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Good to see you finally backing up your claims with sources. The first source is paywalled though. Yes user-wise they do seem to be doing fine, but I'd like to

Good to see you finally backing up your claims with sources. The first source is paywalled though. Yes user-wise they do seem to be doing fine, but I'd like to know where the growth is happening. That's important. The 2nd source has some interesting demographics, but unfortunately doesn't include growth which would be the most interesting to me. Very interesting that their largest user base by far is now in India, which I hinted at before. I suspect much of their growth from their latest earnings report is from that region of the world. Which also helps explain why ad revenue is down. Note also that ad reach in India is a very low 30% compared to the UK at 60% or Mexico over 80%. They didn't give numbers for the US. But if a lot of the growth is in India with such a low ad reach, that doesn't bode well for ad revenue. Facebook also seems to be failing at attracting the young demographic from the west that advertisers love. As their core user base ages it will be interesting to see if they can maintain the interest of advertisers. I think Instagram is going to prop them up for a while. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if Facebook starts to become less important to advertisers, who will quickly move to wherever their target audience spends the most time. Either way, just because FB is doing fine user wise doesn't mean that folks on HN who threatened to quit FB didn't actually go ahead and do that. If every HN user quit FB in one day, I don't think it would even show up on any chart.

dmix 4y ago
> doesn't mean that folks on HN who threatened to quit FB didn't actually go ahead and do that. Of course it doesn't? Who cares. I deleted my account too but that doesn't mean much. I'm highly skeptical this outrage cycle will go on for long enough to seriously impact their userbase. Absent a proper competitor to Twitter. I've been part of enough internet boycotts of them to be cynical about their odds. Also I'm not sure why you're having trouble finding Facebook data... just google it if you care so much about dismissing their obvious dominance. And WSJ paywall is easily bypassable.
- tchaffee 4y ago
  I'm not having trouble finding Facebook data. Did you get that idea from me asking you to back up your own claims? Yes paywalls are easy to bypass. It's also a reasonable choice to respect them.
  - dmix 4y ago
    Don't mistake a stagnant market for a dying one. If stagnant equalled death then Japan's economy would have been poor long ago. > I'm not having trouble finding Facebook data. Did you get that idea from me asking you to back up your own claims? You've asked me repeatedly about geographic and demographic data that Facebook (and plenty of 3rd party data mining sites) post publicly. If you actually care just compare it to other sites and make your own judgement calls. If Facebook was really dying in the west then we'd be hearing about it. You seem to be using anecdotal data, in my life everyone I know hates Facebook but at least 75% of them use it... especially 90% of the non-technical ones who tend to be the best ad targets. Maybe you're not talking to enough regular people?
    - tchaffee 4y ago
      I asked you to back up your claims with sources. That's pretty common here, and also in scientific circles. We aren't your research assistants so if you want your claims to be taken seriously and discussed in detail, expect to give your sources. I didn't claim Facebook is dying in the West. That's you putting words in my mouth.

dmix 4y ago

> doesn't mean that folks on HN who threatened to quit FB didn't actually go ahead and do that. Of course it doesn't? Who cares. I deleted my account too but that doesn't mean much. I'm highly skeptical this outrage cycle will go on for long enough to seriously impact their userbase. Absent a proper competitor to Twitter. I've been part of enough internet boycotts of them to be cynical about their odds. Also I'm not sure why you're having trouble finding Facebook data... just google it if you care so much about dismissing their obvious dominance. And WSJ paywall is easily bypassable.

tchaffee 4y ago
I'm not having trouble finding Facebook data. Did you get that idea from me asking you to back up your own claims? Yes paywalls are easy to bypass. It's also a reasonable choice to respect them.
- dmix 4y ago
  Don't mistake a stagnant market for a dying one. If stagnant equalled death then Japan's economy would have been poor long ago. > I'm not having trouble finding Facebook data. Did you get that idea from me asking you to back up your own claims? You've asked me repeatedly about geographic and demographic data that Facebook (and plenty of 3rd party data mining sites) post publicly. If you actually care just compare it to other sites and make your own judgement calls. If Facebook was really dying in the west then we'd be hearing about it. You seem to be using anecdotal data, in my life everyone I know hates Facebook but at least 75% of them use it... especially 90% of the non-technical ones who tend to be the best ad targets. Maybe you're not talking to enough regular people?
  - tchaffee 4y ago
    I asked you to back up your claims with sources. That's pretty common here, and also in scientific circles. We aren't your research assistants so if you want your claims to be taken seriously and discussed in detail, expect to give your sources. I didn't claim Facebook is dying in the West. That's you putting words in my mouth.