3 ms·

Employment is a lagging indicator.

• osigurdson 4y ago
  The stock market is a leading indicator however. While down 20%, it's still above pre-pandemic highs. I don't the stock market is screaming severe recession at the moment.
  • pclmulqdq 4y ago
    If the recession fear-mongering thesis is right, the stock market is at a local maximum right now because of several mispricings: stock markets have priced in a lower "pivot" from the fed than there will be, and there's a lot of "dip buying" - pent up demand that has stayed out of the market so far. These two factors give you the expectation for another 20-30% drop in the S&P. If the "what recession" thesis is right, chances are this was just a price correction, where companies' values are adjusted based on non-infinite time horizons. Stocks may still drop a bit as this correction finishes and earnings some in, but they are equally likely to rise. There's a chance that the fear mongers are right.
    • osigurdson 4y ago
      Of course there is a chance the pessimists are correct. After all, that is largely the consensus view.