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No, I don't agree with you. Solana is only worth $33 right now at the current spot rate, but at the volume that would need to be liquidated to pay off Alameda'
by gamblor956 4y ago
No, I don't agree with you.
Solana is only worth $33 right now at the current spot rate, but at the volume that would need to be liquidated to pay off Alameda's debts, the price would crash to pennies because the amount would represent over half of the daily trading volume in Solana for the past month. (For comparison, in the stock market, selling the equivalent a single-digit % of the daily volume of a stock can tank the stock.)
Similarly, Alameda owns 80% of FTT, which has a 24h trading volume of less than 20% of Alameda's debts, and fewer than 250 active daily traders. It would be literally worthless if Alameda tried to liquidate enough to pay off its debts. And as the linked blog points out, FTT is just a shitcoin exchanged between two related entities on their accounting books, meaning that at least $5.8 billion of the value of FTT, i.e., 80% of the putative value, is purely made-up.
OTOH, as the Voyager debt was collateralized entirely with shitcoins, it's possible that the other $7+ billion in Alameda debt was also collateralized in shitcoins. If that's the case, than Alameda should be solvent because it appears they actually have about $100m in cash assets. But if not, they are legally insolvent.