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Overall unemployment and job opening numbers are still fine, at least in the US. The headlines are a handful of high-profile previous market darlings that overh
by nonameiguess 4y ago
Overall unemployment and job opening numbers are still fine, at least in the US. The headlines are a handful of high-profile previous market darlings that overhired like crazy and added 20-50% headcount during the pandemic. They're not indicative of any kind of trend, just like the great resignation panic wasn't, either, and labor force participation declines overall tracked at about the same rate as they have for decades. Trend lines are bumpy, but they're still generally moving at any smoothed multiyear line as they have for a long time. The only real outlier is headline CPI inflation, but even that bumped up mostly earlier in the year and hasn't stayed high, though the way it's reported "year over year" means it'll look that way until a year after the initial shock unless prices actually go down again, which is unlikely due to ratchet effect.
Other than inflation, most of what we're seeing is just regression to the mean after a lot of shit went bonkers during the pandemic.
The "mean" for software jobs is still about the best sector job market the world has ever seen outside of the last two years of software jobs and 2005-era mortgage finance. Maybe early Iraq War oil exploration, but you had to move to the Dakotas or bumfuck West Texas if you wanted in on that.