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Has there ever been a recession so widely accepted and talked about before it kicked in? I mean that honestly; I know there's a downturn and it'll probably con

Has there ever been a recession so widely accepted and talked about before it kicked in? I mean that honestly; I know there's a downturn and it'll probably continue, but my instinct is that something so widely talked about and accepted will probably not be as bad as it seems. Again I have no proof and maybe my instincts are totally wrong, but that's the feeling

bryanlarsen 4y ago
It's very common for recessions to be widely talked about before they happen. I first heard talk about the upcoming housing bubble burst in 2003, five years before the bubble actually burst. "Economists have predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions" - Paul Samuelson
- randomdata 4y ago
  > I first heard talk about the upcoming housing bubble burst in 2003, five years before the bubble actually burst. 2006 is when the housing bubble was pierced. It took another couple of years to fully deflate, so bursting isn't likely the best depiction of the event, but typically when we talk about bubbles bursting we refer to the first moment of weakness, not the tail end. It was the securities market that crashed fast and hard five years later. The housing market crash played a role in that happening, I'm sure, but isn't housing itself.
  - mgkimsal 4y ago
    I first learned what 'no doc' loans where in 2004. I worked inside a mortgage company for a while, and was a bit shocked by some of the numbers I saw. BUT... I don't think a housing bubble/crash was a foregone conclusion in 2003/2004, but warning signs were there and got louder over time.
    - bryanlarsen 4y ago
      The housing bubble occupied the front cover of the economist several times in 2004.
deleted 4y ago
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lamontcg 4y ago
> I mean that honestly; I know there's a downturn and it'll probably continue, but my instinct is that something so widely talked about and accepted will probably not be as bad as it seems. Again I have no proof and maybe my instincts are totally wrong, but that's the feeling Pretty much the center of opinion in mid-2006 was that the housing market was in a "slowdown" but that any recession would be brief, talk of "soft landings" and everything else. Everyone could see that it was rolling over, but there was a lot of optimistic talk about it. Your opinion here is almost exactly the opinion seen 6-12 months before a strong recession. There was some discussion of a contraction/recession due to the spike in commodities around 2014 by economists, but that never quite developed into a broad common opinion that a recession was due. And there was no Fed rate hike cycle starting then (since the Fed knew that inflation that was confined to commodities would be its own tax and brake on the economy, in the absence of other measures of inflation taking off).

bryanlarsen 4y ago

It's very common for recessions to be widely talked about before they happen. I first heard talk about the upcoming housing bubble burst in 2003, five years before the bubble actually burst. "Economists have predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions" - Paul Samuelson

randomdata 4y ago
> I first heard talk about the upcoming housing bubble burst in 2003, five years before the bubble actually burst. 2006 is when the housing bubble was pierced. It took another couple of years to fully deflate, so bursting isn't likely the best depiction of the event, but typically when we talk about bubbles bursting we refer to the first moment of weakness, not the tail end. It was the securities market that crashed fast and hard five years later. The housing market crash played a role in that happening, I'm sure, but isn't housing itself.
- mgkimsal 4y ago
  I first learned what 'no doc' loans where in 2004. I worked inside a mortgage company for a while, and was a bit shocked by some of the numbers I saw. BUT... I don't think a housing bubble/crash was a foregone conclusion in 2003/2004, but warning signs were there and got louder over time.
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    The housing bubble occupied the front cover of the economist several times in 2004.

deleted 4y ago

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lamontcg 4y ago

> I mean that honestly; I know there's a downturn and it'll probably continue, but my instinct is that something so widely talked about and accepted will probably not be as bad as it seems. Again I have no proof and maybe my instincts are totally wrong, but that's the feeling Pretty much the center of opinion in mid-2006 was that the housing market was in a "slowdown" but that any recession would be brief, talk of "soft landings" and everything else. Everyone could see that it was rolling over, but there was a lot of optimistic talk about it. Your opinion here is almost exactly the opinion seen 6-12 months before a strong recession. There was some discussion of a contraction/recession due to the spike in commodities around 2014 by economists, but that never quite developed into a broad common opinion that a recession was due. And there was no Fed rate hike cycle starting then (since the Fed knew that inflation that was confined to commodities would be its own tax and brake on the economy, in the absence of other measures of inflation taking off).