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I'm really worried that cheap, abundant and reliable is not something our defense industry is capable of. - As a result of deindustrialization, we can't ramp u
by rsj_hn 4y ago
I'm really worried that cheap, abundant and reliable is not something our defense industry is capable of.
- As a result of deindustrialization, we can't ramp up production of critical components. We make up for that by prepositioning supply depots around the world, and these depots allow a brigade or so to fight for a few weeks. But once that runs out, things get hairy. See this article: https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-states-running-out-weapons-send-ukraine https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-states-running-out-weap... which talks about "surge" capability after a four year ramp up time and also here: https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/us-not-ready-peer-peer-fight-europe https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/us-not-ready-peer-peer...
- We have little sea lift capacity to move gear around to the hot spot even if we were able to produce it in large quantities. https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/12/31/the-us-military-ran-the-largest-stress-test-of-its-sealift-fleet-in-years-its-in-big-trouble/ https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/12/31/the-us-military... see also https://gcaptain.com/new-report-says-us-navy-capacity-is-very-weak/ https://gcaptain.com/new-report-says-us-navy-capacity-is-ver...
A nice summary of US military logistics is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIpPuJ_r8Xg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIpPuJ_r8Xg
- US gear has a reputation of being expensive to maintain and breaking down easily, even though it is generally best in class.
- We critically rely on air dominance
Basically we've optimized our military for global police actions by pre-positioning small amounts of troops and supplies around the world, rather than maintaining an industrial base with a large amount of slack and the ability to quickly ramp up production to support a sustained conflict. At some point an adversary is going to call our bluff with a major sustained conflict - and sufficient AA defenses to deny us air dominance. Then people will realize how hollowed out our defense industry has become, and they'll look at the huge amount we spend on defense and how little we are getting in return for that investment.