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Too-low unemployment rate is one of the signals for a possible coming recession. The idea is that people are too worried about getting a new job after leaving
by Izkata 4y ago
Too-low unemployment rate is one of the signals for a possible coming recession. The idea is that people are too worried about getting a new job after leaving their current one, or are less able to handle periods with no income, so job mobility is low.
Unemployment rates for the past 70 years with recessions marked: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
- PaulHoule 4y agoIt's a little hard to believe right now. Normal employers are struggling to fill positions at supermarkets, salt mines, medical device factories, hair salons, restaurants, bus companies and other firms in my area. If you believe the business cycle is like "economy runs too hot and inflation is high, the fed pulls back and crashes the economy, the economy gradually grows back to full capacity" then the low unemployment is a sign you're at a particular point in that cycle.