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> China will almost certainly invade in the next decade Unfortunately, a decade is optimistic now. Given rising instability in China, it will probably be less
by chaostheory 4y ago
> China will almost certainly invade in the next decade
Unfortunately, a decade is optimistic now. Given rising instability in China, it will probably be less than 5 years. I believe the DOD has updated their estimate
- thelittleone 4y agoI disagree and I hope I'm right. Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion for decades. China will be observing Russia / Ukraine and although they may suffer less from corruption and military rot, they will be aware of the power of an enemy fighting for survival and freedom against a tyrannical invader.
- 6stringmerc 4y agoAlso there’s no doubt in my mind they are bitter because China wanted to be the country to get away with an illegal invasion in the eyes of the western world, and Putin already cashed that chip. Now to do so would basically let China and Russia give the world a reason to cut them off together. Yeesh.
- rjtavares 4y agoI'm not optimistic. China learned that the West won't get troops involved directly, and Taiwan doesn't have a land border with a nearby friendly airport you can use to supply them with weapons (check https://twitter.com/GotfrydKarol/status/1588556253760225281 https://twitter.com/GotfrydKarol/status/1588556253760225281).
- chaostheory 4y agoI hope that you’re right as well. I think you would be right if the CCP still existed and was ruled by a committee. Unfortunately, China is a dictatorship run by Xi now, and his opposition seems too weak to fight now. The more power is centralized the more it exacerbates mistakes and bad decisions. Sadly, the era of Deng Xiaoping’s pragmatism is over.
- remarkEon 4y agoThere's only two months out of the year, October and April, where the weather across the straight is calm enough to support an actual amphibious invasion. Meaning, we'll probably know ahead of time if they're going to do it. But, I agree with you.