far as I can tell it's not really much different than when a lot of people on Twitter have been preoccupied with some other controversy. And in every case, the same discussions of general news and domestic politics go on entirely unaffected.
  - the_mitsuhiko 4y ago
    > Is it though? I can at least say that it is for me. Not because of changes on Twitter but because a lot of the people I am on Twitter for have all the sudden created Mastodon profiles and started posting content there too.
  - piva00 4y ago
    It is. We might not see all the ramifications of it in the public sphere yet but it's, definitely, a different company going into a different direction with their product. Like GP said, what it has become is still for us to find out but the wheel has been set in motion: staff is being laid off, product changes are being introduced, whole departments are left not staffed and it will take weeks to months for all of this to unravel. It is a different beast, internally, than it was 2 weeks ago. It will keep changing and being molded but that Twitter no longer exists, it's on the path to become something else.
    - simondotau 4y ago
      I’m confused how the semantic game of “that Twitter no longer exists” contributes to the discussion. By that same logic, you could say that the Twitter of 2015 didn’t exist in 2020. The only difference is the speed of change.
  - dragontamer 4y ago
    Twitter has gone from losing -$200 million per year into losing -$2,000 million per year... in just one week. ($1,300 million extra losses from the debt associated with the buyout, $600 million lost in advertising revenue). Its a serious problem for sure. Its obviously a far more stressful situation for all involved. Perhaps the typical user isn't affected yet, but we're all forward looking. Anyone who can add up revenue / costs / profits can see that Twitter suddenly became in trouble this past week.
andrewflnr 4y ago
Re replacement, I agree with OP > I am increasingly of the belief that this is the wrong question, that no single thing is going to replace Twitter.
flir 4y ago
I don't think a replacement is a prerequisite. Tumblr died, but there was never an obvious "everyone moved over here" platform replacing it. Communities coalesce, and disperse. They rarely move as a flock.
- bombcar 4y ago
  They moved to Twitter (and somewhat less to Reddit) as far as I know.
- raydev 4y ago
  It doesn't look like "everyone moved here" because "here" is so massive already. Tumblr users did move to Twitter, but they arrived with millions of other people.
givemeethekeys 4y ago
Since they no longer have the same influence as before over how the company operates, the people and groups who lost the power are going all out to weaken Twitter's influence now while it is weak. I follow a handful of people directly, and my experience hasn't changed.
paulpauper 4y ago
Like uber, twitter has been failing forever yet hangs on.
ksec 4y ago
Are there Companies threatening to pull Ads from Twitter? Yes, but just like with Facebook, they did eventually came back. Assuming Twitter still has most of its users. So yes I agree I am not entirely sure why everyone seems to be jumping to conclusion. Just like everyone ( or People on the internet ) thought consumers were abandoning Facebook in 2015, 2016 or 2019.
Eddy_Viscosity2 4y ago
As Ernest Hemmingway potentially said, "you go bankrupt slowly at first, then all at once"

by bagels 4y ago

lapcat 4y ago

> Is there any data to show it's actually going to be immediately replaced by anything else? From the article: > I keep wondering about “what is going to replace Twitter”, but I am increasingly of the belief that this is the wrong question, that no single thing is going to replace Twitter. That is, Twitter as an idea — a single social platform catering to all demographics and uses — will become like the evening nightly news or the morning newspaper: a relic from a bygone era.

lokedhs 4y ago
That would be nice. But at some point, someone will both have the resources as well as the luck of being at the right place and a new, possibly more powerful (because they will be more competent than twitter) platform will take over. Unfortunately, in the meantime some people believe that Mastodon may be filling that void. I don't think it can, but as a long time Fediverse user, I'm worried that people will think that for long enough to change it into something it couldn't be.

mbreese 4y ago

It already has changed. The Twitter from two weeks ago is gone and replaced with… something. We don’t know what that currently means, but it is different. The hypothesis wasn’t that Twitter will immediately fail. It was that it is currently on that path. And that changes happen gradually, but can be profound. (Or as the trope about bankruptcy goes: it happens gradually and then all at once). It might not ever “fail” as a company, but it’s on that path. Whether that is less relevance or a bankrupt company, it’s too early to say. All we do know is that it is changing.

simondotau 4y ago
> It already has changed. The Twitter from two weeks ago is gone Is it though? My own experience is that Twitter is exactly the same as it was two weeks ago. The only difference I'm seeing is that a lot of people on Twitter are currently preoccupied with the topic of Twitter. As far as I can tell it's not really much different than when a lot of people on Twitter have been preoccupied with some other controversy. And in every case, the same discussions of general news and domestic politics go on entirely unaffected.
- the_mitsuhiko 4y ago
  > Is it though? I can at least say that it is for me. Not because of changes on Twitter but because a lot of the people I am on Twitter for have all the sudden created Mastodon profiles and started posting content there too.
- piva00 4y ago
  It is. We might not see all the ramifications of it in the public sphere yet but it's, definitely, a different company going into a different direction with their product. Like GP said, what it has become is still for us to find out but the wheel has been set in motion: staff is being laid off, product changes are being introduced, whole departments are left not staffed and it will take weeks to months for all of this to unravel. It is a different beast, internally, than it was 2 weeks ago. It will keep changing and being molded but that Twitter no longer exists, it's on the path to become something else.
  - simondotau 4y ago
    I’m confused how the semantic game of “that Twitter no longer exists” contributes to the discussion. By that same logic, you could say that the Twitter of 2015 didn’t exist in 2020. The only difference is the speed of change.
- dragontamer 4y ago
  Twitter has gone from losing -$200 million per year into losing -$2,000 million per year... in just one week. ($1,300 million extra losses from the debt associated with the buyout, $600 million lost in advertising revenue). Its a serious problem for sure. Its obviously a far more stressful situation for all involved. Perhaps the typical user isn't affected yet, but we're all forward looking. Anyone who can add up revenue / costs / profits can see that Twitter suddenly became in trouble this past week.

andrewflnr 4y ago

Re replacement, I agree with OP > I am increasingly of the belief that this is the wrong question, that no single thing is going to replace Twitter.

flir 4y ago

I don't think a replacement is a prerequisite. Tumblr died, but there was never an obvious "everyone moved over here" platform replacing it. Communities coalesce, and disperse. They rarely move as a flock.

bombcar 4y ago
They moved to Twitter (and somewhat less to Reddit) as far as I know.
raydev 4y ago
It doesn't look like "everyone moved here" because "here" is so massive already. Tumblr users did move to Twitter, but they arrived with millions of other people.

givemeethekeys 4y ago

Since they no longer have the same influence as before over how the company operates, the people and groups who lost the power are going all out to weaken Twitter's influence now while it is weak. I follow a handful of people directly, and my experience hasn't changed.

paulpauper 4y ago

Like uber, twitter has been failing forever yet hangs on.

ksec 4y ago

Are there Companies threatening to pull Ads from Twitter? Yes, but just like with Facebook, they did eventually came back. Assuming Twitter still has most of its users. So yes I agree I am not entirely sure why everyone seems to be jumping to conclusion. Just like everyone ( or People on the internet ) thought consumers were abandoning Facebook in 2015, 2016 or 2019.

Eddy_Viscosity2 4y ago

As Ernest Hemmingway potentially said, "you go bankrupt slowly at first, then all at once"