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“Increasingly will be used…” When will the crypto community finally quit with “it’s still early”? Bitcoin is 13 years old. Ethereum is seven years old. Tens i

“Increasingly will be used…” When will the crypto community finally quit with “it’s still early”? Bitcoin is 13 years old. Ethereum is seven years old. Tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars have been invested in the ecosystem. Please look at block explorers across L1s, L2s, and side chains for daily transactions, unique addresses, etc. User adoption is abysmal and that says it all. I was really excited about cryptocurrencies and blockchain until I woke up one day and realized a decade has gone by and outside of gambling on crypto exchanges and people who make it their identity the entire thing could disappear tomorrow and literally 99% of the population wouldn’t know the difference.

BlueTemplar 4y ago
Well, the Web was 7 years old in 1996, the Internet itself probably older (multiple potential beginning years for the Internet as we know it), and at that point they were still pretty confidential... (Not to say that blockchains will have a huge success, but it's also not like progress hasn't been happening, haven't they managed to work out viable proof of stake recently?)
- kkielhofner 4y ago
  In 1990 15% of US households even had a computer (the highest percentage in the world). A small number of those had a modem or were otherwise web capable. Modems alone were roughly $1,000 (inflation adjusted) in 1990. When I first got on the internet in 1994 the computer was $5000 (inflation adjusted). Mosaic wasn’t even released until 1993… The growth of the web also depended on laying many millions of miles of fiber that required everything from digging up entire countries to dispatching ships to cross the world’s oceans. Millions more phone lines, ISP modem banks in almost every phone central office in the country, etc. A truly monumental and expensive effort of humanity. In 2015 68% of the US population owned a smartphone. 85.5% of US households had the internet. Data is cheap, reliable, fast, and plentiful. Billions of users are interacting on social media platforms to enable communication and spread ideas across the globe more quickly than ever before. In 2015 these billions of people could catch a random Tweet, news story, etc and be counted as an Ethereum user in minutes for free or close to it. See the difference?
chrisco255 4y ago
Sure, I do: https://etherscan.io/chart/address https://etherscan.io/chart/address Steady growth of 50K-150K addresses per day. We're up to 210M addresses on ETH. Sorry to report we haven't hit the tail end plateau of S-curve adoption yet.
- kkielhofner 4y ago
  Address != user and we both know it's trivial to generate as many addresses as you want. Here's another chart: https://etherscan.io/chart/active-address https://etherscan.io/chart/active-address All time high is 1m addresses actually used in any 24 hour period, which is a significant outlier. The average is closer to 400k-500k. And another: https://etherscan.io/chart/tx https://etherscan.io/chart/tx 1.7m ATH daily transactions with the average being around 1m. I'm not exactly a statistician but a simple breakdown could be 500k people doing two transactions per day. Factoring in adoption is likely heavily weighted towards individual users (in the DAU sense) transacting with multiple addresses I think it's safe to assume the mapping between active addresses and users is some fraction - 1/2, 1/3, 1/4, etc. Being conservative and favoring Ethereum in this 250k DAUs for total on-chain activity encompassing all activity across the entire platform. You can look at cheap and "high" traffic sidechains, L2s, etc and pretty quickly determine that the number of DAUs across the entire ecosystem is in the low single digit millions at best. To be really fair let's say it's 10m - that's .02% of internet users daily. Even if we use your total addresses and assume each address is a user 210m users across the 5b people on the internet represents an adoption rate of 4.2% of internet users ever transacting with the network across the seven years of existence. In my original comment I said 99% of internet users wouldn't notice if it all disappeared. Looking at the numbers I think this was charitable. So yeah, abysmal.

BlueTemplar 4y ago

Well, the Web was 7 years old in 1996, the Internet itself probably older (multiple potential beginning years for the Internet as we know it), and at that point they were still pretty confidential... (Not to say that blockchains will have a huge success, but it's also not like progress hasn't been happening, haven't they managed to work out viable proof of stake recently?)

kkielhofner 4y ago
In 1990 15% of US households even had a computer (the highest percentage in the world). A small number of those had a modem or were otherwise web capable. Modems alone were roughly $1,000 (inflation adjusted) in 1990. When I first got on the internet in 1994 the computer was $5000 (inflation adjusted). Mosaic wasn’t even released until 1993… The growth of the web also depended on laying many millions of miles of fiber that required everything from digging up entire countries to dispatching ships to cross the world’s oceans. Millions more phone lines, ISP modem banks in almost every phone central office in the country, etc. A truly monumental and expensive effort of humanity. In 2015 68% of the US population owned a smartphone. 85.5% of US households had the internet. Data is cheap, reliable, fast, and plentiful. Billions of users are interacting on social media platforms to enable communication and spread ideas across the globe more quickly than ever before. In 2015 these billions of people could catch a random Tweet, news story, etc and be counted as an Ethereum user in minutes for free or close to it. See the difference?

chrisco255 4y ago

Sure, I do: https://etherscan.io/chart/address https://etherscan.io/chart/address Steady growth of 50K-150K addresses per day. We're up to 210M addresses on ETH. Sorry to report we haven't hit the tail end plateau of S-curve adoption yet.

kkielhofner 4y ago
Address != user and we both know it's trivial to generate as many addresses as you want. Here's another chart: https://etherscan.io/chart/active-address https://etherscan.io/chart/active-address All time high is 1m addresses actually used in any 24 hour period, which is a significant outlier. The average is closer to 400k-500k. And another: https://etherscan.io/chart/tx https://etherscan.io/chart/tx 1.7m ATH daily transactions with the average being around 1m. I'm not exactly a statistician but a simple breakdown could be 500k people doing two transactions per day. Factoring in adoption is likely heavily weighted towards individual users (in the DAU sense) transacting with multiple addresses I think it's safe to assume the mapping between active addresses and users is some fraction - 1/2, 1/3, 1/4, etc. Being conservative and favoring Ethereum in this 250k DAUs for total on-chain activity encompassing all activity across the entire platform. You can look at cheap and "high" traffic sidechains, L2s, etc and pretty quickly determine that the number of DAUs across the entire ecosystem is in the low single digit millions at best. To be really fair let's say it's 10m - that's .02% of internet users daily. Even if we use your total addresses and assume each address is a user 210m users across the 5b people on the internet represents an adoption rate of 4.2% of internet users ever transacting with the network across the seven years of existence. In my original comment I said 99% of internet users wouldn't notice if it all disappeared. Looking at the numbers I think this was charitable. So yeah, abysmal.